The Governor of the Bank of Japan Kazuo Ueda answers questions during conversations of governors about Japanese inflation and monetary policy at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the world group of Bank Bank 2024 in Washington, October 23, 2024.
Kaylee Greenlee Beal Reuters
The Bank of Japan raised rates of 25 base points on Friday to 0.5%, increasing its policy rate to the highest level from 2008, because it tries to normalize its monetary policy.
This move is consistent with the expectations resulting from the CNBC survey from January 15-20 The overwhelming majority of economists predict the journey.
In his statement, the boy revealed that the decision was a division of 8-1, and a member of the board of Toyoaki Nakamura separately.
Nakamura said that the central bank should introduce a change in politics only after confirming the growth of the earning force of companies from reports that will be performed by the next meeting of monetary policy.
After the decision, Japanese yen Weakened marginally for trade in 156.09 in relation to the dollar, while the reference point of the country Nikkei 225 The stock market rate increased by 0.59%.
The profitability of 10-year-old Japanese government bonds increased by 1.8 basic point to 1.223%.
Older BIJ officials, including the governor of Kazuo Ueda and deputy governor Ryozo Himino, indicated the readiness of the central bank to raise their feet.
The boy will carefully observe “Shunto” pay negotiations and hopes to see “strong wages' increases in the tax year in 2025, Himino said in a speech for business leaders on January 14.
In the note 21 January, Vincent Chung, portfolio manager in the field of diverse income bond strategy in T. Rowe Price, said that after reaching the rate increase, “a series of gradual increases would take place, potentially bringing politics to 1% to the end of the year. “
He added that the principle indicator can even exceed 1%, because it is closer to the lower end of the neutral range of the boy.
In September, a member of the board of BJ Naoki Tamura a neutral indicator said “It would be at least about 1 percent”, although the boy has no official neutral rate forecast.
Chung noticed that although Japanese officials indicated that the variability of the yen was significant, any significant currency intervention similar to last year seems unlikely.
In July last year Jen reached the weakest level compared to the dollar since 1986reaching 161.96. Japanese authorities later he confirmed that they released 5.53 trillion yenSo $ 36.8 billion to raise Jen in July.
Japan spent over 15.32 trillion yen ($ 97.06 billion) to raise the currency during 2024.
Chung said that inflation in the USA may increase later in this quarter and in connection with a permanent economic growth, it can exert pressure up on yields that could strengthen the dollar – the weakening of Jen.
“Investors should also take into account that with potential serious changes in trade policy and the Fed approaching the break, a double -sided risk risk is probably higher this year than in 2024, therefore we expect that we expect that the volatility in USD realized /JPY will remain high in a high height 2025 – he sums up.