Parsa/EPA-EFE/REX/Shutterstock“This is certainly one way of focusing our minds – and wallets! Donald Trump makes us a favor, if We choose to think about it this way. And we can also look on the bright side. Otherwise, these times are too dark. “
The words of a diplomat from a large European country, speaking after Donald Trump excluded military assistance to touch Ukraine on Monday. He wanted not to be baptized, so he could share his thoughts more free.
The ruthlessness and pace of change in Washington can be dizzying. Not only for news consumers, but also for politicians.
Europe is struggling to respond effectively.
There was a fury of diplomatic activity: bilateral telephone calls on a late night, European pursuits in London and Paris, meetings of NATO Defense Ministers in Brussels. This Thursday is planned and a summit for EU Emergency Security.
This is a huge moment in European history.
Most European countries believe that the security of the whole of Europe, not only the sovereignty of Ukraine, is at risk-Russia wants to dismantle a western balance of power, on the spot since the end of the Cold War.
Washington, which has Europe's back in terms of security and defense after World War II, is now emerging “not to be interested in the fate of Europe”, according to the man who should be the next leader of the largest economy on the continent, Friedrich Mertz of Germany.
But what do all major European meetings and meetings actually achieve?
Only a few hours before Washington stops military assistance to KyivThe United Kingdom Prime Minister Sir Kiir Starmer, who takes a leading role in Europe over Ukraine, announced it was a time for “action rather than words”S Meanwhile, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said Europe should turn Ukraine into “steel dicrobra”, with emergency, additional arms supplies.
Can the continent really act as such? Europe is an sum of different countries with budgets of different sizes and diverse domestic policy and priorities.
PA mediaThe goal of Europe to undertake and this defense is also two times:
First, to show Donald Trump that – according to the UK Prime Minister – Europe, Europe will already make the “heavy lift” to defend itself. Europe hopes to persuade Trump to restart his military support to Ukraine and maintain the US reserve security for Europe as a whole if he believes they no longer “release” from the United States.
But also, European leaders will have to urgently raise their own defenses and support for Kiev if Donald Trump moves away from Ukraine and further broader than Europe more.
Not only for Washington Europe thinks it makes sense to prove.
Russia is also watching.
The various high -profile, major European emergency meetings now have to give fast, impressive, practical results, otherwise in the eyes of the Kremlin Europe, Europe seems weak and vulnerable.
Moscow has already abused the “splits” that she sees in Western unity.
Donald Trump says, President of Ukraine dictator.
Russia knows that for all Europe's conversations, for now, every security expert you are talking to is firmly defending itself, admitting that it still needs the United States in the short to the average Europe.
That is why last week in Washington we saw the French President and Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, separately, Leading Donald Trump.
The United States has filled the yawning gaps in European defense, left for years of chronically insufficient investment since the end of the Cold War.
The number of troops in Europe has declined with the end of a summons in most European countries. The United States has approximately 100,000 soldiers and nuclear weapons in different parts of Europe according to NATO nuclear sharing policy. Many of them are in a non -nuclear, major European rule, Germany, who is afraid of being heavily exposed to Russia, should Donald Trump withdraw support.
If the United Kingdom and France are able to gather what they call the “Coalition of Desire” – European countries that accept to send even a modest number of peacekeeping troops to Ukraine after ending the fire – this can stretch European armies and reveal gaps in NATO's defense.
That is why Poland does not want to engage troops to this “coalition”. It says he has to keep the soldiers at home, to defend themselves against Russia. He also argues that the United States will not pull its troops from Eastern Europe.
But Europe also relies on the United States for military capabilities that guarantee the smooth performance of operations. They are known as “Anablers”.
Ukraine bends strongly at American intelligence, for example, to maintain a strong hand against Russia.
A European power to maintain peace or “reassurance” in Ukraine will need US support to establish an air shield over Ukraine. Europe lacks air-to-air loading opportunities, as well as ammunition that could bring out air protection in Russia if necessary.
These auxiliaries “cannot be purchased quickly for local cash,” as a European politician handed me to me.
That is why the United Kingdom, France and others in Europe are so many willing to keep the United States on board for as long as possible.
“Some of my respected European counterparts probably need to restrain themselves from Twitter in anger,” a disappointed diplomat from a high -ranking people told me.
We were discussing European outrage in the treatment of the President of Ukraine by the US President and Vice President in the Oval Cabinet on Friday.
“True leadership is not about starting steam online. It's in finding the right words for constructive movement forward, however complicated the situation.
“Do we need the duration of the United States in Ukraine and Europe? Do we have more to do with the US than with China? These are the main issues we should keep in mind.”
Another major question for Europe is, of course, how much money it takes and how quickly to increase defense.
In Ukraine, Europe can quite easily replace current support in the United States if it puts it on it.
Germany is the largest military assistance donor to Ukraine after the United States. If other European powers followed its leading role, it is said that the protection of Ukraine will be covered for the foreseeable future.
Berlin and other countries in Northern Europe express resentment against France, for example, which they say speaks great about the protection of Ukraine – and is strong in leadership and strategy – but has actually given relatively little.
As for the wider defense costs, the head of the EU Commission Ursula von der Leyen said on Tuesday that “Europe is in the era of re-fittings.”
She suggested that the EU itself could mobilize a total of 800 billion euros for defense costs through:
- Using your joint budget more creatively
- Providing € 150 billion loans in favor of EU defense as a whole, for example, in the air and missile defense, anti-wisdom and military mobility
- Stopping EU fiscal rules to allow individual EU countries to spend more on defense
EU leaders will discuss her proposals and others at their meeting on Thursday – including whether frozen Russian assets in Europe can be used for funding for Ukraine.
But the potential and very public European splits are great. Many are nourished by the domestic policy of Member States.
Hungary, near the Russian administration and Donald Trump, spoke in the wheel of almost every EU debate to help Ukraine. Brussels fears Slovakia goes the same way.
Countries near Russia's borders do not need to explain to voters why defense costs should be high. Small, exposed Baltic nations Estonia and Lithuania already spend more than 3% of GDP for defense. They want to raise this to 5% in the near future.
Meanwhile, major European economies Italy and Spain, geographically much further than Russia, fail to spend the minimum NATO requirement of 2% of GDP for defense.
In Germany, France and the United Kingdom, according to a study by the Focaldata research group based in London, most voters want to maintain or reduce defense costs, preferring their government to focus on other voter priorities.
But NATO Secretary General Mark Rute warns Europeans to wake up and smell coffee brewing in Washington and Moscow.
European nations need to spend more than 3% of GDP now in order to effectively deduct the continent from their deep US reading, he says.
If Donald Trump is completely withdrawn from Europe, it doesn't matter Ukraine, it would mean spending 4-6% of GDP, according to defense experts: political, social and economic earthquake in Europe, hope they will not have to stand up.