Can the President-elect live up to Ghana's high expectations?

Ghana's former president John Mahama won last month's election in a landslide, but he will be under enormous pressure to live up to voters' expectations when he takes office on Tuesday.

After more than three years of economic misery, Ghanaians want a quick solution.

Mahama returned to power after eight years in opposition, running what political analyst Nansata Yakubu described as a “masterclass” in campaigning.

He defeated Vice President Mahamudu Bawumia with 56.6% of the vote to 41.6% to achieve the biggest victory by a candidate in 24 years.

Mahama's party, the National Democratic Congress (NDC), also managed to win an overwhelming majority in parliament, securing 183 seats out of 276.

They are one seat short of the two-thirds majority needed to pass laws and approve budgets and contracts without the votes of lawmakers on the other side of the political divide.

The result of one parliamentary seat is yet to be announced due to discrepancies. Four other seats are contested in court by the NDK.

But voter turnout was lower than in the 2020 election, particularly in some of Bawumia's New Patriotic Party (NPP) heartlands, suggesting some people there – disillusioned with her performance in government – remained home.

As Mahama's supporters celebrated his victory, Belinda Amuzu – a teacher in the northern city of Tamale, a Mahama stronghold – summed up their hopes.

“I expect the new government to change the economy so that the difficulties will decrease. He should also prosecute corrupt officials so that it will be a lesson to others,” she told the BBC.

“Hardship” has become a common phrase in Ghana since the economy bottomed out in 2022, causing a cost-of-living crisis that destroyed Bawumia's reputation as an “economic savant” – and led to his defeat at the hands of Mahama.

However, during his address to the nation on Friday, outgoing President Nana Akufo Addo said he was leaving behind a recovered economy.

“We leave the country with gross international reserves of almost $8bn (£6.4bn). This is more than the $6.2 billion my administration inherited in 2017,” he said.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has disbursed about $1.9 billion to support the country's economic recovery since Ghana joined the program in 2022.

However, the opposition MPs do not agree with Akufo Addo's assessment.

“The people of Ghana have already given their verdict on the true state of the nation and that verdict was very clear. Economic difficulties, huge debts, high youth unemployment, hopelessness and others,” said Minority MP Emmanuel Armagh Kofi Boa.

Ghanaian economist Prof. Godfred Bockpin told the BBC that the challenges facing the next government were enormous.

“What Ghana needs right now is credible leadership, lean governance and efficiency in public service delivery. Without it, there can be no future,” he said.

Mahama promised to reduce the size of the cabinet from more than 80 to about 60, but Prof. Bokpin argued that it should be even smaller, while political analyst Dr Kwame Assah-Asante stressed the need for appointments to be based on merit rather than loyalty.

Mahama will be flanked by former Education Minister Naana Jane Opoku-Agyemang, who is poised to become Ghana's first female Vice President.

Dr Yakubu said her appointment was not “symbolic” and she was not a person who could be “manipulated”.

“We have a fantastic first female vice president in the person of Prof. Naana Jane Opoku-Agyemang,” she told BBC Focus on Africa podcast.

Mahama served his first four-year term as president after winning in 2012, but lost his re-election bid in 2016 when Nana Akufo-Addo rose to power with Bawumia as his running mate.

Dr Yakubu said Mahama contested the 2016 election. based on his track record of building roads, schools and hospitals, but the voters rejected him as their mantra then was: “We don't eat infrastructure”.

But, she said, during the Covid pandemic, voters appreciated the infrastructure built by his government, especially hospitals.

This – coupled with the fact that the economy had fallen into deep crisis under the current government, forcing it to seek a $3bn (£2.4bn) bailout from the IMF – led to Mahama's re-election, Dr Yakubu added.

She told the BBC that Mahama is now expected to fulfill his campaign promise to create jobs to reduce the unemployment rate from almost 15% and ease the cost of living crisis by removing some taxes – or what Ghanaians call “nuisance taxes”.

Mahama has promised to turn Ghana into a “24-hour economy” by creating night jobs in both the public and private sectors. He said he would give tax incentives to businesses to stay open at night and lower electricity prices for them.

His critics, however, have their doubts, pointing out that Ghana suffered its worst electricity crisis during his first term and blackouts were so bad that Mahama joked at the time that he was known as “Mr Dumsor”. – “dum” means “off” and “sor” means “on” in the local Twi language.

He promised to scrap several taxes – including the much-criticized electronic tax on mobile transactions and the one on carbon emissions produced by vehicles powered by petrol or diesel.

Prof. Bokpin said he doubted the Mahama administration would be able to deliver on its promises.

“They haven't done a cost-benefit analysis. There is no budget space to turn these promises into reality,” he said.

Prof. Bokin believes that full economic recovery and growth will take a long time.

He said: “If you're talking about economic transformation and inclusive productivity growth, you're looking at probably 15 years and more to do the right things consistently.

“In Ghana, we have not been able to do the right thing consistently for a long time. We do the right things between elections and then we screw up.”

But Mahama is confident he will prove his critics wrong, saying he intends to renegotiate the terms of the IMF loan so that money is freed up for “social intervention programmes” in a country of 7.3 million people in poverty.

In an interview before the election, Mahama told the BBC that the IMF wanted “some balance” in government finances.

“If you're able to reduce spending and you're able to increase revenue and increase non-tax revenue, you'll be able to create a balance sheet,” he said.

Dr Assah-Asante said Mahama's experience as a former president will help him navigate Ghana through the turbulent waters.

“Of course, he will probably encounter difficulties, but he has what it takes to turn things around,” the analyst added.

Apart from the economy, corruption is one of the biggest problems facing Ghana, but not everyone is convinced that Mahama will be able to deal with the scourge.

Mahama's previous stints in government – as vice president and president – were plagued by allegations of corruption, although he has consistently denied wrongdoing.

In 2020 A UK court has found that aviation giant Airbus used bribes to secure contracts with Ghana for military aircraft between 2009 and 2015.

An investigation was then launched in Ghana, but the Office of the Special Prosecutor, in a ruling announced just months before the election, concluded that there was no evidence that Mahama himself was involved in corrupt activities.

The outgoing government was also dogged by allegations of corruption, including the purchase of spare parts for ambulances at a cost of $34.9 million and a controversial national cathedral project that saw $58 million spent with no progress on its construction.

Mahama has promised his government to tackle corruption and ensure officials are prosecuted for wrongdoing.

“We are thinking about special courts,” he told the BBC.

Mahama has already established what he calls Operation Recover All Loot (Oral) aimed at investigating government funds and assets allegedly stolen by defunct government officials.

Dr Assah-Asante said Mahama should demand financial accountability from his outgoing government during the handover phase so that “whatever went wrong, he can fix it” as soon as his government takes office next month.

The analyst added that Mahama who will be discovered on Tuesday when President Akufo-Addo stepped down after his two terms in office, he had no choice but to meet the expectations of Ghanaians – or else they would “punish his government the way they punished the NPP”.

Mahama succinctly acknowledged this in his victory speech, saying, “Expectations for Ghanaians are very high and we cannot afford to disappoint them.

“Our best days are not behind us; our best days are ahead of us. Always forward – never backward.”