The Iranian rocket system is displayed next to the banner with the image of the highest leader Iran Ayatollah Ali Chamenei and Hasbollah leader in Lebanon Hassan Nasrallah, on the street in Tehran, Iran, October 2, 2024.
Majid Asgaripour By Reuters
The fate of Iran may look completely different during the second term of office of President Donald Trump – whether for a good or very sick Tehran.
In the surprising movements, Trump has expressed the desire to conclude a contract with Iran several times – recently by letter to Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Chamenei last week, asking that two leaders “negotiate” in the nuclear program of the Middle East. Unlike seven years earlier, in 2018, when Trump, who pulled the US from the original nuclear agreement of 2015, causing Nosedive in American and Iranian relations.
“I would like to conclude an agreement with Iran about non-humanial. I would prefer to bombing hell, “Trump said in an interview with New York Post at the beginning of February.
However, Trump at the same time re -introduced a campaign of the sanctions of “maximum pressure” in the country exporting oil since the regaining office. Meanwhile, the highest leader of Iran, Ayatollah Chamenei, refused to give up Tehran's nuclear program and rejected Trump's range. On Saturday, the Iranian leader condemned the rehearsals of the nameless “intimidating rule” to conclude a contract and swear that his government would not negotiate under pressure.
Iran is under pressure -from their own spiral economy, a dramatic loss of regional allies, such as Bashar al-Assad in Syria, and weakening the forces of proxies such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, to Israelis.
But although his strength in these areas decreased significantly than during Trump's first term, its lever in another aspect – the volume of the nuclear material he produced – is now much higher.
“Significant concerns” about the development of weapons
Iran enriches and accumulates uranium at the highest level, which prompted the International Atomic Energy Agency, the UN NUCLED Organ Orgdog to issue numerous warnings.
“Iran remains the only state of nuclear weapon enriching uranium to this level, increasing significant fears of the potential development of weapons,” UN Read from March 3.
The photo taken on November 10, 2019 shows employees at the construction site at the Iranian Bushehr nuclear power plant during the official ceremony of starting work for the second reactor at the facility. Bushehr currently operates on imported fuel from Russia, which is strictly monitored by the International UN Atomic Energy Agency.
Atta Kenare AFP by Getty Images
“Iran is still enriched (uranium) as part of the lever building exercises”, Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa program andT Chatham House, said CNBC. “The more he has, the more it can relieve, and this may seem like a compromise for any such contract that will leave the line.”
Tehran insists that his program serves only civil energy purposes. But Iran's nuclear enrichment reached 60% cleanliness, according to IAEA – dramatically higher than the established enrichment limit In the nuclear agreement in 2015 and a short technical step from the level of cleanliness of the weapon class of 90%.
“The 60% enriching country is a very serious thing. Only bombs producing countries reach this level“Said the head of Maea Rafael Grossi in 2021.
Pursuant to the 2015 nuclear agreement, formally called a common comprehensive action plan (JCPOA), Iran undertook to limit the levels of 3.67% uranium at 300 kilograms.
Iran it now has almost 22 times this material, Energy intelligence informs about Maea. And Trump did not rule us out of Israeli military strikes in Iran to prevent the building of the bomb.
Mutual distrust
Despite this, in Iran there is a dominant preference to conclude a contract that would raise sanctions, says Bijan Khajehpour, an economist and managing partner in Viennese Eurasian consulting partners.
Problem?
“There is deep distrust on both sides,” said Khajehpour CNBC. “Especially the public episode of Zelenskyy in the oval office reminded Iranians that it would be difficult to trust in a potential future contract with the Trump administration.”
A visit to the White House by the Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky unexpectedly passed on in a hot and public clash with Trump at the end of February.
“On the other hand,” added Khajehpour, “potential raising or reduction of sanctions would be necessary for the trajectory of the Iranian economy.”
But the United States and Trump now have an overwhelming lever, says Behnam Ben Taleblu, a senior member of the Democracy Defense Foundation.
“President Trump now has a much larger lever than when he first entered the office in 2017 against Iran,” said Ben Taleblu. “Israel reduced some of the regional proxies of the Islamic Republic, and structural problems, and the persistent American sanctions maintained the Iranian economy on the rear foot.”
“And although the idea of increased Iran's nuclear ability as a lever is not lost to me, their nuclear card is currently their only game card,” he said.
Tehran buys time?
In relation to the Iranian opposition of the Supreme Leader in the face of negotiations under pressure, Behnam claimed that “Islamic Republic always says no until he said like that.” He also argued that the country “still enriches uranium and … increases the supplies of highly enriched uranium because it wants nuclear weapons,” and not because he just wants a leverage in conversations.
“Tehran wants to imprison Trump in conversations, whether directly or through Russian mediation,” he said, referring to the reported role of Russia to play Trump's administration in potential negotiations.
“This is not intended to solve the nuclear matter, but the concentration of maximum pressure and generation of obstacles to the potential strike of Israel or American.”
Instead of choosing a contract or not to have an agreement at all, the Iran government probably chooses the third option simply “murder” and buying time, holds Vakil Chatham House.
She said that “building a further lever while the region and the West perceive Iran as weak”, as well as a better sense of priorities and conditions of negotiations of Trump.
In addition, “Iran will begin negotiations with Europe as a mechanism for dragging sanctions and maintaining the door to negotiations,” said Vakil, “Washington is developing its own strategy and priorities.”