China is continuing its nuclear expansion, strengthening its ties with Russia and increasing military pressure on Taiwan over the past year, according to a new Defense Department report that examines actions that are accelerating key areas of conflict with the United States.
The report released on Wednesday also noted that a recent spate of corruption allegations at China's powerful Central Military Commission, which oversees the People's Liberation Army, is hurting Beijing's military growth and could slow its modernization drive.
A senior defense official said China had made progress in some of its programs but regressed in others.
The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity to describe the U.S. assessment, warned that Beijing is working to develop a more diverse and technologically sophisticated nuclear force. While the expected number of nuclear warheads continues to rise, China is expanding its targeting capabilities.
Beijing will be able to pursue more different types of targets, inflict more damage and have more options for multiple rounds of counterattacks, the official said. The US is calling on China to be more transparent about its nuclear program and warning that America will defend its allies and retaliate accordingly.
China had more than 600 operational nuclear warheads by mid-2024, and the Pentagon expects it to have more than 1,000 by 2030, according to the report, which provides the US's annual assessment of China's military power and is required by Congress. China's stockpile of nuclear warheads is about 100 higher than last year's report showed, but that reflects a change in estimates, not the pace of production.
The Biden administration has worked to maintain a balance with China, building up the US military presence in the Asia-Pacific region to be ready to confront Beijing, while encouraging greater engagement between the two countries at the diplomatic and military levels.
This spike in negotiations has coincided with a decline in violent and risky interceptions of US aircraft since late 2023 compared to the previous two years. However, China continues to conduct what the US military considers “dangerous” flights near US and allied forces in the region.
The Pentagon's national defense strategy is built around the assessment that China poses the biggest security challenge to the US, and that the threat from Beijing affects how the US military is equipped and organized for the future.
Corruption in the PLA has led to the removal of at least 15 senior officials in a major reshuffle of China's defense ministry.
“This wave of corruption affects all services of the PLA and may have shaken Beijing's confidence,” the report said.
In June, China announced that former Defense Minister Li Shanfu and his predecessor Wei Fenghe had been expelled from the ruling Communist Party and charged with corruption. Last month, another senior official, Miao Hua, was suspended and placed under investigation, according to China's Ministry of Defense.
The US report points to a steady increase in China's military presence around Taiwan, a self-governing island that China claims as its own. It said China's navy is more active in the region and that crossings into the island's air defense identification zone have increased and major military exercises are being conducted in the area.
Just last week, a large deployment of Chinese naval forces and coast guard ships in the waters around Taiwan raised alarm as Taiwanese officials said it appeared China was simulating a blockade. Officials said about 90 ships were involved in what Taiwan called two walls designed to demonstrate that the waters belonged to China.
Taiwan seceded from Communist China in 1949 and rejected Beijing's demands to accept unification. China says it will do so by force if necessary, and leaders have said they want to be ready by 2027.
The United States is required by domestic law to help defend Taiwan and provide it with weapons and technology to deter an invasion.
The island democracy has been a major source of tension between Washington and Beijing for decades and is widely seen as the most likely cause of a potentially catastrophic US-China war.
More broadly, the report concluded that the PLA continued to pursue military capability development but “made uneven progress toward its 2027 modernization milestone.”
One area of expansion, the report said, is unmanned aircraft systems, which officials say are “rapidly approaching US standards.”
As for Russia, the report says that China is supportive Russia's war against Ukraine and sold dual-use goods to Russia, on which Moscow's military industry relies. Dual-use items can be used for both civilian and military purposes.
contributed to this report.