Chinese national flags of fluttering on boats near shipping containers at the Port of Yangshan near Shanghai, China, February 7, 2025.
Go Nakamura Reuters
Beijing – China's reaction to new US tariffs will probably focus on domestic stimuli and strengthening ties with trading partners, according to analysts based in Greater China.
A few hours after the US President Donald Trump announced an additional 34% tariff for China, the Chinese Ministry of Trade called the US to cancel the tariffsAnd vowed indefinite remedies. . sweeping US policy It has also erected new obligations in the European Union and the main Asian countries.
Chinese exports to the USA this year has already been affected by 20% additional tariffs, increasing the total shipping rate from China up to 54%Among the highest imposed by the Trump administration. An effective rate for individual product lines may vary.
But, as it was, the closure line Chinese statement He was a call to negotiate.
“I think that the purpose of China's response will not be a retaliation tariff or such funds in the near future,” said Bruce Pang, an assistant professor at CUHK Business School. This is, according to the translation of CNBC, a statement of the Chinese language.
Instead, Panang expects China to focus on improving their own economy by diversifying export places and products, as well as doubling its priority Increasing national consumption.
China, the second largest economy in the world, from September increases stimuli efforts, increasing the fiscal deficit, increasing the subsidy program for consumer trade and calling to stop the estate of real estate. In particular, the President of China XI Jinping had a rare meeting with technological entrepreneurs, including Alibaba The founder of Jack has in February, in the support show for the private sector.
The reversal of politics – from regulatory tightening in recent years – reflects how Beijing “predicts the upcoming slowdown and even export failure,” said China's chief economist Macquarie, Larry Hu in the report, before the latest Trump's tariff announcement. He pointed out that the 2021 export boom caused by the Pandemic Export Boom allowed Beijing “Start a mass regulatory campaign”.
“My view remains the same,” said Hu on Thursday We -Mail. “Beijing will use a national stimulus to balance the impact of tariffs so that they can still achieve the goal of” about 5%”growth.
Instead of retaliation tariffs, HU also expects Beijing to focus on using black lists, export control on critical minerals and probes to foreign companies in China. Hu also expects China to keep a strong yuan in relation to the American dollar and resist calls from retailers to lowering prices – as a way to push inflationary pressure on the USA
At the beginning of March, the most important China leaders announced the goal of about 5% gross domestic product growth, they required the task “”Very tedious work“To be achieved. The Ministry of Finance also indicated that maybe If necessary, increase fiscal support.
According to Goldman Sachs, about 20% of the Chinese economy consists of export. Earlier they estimated that new American tariffs in the amount of about 60% in China would reduce the actual GDP by about 2 percentage points. The company still maintains a year -round forecast by 4.5% GDP growth.
Change of global trade
It differs from the impact of tariffs in the first term of Trump, it is that China is not the only goal, but one of the swaths of countries where there are huge fees on export to the USA, some of these countries, such as Vietnam and Thailand, served as alternative routes for Chinese goods to reach the USA.
At the Chinese YIWU Export Center on Thursday, companies seemed nonchalant about the impact of new American tariffs due to their perception Foreign competitors will not gain advantage, said Cameron Johnson, an elderly partner based in Shanghai at the Tidalwave Solutions consulting company.
He pointed out that earlier the US had focused their trade funds on forcing companies to remove China from their supply chains and transition to other countries. However, he said that Chinese producers extended abroad along with this diversification.
“Reality is so (new tariff policy of the USA) generally gives China most Asia and Africa, and the US is not prepared,” said Johnson. He expects China not to make the situation unnecessarily difficult for American companies operating in this country and instead they will try to build other trade relations.
Since the first four -year term of Trump at the beginning of 2021
10 Member States of the Association of Southeast Asia Nations (ASEAN) joined China, Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand, creating the world's largest free trade block – Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (Przcet) – which were created at the beginning of 2022. The United States and India are not members of the country.
“Member states of the Przedscor will naturally deepen commercial connections,” said Yue Su, chief economist, China, in the Economist intelligence department on Thursday.
“This is also partly because China's economy may remain the most – or at least among the most – stable in relative categories, taking into account the strong involvement of the government in its growth purposes and readiness to implement fiscal policy means in the event of need,” she said.
Uncertainty remain
The degree to which all countries will be hit by tariffs this week remains uncertain, because Trump is widely expected to use duties as negotiating tactics, especially with China.
He said that last week the US could reduce the tariffs to China to help closes the Beijing agreement Bytedance to sell American operations Tiktok.
But the level of new tariffs for China was worse than many investors expected.
“In contrast to some optimistic market forecasts, we do not expect a two-sided US-china opportunity,” said on Thursday on Thursday, China chief economist at Nomura.
“We expect that the tensions between these two great economies will deteriorate significantly,” he said, “Especially since China is making great progress in advanced technology sectors, including AI and robotics.”