(Reuters) – Goldman Sachs said on Monday that the copper market is pricing in about 50% odds that a 10% US tariff on the metal will be in place by the end of the first quarter of this year.
Analysts at the US investment bank said in a client note that the estimate was similar to their own 50% subjective probability of an effective 10% tariff on copper by the end of the year.
Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange eased 0.3% to $9,167 a metric ton at 0706 GMT after hitting a one-month high last week. (MET/L)
President-elect Donald Trump returns to the White House later in the global day with an inauguration speech that traders will dissect for policies to be enacted on the first day. Trump has talked about tariffs of as much as 10% on global imports as well as 60% on Chinese goods and a 25% import surcharge on Canadian and Mexican products.
Goldman also noted that the oil market is pricing in an almost 40% chance of a 25% US tariff on Canadian goods including oil, against the bank's 15% subjective probability of an effective 25% tariff by the end of the year.
Brent crude futures were trading around $80.69 a barrel, while the more active US West Texas Intermediate crude April contract was flat at $77.36. (O/R)
The investment bank gave a 10% opportunity to introduce an effective 10% tariff on gold within the next 12 months. He said bullion's status as a financial asset made it likely to be exempt from broad tariffs.
Spot gold prices were up 0.3% at $2,708.77 an ounce while US gold futures were little changed at $2,749.70. (ED/)
The amount of gold stocks in COMEX-approved warehouses has increased by a third in the past six weeks as market players seek deliveries to hedge against the possibility of tariffs.
(Reporting by Ashitha Shivaprasad and Ishaan Arora in Bengaluru; Editing by Christopher Cushing)