Sanaa, Yemen Mansour Saleh, a 25-year-old history graduate from Sanaa, was deeply affected by the political and military developments in Syria.
“Strange”, “amazing” and “unexpected”, are some of the words he used to describe what happened in the country this month.
The the fall of Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad earlier in December he has established millions of Yemenis thinking about what is in store for their country.
Some say the fall of the Iran-allied Houthis in Yemen – who control Sanaa and much of northern and western Yemen – could be the “next shock” in the region.
“My friends have different opinions. Some called me, happy with the eclipse of the Syrian government, and others were saddened by such events. We are a very divided society,” Saleh said.
Weep for the fall of Damascus
The defeat of Al-Assad is a good thing for Houthi supporters who see themselves as part of the “opposition line” led by Iran against Israel and the United States.
Under al-Assad, Syria was seen as an important territory and a channel for the transfer of weapons between Iran, Iraq and Lebanon.
Abdulrahman Ali, 40 years old in Sanaa, says the end of the old Syrian government is a “big loss”.
“When I saw the news of the fall of Damascus to the Syrian army supported by Turkey, I cried. Personally, I don't care about Bashar. What is important is to continue to strengthen the axis of resistance,” Ali told Al Jazeera.
The Houthis, who took Sanaa's weapons in September 2014 and then, in 2015, he was forced out of the government-known around the world, and part of the Iranian axis of resistance, which includes the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, the Popular Mobilization Forces in Iraq, and the Lebanese Hezbollah. The former Syrian government was also considered part of the coalition.
The Houthi takeover led to a war in which the ousted government and its regional allies – led by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates – tried to regain control of Yemen.
In April 2022, the United Nations stopped the conflict, but control was divided between different groups, including the Houthis, and the Yemeni government and the Southern Transitional Council in the south and east.
Today, pro-Houthi Yemenis like Ali say the war will resume in Yemen.
“What is happening in Syria may encourage the anti-Ansar Allah groups to start a war,” he said, using the official name of the Houthis. “This will lead us into a new path of violence.”
Houthi leaders are not afraid of a resumption of fighting, Mohammed Ali al-Houthi, a senior member of the Houthi Supreme Political Council in Sanaa, said in a television interview on December 12.
He said the Houthis were ready if Yemen's “violence” resumed, using a term the Houthis use to attack the military they are fighting.
“The Yemeni people do not care about threats,” al-Houthi added. “Any stupid action by Israel's enemy against Yemen will trigger the (military) operations of the Yemeni army.”
'Ending Iran's presence'
On the other side of the Yemeni territory are millions of opposition to the Houthis who see the fall of al-Assad as a victory for freedom and the defeat of tyranny.
“Finally, the Syrian people have justice,” said Faisal Mohammed, a 39-year-old teacher in Taiz, a city home to anti-Houthi forces that suffered years of siege by the insurgent group. “The fall of Assad gives us hope that the Arab world can overcome oppression.”
Faisal Mohammed sees what is happening in Syria as a message to the Houthis.
“The Assads' regime has collapsed after 54 years … no matter how long the Houthis hold on, they will face the same fate.”
With Iran's support over the past decade, including equipment and experts, the Houthis have fought many battles against pro-government forces in Yemen and strengthened their control over large areas of Yemen.
The group appears safe, militarily and politically, and Saudi Arabia has for years been looking for a way out of Yemen, appearing close to an alliance with the Houthis at times. The anti-Houthi camp, on the other hand, is often seen as weak and divided, with many anti-Houthi Yemenis frustrated by the failures of their representatives.
In fact, it seemed that the government of Yemen should do so agreeing to some form of agreement by the Houthis or blocked by Saudi Arabia.
However, developments in many areas, including the great weakness of Iran and its allies due to their conflict with Israel, have given many in the anti-Houthi camp that the situation has changed.
“Hezbollah has suffered big losses in the hands of Israel, and the Assad regime has been overthrown. Iran will not do anything, “Faisal Mohammed said. “So, the Houthis will face the same situation, and this means that Iran's presence in Yemen will be removed.”
Mohammed Abdu, a Yemeni journalist based in Taiz who focuses on politics and war, told Al Jazeera that the war to oust the Houthis “will be difficult”.
“The Houthi army and its strength are huge. They have thousands of soldiers and weapons,” he said.
“However, the efforts of the Yemeni government and its regional and international allies can help the Houthis to be defeated.”
Warning
For some Yemenis, however, the fall of al-Assad is more of a warning than anything else.
“Syria shows us that removing a dictator is not the end of the story,” said Yunis Saleh, a shopkeeper in Sanaa. “What matters is what is coming. If Syria does not find peace, we will face endless violence.”
The war-weary Yemenis share this sentiment, regardless of political affiliation. For them, the fall of al-Assad is a reminder of the need for a solution to Yemen's decade-long crisis.
The war between the Saudi-backed Yemeni government and the Iran-allied Houthis has led to a political disaster.
The World Health Organization (WHO) he said in the month of March this year when the war in Yemen enters its 10th year, more than half of the people in the country are in need of help.
About 17.8 million people need health care, 50 percent of them are children; 4.5 million people are homeless; and more than 3,700 schools have been damaged or replaced, the UN said.
'Peace or force'
Abdulsalam Mohammed, head of the Yemeni Abaad Studies and Research Center, told Al Jazeera that the activities of the Houthis in the waters around Yemen, where the group has attacked ships allied with the Palestinians in Gaza under Israeli attack, have prompted international travel. . isolationism, and an anti-aircraft campaign led by the United States and the United Kingdom.
The Houthis have also carried out military and drone attacks on Israel, prompting Israel to attack Yemen.
After being removed by the US from its terrorist list in 2021, the Houthis were was renewed for last January.
“There is a national, regional and international decision to end the rule of the Houthis in Yemen, either peacefully or by force,” said Abdulsalam Mohammed. “Time will tell how this will play out.”
Abdulsalam Mohammed also believes that the withdrawal of the Houthis extends to the Gulf.
“Houthi drones and missiles have been threatening oil-producing countries in the Gulf,” said Abdulsalam Mohammed. “Therefore, when the opportunity comes to weaken the Houthis, the Gulf will make good use of it. In the same way, the Houthi opposition in Yemen has prioritized a military solution where the group can fall.”
The defeat of the “axis of resistance” in Syria and its loss in Lebanon could also pave the way for the fall of the Houthis in Yemen, according to Abdulsalam Mohammed.
“The Houthis have been looking for new allies, like Russia,” he said. “However, this does not prevent the fall of Hezbollah or the fall of the al-Assad regime from being repeated in Yemen.”
“This is a good opportunity for the Yemeni government to regain control of the regions that were conquered by the Houthis during the last years of war.”
But this may be easier said than done. There have been few signs that anti-Houthi forces are planning a major attack.
The Houthis control some of Yemen's most populous areas, but the region is also more mountainous and easier to defend than the flat terrain that the former Syrian rebels entered before the fall of Damascus. The Houthis are also supported by many prominent tribes in Yemen, especially the tribes surrounding Sanaa, who are vital to any chance of recapturing the capital.
Saleh, a history graduate from Sanaa, explained that the atmosphere in Yemen is calm at the moment, but added that “it could explode at any time”.
“The Houthis are waiting for a life and death battle, and their enemies are hesitant to start a war,” Saleh said. “It may begin at any time, but its end will be forever.”