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On the surface of the American economy, prices are higher. . The latest inflation data On Friday of the government, he showed a greater increase than the forecast. On Thursday, Nike said it took $ 1 billion because of the tariffs and the fact that The price increase has not yet been implemented.
In the American economy, in distribution networks managing inventory, there are generally fewer items due to the trade war, but more goods at which the prices of stickers are rising.
“We currently see how many customers increase prices,” said Ryan Martin, president of the distribution and implementation of logistics.
While the price tags are placed on the manufacturer's products, Martin said that in the last month his company began to renew “millions of product units for many customers”, items, from clothing to consumer products in a warehouse to obtain final delivery or immediate transport to shops.
He said that, depending on the product, prices raises range from 8%-15%.
“It causes additional inflation,” said Martin. He said that this is also happening in e-commerce, although the price change is reflected online, not on the product.
The new survey conducted by the distributors of America's footwear and retailers in terms of the quarter shows that 55% of respondents expect that their average retail price will increase between 6-10% in 2025 as a result of tariffs.
Martin says that the last time he saw that this amount of re -bailing was during the pandemic and then it was much higher.
“At that time, everything became more expensive, transport, labor and the amount of product,” he said. “We saw the growth of all products, including food and drinks,” he said. “Re -download was from 30-40%.”
These are not only higher prices, but less stocks
Thanks to the current fears of commercial uncertainty and softness, consumers manage retailers and production clients manage inventory by reducing the number of SKU and importing smaller SKUs. The Economic Analysis Office announced that the gross domestic product has shrunk by 0.5% in the first quarter of 2025.
“The overall trace of stocks is smaller,” said Martin. “You look now at three months of stocks compared to six.”
Dance of the supply chain from the warehouse sector and the growing number of empty shipping containers in ports indicate a more mild peak of the season (summer accumulation of stocks during shopping and holiday shopping).
According to the logistics index of logistics managers, the levels of warehouse reserves fell by 6% per month.
Comparing the readings from the first half of June to the later month, the increase in inventory began to slow down, which suggests that the growth at the beginning of June was temporary, according to Zachary Rogers, a supply chain management professor at Colorado State University. “Due to how long it takes wrestling to go through the systems, we have not seen any major changes in transport,” said Rogers. “The storage capacity moved from mild contraction to mild expansion.”
The data in the full month of June is not yet, but Rogers said that it is very unlikely that the results would change in any significant way. “We are far enough that we basically know where they will end,” he said.
Rogers explained that the mild expansion visible earlier this month was in line with the containers processed in ports. American importers were hesitating whether because of the tariffs due to full ocean freight orders. 50% tariff for Chinese goods is still too high for many retail sellers, even after a recent break in higher tariffs Donald Trump He threatened with Chinese goods.
They see the ports on the west coast now small tumor In the containers they begin to come on vacation. But based on the Port of Los Angeles Optimizer, which follows the ocean trade intended for the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, July Import will be lower than July 2024.
“This is noteworthy, because July to go to August is expected to expect numbers,” said Rogers.
The situation is different on the east coast.
The port of New York and New Jersey, the largest port on the east coast, published its monthly container data on Thursday, showing that the port processed 774 698 units equivalent to twenty feet or themes.
“The tariffs will certainly not affect us as much as on the west coast, because we do not rely on China as much as our counterparts on the west coast,” said CNBC Bethann Rooney, director of Port of New York and New Jersey. “We have already seen an increase in the number of volumes from Europe, Southeast Asia, India and Vietnam. I do not expect significant growth in July, but we will see strong volumes.”
But Rooney added that the change is relatively small when it comes to redirecting supply chain supply in Europe and Southeast Asia. “We see maybe 1% change of year to a year,” she said. “In total, it affects. But we certainly do not see a huge change in routing, although it is clear that many beneficial load owners (American companies) change acquisition or diversify their acquisition.”
Empty shipping containers sit longer
Another leading indicator of future freigh orders is the movement of emptying. An empty container trade is necessary to maintain an export flow. CNBC analysis of empty containers shows that there is no rush to leave the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach to return to complement.
During the pandemic of emptying, they were a priority to return to Asia so that they could be filled and exported back to the United States.
“The fact that so many empty containers are still sitting in ports also suggests that importers do not expect our normal season in August-shooting,” said Rogers.
Trucking and storage will see some activities at the wholesale/distribution level throughout the third quarter, thanks to the wave of goods entering the ports, with the goods ultimately moved to retail sellers in September and October. But Rogers added: “At this point it seems very unlikely that we can see the normal peak season.”
“Even currently, we already have a lot of stocks on hand, and thanks to the tariffs that are still binding, I would expect imports, especially those related to production, will be lower than expected at the beginning of the year,” he said.
Another warning sign is the dramatic decline of the average ocean freight indicator on the Trans-Pacific route from the Far East to the west of the United States from the previous spike in June. According to Peter Sand, the main shipping analyst at Xenet, average point points fell from the Far East to the west coast of the USA by 39% from June 1. “Transport on the west coast of the USA is a key battlefield for carriers when it comes to China's export, so the spot rates dropped harder and faster, when they prioritized that they had brought back to this trade after he reduced 145% of the tariffs,” he said.
Sand said it is only a matter of time before the forwarders do the same on the east coast of the USA, and the spot rates also begin to fall there rapidly.
This withdrawal from orders is carefully observed by economists. Oxford Economics wrote in recent attention that on the import side, consumer goods still fell with a decrease of $ 4.3 billion after a decrease in $ 33 billion in April. “This was partly balanced in cars, while other categories were mostly unchanged. We expect the imports to be lower during the year, because effective tariff rates are increased and the economy slows down,” he said.
“Necision is now the best decision with the broadcasters because of all tariff conversations,” said Martin. “Nobody knows what will happen tomorrow or do not understand the cost structure. In this case, it is better to have lean supplies,” he added.
Correction: According to the logistics index of logistics managers, the levels of storage reserves fell by 6% per month. Earlier version of this article Incorrect index name.
