Denmark struggles to keep calm in crisis over Trump's threat to seize Greenland

The gloomy January weather in Copenhagen matches the mood among Danish politicians and business leaders.

“We take this situation very, very seriously,” Foreign Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen said of Donald Trump's threats to acquire Greenland – and punish Denmark with high tariffs if it stands in the way.

But, he added, the government has “no ambition to escalate any war of words”.

Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen downplayed Trump's suggestion that the US might use military force to seize Greenland. “I don't have the fantasy to imagine that it will ever come to this,” she told Danish television.

And Lars Sandal Sørensen, CEO of Danish Industry, also said there was “every reason to remain calm… nobody has an interest in a trade war”.

But behind the scenes, hastily arranged high-level meetings have been taking place in Copenhagen all week, reflecting the shock caused by Trump's remarks.

Greenland Prime Minister Mute Egede flew in to meet both the Prime Minister and King Frederik X on Wednesday.

And on Thursday night, party leaders from across the political spectrum gathered for an emergency meeting on the Mette Frederiksen crisis in Denmark's parliament.

Faced with what many in Denmark called Trump's “provocation,” Frederiksen generally tried to strike a conciliatory tone, repeatedly referring to the U.S. as “Denmark's closest partner.”

It was “quite natural” for the US to be preoccupied with the Arctic and Greenland, she added.

Yet she also said that any decision about Greenland's future should rest with its people alone: ​​”Greenland belongs to the Greenlanders … and the Greenlanders themselves must determine their future.”

Her cautious approach is twofold.

On the one hand, Frederiksen sought to avoid an escalation of the situation. She has been burned before, in 2019, when Trump canceled a trip to Denmark after she said his offer to buy Greenland was “absurd.”

“Then he only had one more year in office, then things went back to normal,” political journalist Eric Holstein told the BBC. “But maybe this is the new normal.”

But Frederiksen's comments also speak to Denmark's determination not to interfere in the internal affairs of Greenland, an autonomous territory with its own parliament and whose population is increasingly leaning towards independence.

“She should have been much clearer in rejecting the idea,” said opposition lawmaker Rasmus Yarlov.

“This level of disrespect from the incoming president of the United States to many, many loyal allies and friends is a record,” he told the BBC, although he admitted that Trump's strength had “surprised everyone”.

The Conservative MP believes that Frederiksen's insistence that “only Greenland… can decide and determine the future of Greenland” is putting too much pressure on the islanders. “It would be wise and smart to stand behind Greenland and just make it clear that Denmark does not want (a US takeover).”

The Greenland issue is a sensitive one for Denmark, whose prime minister only recently formally apologized for spearheading a 1950s social experiment in which Inuit children were removed from their families to be re-educated as “model Danes “.

Last week, Greenland's leader said the territory must free itself from the “shackles of colonialism”.

In doing so, he tapped into the growing nationalist sentiment fueled by interest among Greenland's younger generations in local Inuit culture and history.

Most commentators now expect a successful independence referendum in the near future. While this will be seen as a victory for many, it could also lead to a new set of problems as 60% of Greenland's economy depends on Denmark.

An independent Greenland “will have to make a choice”, Carsten Honge said. The Social Democrat MP now fears his preferred option for a new Commonwealth-style pact “based on equality and democracy” is unlikely to materialise.

Sitting in his parliamentary office, decorated with poems and drawings depicting scenes from Inuit life, Honge said Greenland would have to decide “how much it values ​​independence”. It could cut ties with Denmark and turn to the US, Honge said, “but if you value independence, then that doesn't make sense.”

Opposition MP Yarlov argued that while there is no point in forcing Greenland to be part of Denmark, “it is already very close to being an independent country”.

Its capital, Nuuk, is self-governing but relies on Copenhagen to manage currency, foreign relations and defense – as well as substantial subsidies.

“Today, Greenland has more independence from the EU than Denmark,” Yarlov added. “So I hope they think things over.”

As Mette Frederiksen has the awkward task of responding firmly without offending Greenland or the US, the strongest rebuttal to Trump's comments so far has come from outside Denmark.

The principle of inviolability of borders “applies to every country … no matter if it is very small or very powerful,” German Chancellor Olaf Scholz warned, while French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barot said the EU would not allow other nations “to attack its sovereign borders'.

Their comments revealed deep concern in the EU about how to deal with the impending Trump presidency. “This is not very serious just for Greenland and Denmark – it is serious for the whole world and for Europe as a whole,” said MP Carsten Honge.

“Imagine a world – which we may face in just a few weeks – where international agreements do not exist. It will shake everything up and Denmark will only be a small part of it.”

The Danish trade sector was also gripped by deep jitters after Trump said he would “impose very high tariffs on Denmark” if it refused to hand over Greenland to the US.

Danish Industry Survey 2024 showed that Denmark's GDP would fall by three percentage points if the US imposed 10% tariffs on EU imports into the US as part of a global trade war.

Separating Danish products from the flow of EU goods would be nearly impossible for the US and would almost certainly lead to EU retaliation. But trade industry professionals are taking few risks, and in Denmark, as elsewhere on the continent, vast amounts of resources are being expended to plan for the potential outcomes of Donald Trump's second term in the White House.

As his inauguration approaches, the Danes are preparing as much as they can to weather the storm. There is hope that the president-elect may soon shift his focus on grievances to other EU partners and that the issue of Greenland may be temporarily shelved.

But the anxiety caused by Trump's refusal to rule out military intervention to take Greenland remains.

Karsten Honge said Denmark would suffer whatever decision the US made.

“They should just send a small warship to cruise the coast of Greenland and send a polite letter to Denmark,” he said, only partly in jest.

“The last sentence would be: well, Denmark, what are you going to do about it?

“This is the new reality with Trump.