The ceasefire in Gaza and Lebanon was likely to be tested over the weekend, though, as each side said they wanted to avoid a full-scale battle for at least several weeks.
Lebanon South Lebanon, Israeli troops remained in position Israel claims Hezbollah violated its pledge to withdraw from the area, which passed a deadline on Sunday to withdraw. In Gaza, Hamas released a female hostage that Israel did not want to be released on Saturday postpone the agreed return to the homes of displaced Palestinians in northern Gaza.
But analysts have accused each side of reneging on their deals, and both Israel and its rivals have reasons to remain flexible and temporarily blame others.
Hezbollah, angry at Israel for protecting troops in southern Lebanon, risks a devastating Israeli counterattack if it renews its rocket strikes on Israeli cities. Hamas wants to maintain power in Gaza and lose if war returns. Israel and Israel must maintain the current arrangement in Gaza long enough for at least two dozen more hostages to be released. Israeli leaders also sought to accommodate a campaigning President Trump a word to keep the peace in the Middle East.
Explaining their desire to extend the Gaza blockade, Israel and Hamas were resolving the crisis near midnight on Sunday. The Qatari government said that it is a mediator between the parties female hostage, arbel jehudhe would be released this week, along with two others scheduled to be released. In return, Israel said he was displaced Return to northern Gaza Monday morning.
As for Lebanon, The White House announced It would be extended until February 18, although there was no immediate comment from Israel or Hezbollah. The Lebanese Prime Minister's office confirmed the extension.
Aaron David Miller, a former US negotiator in the Middle East, said, “what will happen in the next few weeks is anybody's guess.”
“These are not agreements between the United States of America and Switzerland. They are agreements that depend on each side giving the other side to maneuver,” he said. “This is their weakness, but also their strength.”
This Wriggle room, as both truces hit the Weekend, even Israeli troops and He killed people in both Lebanon and Gaza Those trying to return to areas controlled by Israel.
Lebanon's health ministry said 22 people were killed by Israeli fire in southern Lebanon, and the Palestinian Authority's news agency said one person in Gaza was killed as large crowds demanded to go home.
But as of Monday morning, the conflict in Gaza appeared to have eased. In Lebanon, Hezbollah issued a statement praising residents who are trying to force Israel's withdrawal and return to foreign powers. However, Hezbollah did not continue firing rockets.
Analysts say the removal of Hezbollah's leadership and its benevolence make it difficult for Iran, even if it is Iranian, to risk further losses. Also, the group's main arms supply route through Syria was cut in December, when Syrian President Bashar al-Assad became an ally of Hezbollah. overthrown by the rebels.
Hezbollah commanders “still have some missiles, some weapons, they can do something,” he said.
“But it's suicidal for them to do this because they know that any attack by Hezbollah in Israel means that Israel will have the opportunity to come back full blast and destroy whatever is left of them,” Ms Ghaddar said.
Hezbollah is also wary of possibly losing support among its Shiite Muslim base, especially in next year's parliamentary elections. Lebanon's Shia community paid the biggest price for Hezbollah's decision to leave War with Israel In October 2023 in solidarity with ally Hamas. Shiite villages and towns in southern Lebanon to brag From Israel's subsequent air campaign and ground occupation.
“If the Shia don't vote for them, that's the end of Hezbollah,” said Ms. Ghaddar, the author of a book about Hezbollah's relationship with its base. “If they don't know 100 percent that the Shia community will support him, they can't really do anything.”
Since it is unlikely that Hezbollah will be able to continue fighting, a cease-fire from Gaza is considered the boldest of the two options.
But his biggest stress test is to be decided by early March, when Hamas and Israel decide whether to withdraw from the initial 42-day truce.
Currently, Israel has signaled that it wants to preserve the ceasefire in order to continue the flow of hostage releases. But an extension would require both sides to agree to a permanent end to the war — a bridge Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is unwilling to cross. Mr. Netanyahu's coalition government, which seeks permanent Israeli control of Gaza, WANTS PREPARATION TO BE DEVELOPED ALONG THE WAR.
The terms of the agreement allow for some flexibility. The truce could continue beyond the 42-day mark as long as both sides negotiate to make the arrangement permanent.
But Israeli officials say they will not be locked in endless fruitless negotiations, especially if Hamas releases the hostages. It is unlikely that Hamas will not promise the hostages, its main bargaining chip, a permanent halt to Israeli military operations.
“Hamas wants a ceasefire, but it doesn't pay any costs,” he said. “They want an armistice that ends the war.”
Much may depend on President Trump's willingness to cajole Mr. Netanyahu toward a more lasting reconciliation. Mr Trump's private messages to the Israeli prime minister were crucial to the early stage silence, but it remains to be seen whether the US president can maintain the position beyond a few weeks.
“If Netanyahu succeeds in persuading the need to renew the war, there will likely be a renewal of the war,” Mr. Abusada said. “If Trump makes his promise that he doesn't want any war and wants more peace – whether it's in Gaza, Ukraine or the whole world – that's a different thing.”