Alice Weidel, chancellor, candidate of the extreme right -wing alternative to the Political Party of Germany (AFD), speaks to the fans when they wave German flags at the AFD election campaign rally.
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The German German party is dominated by polls in the eastern region of the country less than two weeks before the federal election on February 23-Economic fears played a role in its popularity.
After the fall of the Berlin wall in 1989, the economy in Eastern Germany generally collapsed when local companies and companies hesitated and unemployment increased. Despite the fact that the federal government has spent hundreds of billions of euros, increasing the economy of the region and developing its infrastructure, the confusion left the sour taste in the mouth of many from the region.
“Since the transformation of the 1990s, economic uncertainty was a regular sentiment among the part of the German population,” said CNBC Manes Weisskircher, a political scientist in Tu Dresden.
This blocked the alternative German Fuer Deutschland (AFD) and other parties with fringes, which historically work much better in Eastern Germany.
Germany cast two votes in the polls next week: one for whom the candidate will directly represent his constituency and one for the party.
The latest surveys and modeling with Yougov District voting shows something like a right -wing blue wall in the east of Germany. In most Eastern electoral constituencies, AFD candidates are at the forefront. However, this is not the case in the whole country.
CDU, together with the CSU Partner Party, is a leading national Surveys With about 30% of the votes, while AFD is in second place with about 20%, reflecting the growing support for the party throughout the country. AFD won just over 10% of votes in last Federal elections.
It is unlikely to join the next ruling coalition, because the mainstream parts have so far refused to cooperate with AFD.
Economic perception vs. reality
After the German union after the fall of the Berlin Wall, the economy of Eastern Germany was characterized by lower income, higher unemployment and a weaker increase compared to the West.
Since then, these problems have largely disappeared, and factors such as economic growth and unemployment are no longer the main fears, according to Holger Schmieding, the chief economist in Berenberg.
The German Institute of Economic Research IFO provides for 0.7% economic growth Eastern Germany This year more than expected for the country Generally. Data From the German Federal Employment Agency, it shows that the unemployment rate in Eastern Germany has increased by half of the highest levels, and the gaps compared to unemployment in the West shrinks rapidly.
Schmieding said that in some respects German Eastern German countries are ahead of their western counterparts.
“Corrected for maintenance costs, standards of German eastern life are no longer significantly below the standards in the West. The infrastructure is usually newer and better than in most parts of the West, “said CNBC.
Nevertheless, the inhabitants of Eastern Germany still have a negative perception of the economy, in accordance with 2024 Conducted research by the German Economic Institute (IW). Less than a third of respondents with Eastern German said that they were satisfied with the development of the labor market, and only one in five people said that they believe that they live in a region with developing development.
Matthias Diermeier, head of the research unit for democracy, society and market economy in IW, said CNBC that although AFD supporters are only slightly more concerned about their personal economic situation, compared to others, “their perception of the economy is much worse at all.”
Diermeier added that the vast majority of AFD voters claim that they are very concerned about a wider economy, while those who support other parties are at the other end of this spectrum.
AFD uses economic uncertainty
Diermeier noticed that despite what I I refers to a clear process of catching up economic arrears, unevenness between eastern and western Germans.
“This is perceived as unfair, unfair … by supporters of the Sweatshirts Party, but it is also a sentiment that is very strongly activated by these political actors,” he explained, adding that the far right acted to evoke previously existing feelings of feelings of economic uncertainty , being a “second -class citizen” and social fall among voters.
“And that's what they do very effectively,” said Diermeier.
At the same time, AFD questions the accuracy of positive economic messages and, taking into account the belief that the economy is not doing well-the “easy play”, claiming that the mainstream parties, statistical agencies and other organs controlled by the state are misleading voters, he said.
AfD did not answer the CNBC's request for comment.
Weisskircher Tu Dresden also noticed that the historical context is an important factor.
“Economics is important, or rather because of the mood of long-term uncertainty and unclear economic perspectives-in the region, which experienced serious economic problems in the 1990s and 2000, with a high degree of unemployment, among others, among others,” he said.
Anti-immigration, anti-establishment, change of anti-control
Not only economic concerns caused the success of the AfD in Eastern Germany.
Weisskircher said that opposition to immigration is much higher in Eastern Germany, and the mainstream parts have a smaller loyal base in the region, where they were not so present before the national union.
Skepticism regarding climate change and green energy policy are also part of the AfD campaign. In particular, wind turbines have become a questioned topic, and the main AfD candidate Alice Weidel calls them to destroy them for the upcoming elections.
AFD is also positioned as a party representing those who were left.
The growing number of eastern Germans leave more rural regions in favor of the main cities, explained Schmieding Berenberg, and this burdened local companies, services and development. Others in these areas are the main goals of AfD rhetoric and, as Diermeier IW noted, studies have shown that this demographic data are more susceptible to voting to the right.