As Donald J. Trump took the oath of office in Washington, D.C. on Monday, a packed party for Ukrainian business groups in Davos, Switzerland watched the ceremony intently on big screens.
The event, held on the eve of the World Economic Forum's annual conference, appeared to be a show of enthusiasm for America's returning president. Speakers praised Mr Trump and predicted he would be a valuable partner for Ukraine in its war against Russia, despite his criticism of US spending on the military effort. Waiters served mini cheeseburgers on red-and-blue buns (“American food,” participants whispered). A few people cheered at the end.
However, the apparent optimism was a thin veneer over deep uncertainty.
“We expect President Trump to surprise us, but we don't know what the surprise will be,” Andy Hunder, president of the American Chamber of Commerce in Ukraine, said at the party.
Mr. Trump's return to the White House has plunged Europe's business leaders and politicians into a period of uncertainty, and officials are preparing for it behind the scenes. The European Commission — the European Union's executive arm — created a group, sometimes colloquially called the “Trump task force,” that was never officially announced and spent much of 2024 working on possible responses to changes in American trade and foreign policy.
However, it is difficult for companies and government officials to know what is fraud or collusion and what is real. And they learned from the first Trump administration that criticizing the American president too publicly can achieve little and attract attention and even retaliation.
So companies and governments alike are treading carefully to curry favor with, or at least infuriate, the benevolent president of the world's most powerful nation.
The European Commission is an example. Staff members on the task force spent 2024 researching possible detailed responses to the new American presidency. But in public, senior officials have said they are only willing to negotiate in response to potential tariffs and other threats, warning in no uncertain terms that the bloc will retaliate if necessary to protect its interests.
Ursula von der Leyen, chairman of the commission days are offered After the election of Mr. Trump, Europe may buy more liquefied natural gas from America. This is something Mr. Trump needs to do to avoid Europe's tariffs.
“One thing they can do quickly is take our oil and gas,” Mr. Trump told reporters again at the White House after Monday's inauguration ceremony. “We're going to fix it with tariffs, or they have to buy our oil and gas.”
But Ms von der Leyen often speaks in general terms about how Europe might respond to trade restrictions.
“A lot is at stake for both sides,” he said during a speech in Davos on Tuesday, adding that “our first priority” would be to negotiate.
“We will be pragmatic, but we will always stand by our principles,” he said. “We will protect our interests and protect our values.”
The task force had broad mandates but focused on tariffs, according to multiple people familiar with the group's work. They requested anonymity to discuss private negotiations.
Olof Gill, a spokesman for the European Commission, confirmed the group's existence, but noted that it had been active throughout 2024 — well before the actual election — and was not officially named “Trump's task force.”
The group was led by Alejandro Caínzos experienced worker with experience in international relations. He declined to comment for this article.
One of the strategic reasons for keeping things relatively quiet is that Europe is trying to keep its options open.
Jörn Fleck, director general of the Europe Center at the Atlantic Council, said the bloc is more disciplined than it was in the first Trump administration and “is not drawn into periods of political reaction.”
“This is an important learning curve that the EU is going through,” he said.
Mr. Fleck said Europe's planning for possible trade disruptions is also different from its behavior during the first Trump administration. At that time, tariffs on steel and aluminum It surprised America's Atlantic allies.
However, any preparation may have limitations.
Ignacio García Bercero, a former official at the European Commission's Directorate-General for Trade who is now on the Bruegel research team, said the situation in 2017 was “a much more limited threat”. This time, Mr. Trump has threatened to impose tariffs as a whole if he sees fit, rather than one-off tariffs on certain industries.
Mr. Trump's second-term actions could span multiple policy arenas, combining energy, trade and defense goals.
In response, European countries “have to be more creative”, Mr Fleck said.
In some ways, Mr. Trump's arrival accelerates the changes that are already coming. Ian Lesser, who heads the Brussels office of the German Marshall Fund, noted that while Mr. Trump's rhetoric could accelerate more European military spending, the shift was widely seen as necessary.
“The big questions it raises only reinforce existing concerns,” Mr Lesser said.
However, Mr Trump could force European politics to evolve more quickly.
On February 3, the European Council consisting of the leaders of 27 EU countries will meet. A chateau outside Brussels to talk about the way forward on security issues, including issues such as funding and general procurement. It should be noted that the Prime Minister of Great Britain, Keir Starmer, will participate in that event the first time The UK Prime Minister met with the full group since the country He voted to leave the European Union in 2016.
It emphasizes a possibility that arises from all expected uncertainty.
While many in Europe worry that Mr Trump will make one-on-one deals with European countries – tearing the union apart – it is also plausible that the pressure could bring Europe and its partners closer together.
“I think the public will see that there is strength in negotiating as a bloc,” Beata Javorcik, chief economist at the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, said in an interview at a Davos cafe.
Ahead of Monday's inauguration in Washington, French Prime Minister Francois Bayrou criticized the United States for its “dominant politics.” However, European countries should work together in front of this.
“This is a decision that depends on us, the French and the Europeans,” Mr Bayrou told reporters in Pau, south-west France, where he is still mayor. “Because it is impossible to do without Europe.”
Aurelien Breeden, Jenny Gross and Catherine Porter contributed to the report.