By David Ljunggren
OTTAWA (Reuters) – Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is increasingly announcing his intention to resign, although he has not made a final decision, a source familiar with Trudeau's thinking said.
Trudeau has been under increasing pressure to quit since Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland resigned over a policy conflict.
Trudeau's departure will leave the party without a permanent leader at the time of the vote, indicating that the Liberals will lose badly to the official opposition Conservatives in the election that should be held in late October.
Here are some ways to get ahead in Canada:
WHAT HAPPENS WHEN TRUDEAU LEAVES THE STATEMENT?
If Trudeau resigns, the Liberals will name an interim leader to take over as prime minister while the party sets up a special leadership conference. The challenge for the party is that these conventions usually take months to prepare and if the election takes place before then, the Liberals will be in the hands of a prime minister who is not elected by the members. This did not happen in Canada. The Liberals may try to run a shorter convention than usual, but this could cause protests from candidates who feel this puts them at risk.
There is no way that Freeland can be named as prime minister on a permanent basis, because traditionally the interim leader is not nominated as a candidate to lead the party.
CAN TRUDEAU BE BOOSTED BY HIS LIBERAL PARTY?
Unlike in Britain, where party leaders are chosen by a parliamentary caucus and can be quickly removed, the Liberal leader is chosen by a special assembly of members. So there is no formal way for the party to remove Trudeau if he wants to stay.
That said, if members of his cabinet and a large number of lawmakers want him gone, he may decide that his position isn't a good fit.
CAN TRUDEAU BE REJECTED BY PARLIAMENT?
Canadian governments must demonstrate that they have confidence in the elected chamber of the House of Commons. Votes on the budget and other spending are considered measures of confidence and if the government loses one, it collapses. In almost all cases, the election campaign begins immediately.
The House of Commons closed for winter break in December and does not return until January 27. The government can use procedural controls to prevent compliance but must give a few days each session to opposition parties if they can. disclose proposals on any matter, including antitrust.
Assuming the government allocates opposition days at the end of the session, the most likely time for Trudeau to be demoted would be in the last 10 days of March. This will trigger an election sometime in May.
IS THERE ANOTHER WAY TRUDEAU CAN BE PRESSED?
Constitutional power in Canada rests with Governor General Mary Simon, who is the representative of King Charles, the head of state. He could theoretically remove Trudeau, but in real life this would not happen. “The governor general is not going to fire a prime minister who has confidence in the Commons,” said Philippe Lagasse, a professor and constitutional expert at Ottawa's Carleton University.
WHAT ELSE CAN TRUDEAU DO TO AVOID EXCLUSION?
Trudeau could run parliament, which would officially end the current session and give him some breathing room. Under this scenario, the return of the House will be delayed for several weeks, to allow the government to present a new plan of how it plans to govern the country. This would have the potential to delay any no-confidence motion, but could further anger Liberal lawmakers, especially if Trudeau was still prime minister.