Faced with upheaval, the defiant Trudeau is holding out for now

It was one of the worst weeks of his political career, and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was in the early days of the season.

At the Liberal Party's annual holiday gathering, Trudeau showed his party face despite being blindsided the day before by the sudden resignation of one of his most trusted allies, Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland, just hours before she was to deliver an economic statement to parliament.

But even as some members of his own party called for him to quit, the Prime Minister struck a resolute, defiant tone as he addressed the party faithful in his navy suit and tie.

He hinted at his “difficult” week, comparing it to a family fight.

He discussed being “bold” and “ambitious” in the face of adversity and made scathing comments at his political rival, Pierre Poillievre, leader of the opposition Conservative Party of Canada.

Pundits noted afterward that it sounded a lot like a campaign speech and that despite recent political turmoil, Trudeau appeared to be digging in.

That position did not change Friday, even after the leader of the country's progressive New Democratic Party (NDP) Jagmeet Singh said he would table a motion to oust the Trudeau government in the new year. It is the support of the NDP that keeps the Liberals in power. Now it looks like an election is coming up.

Still, Trudeau has so far given no indication that he will resign anytime soon, although he has reportedly told party members that he will take time over the winter break to think about what to do.

Political observers say Trudeau has often shown a streak of defiance when under pressure, something that has helped him overcome a number of controversies during his nine years in power.

And he has often been underestimated, such as when he won a majority government in 2015. at the age of 44, although he was portrayed by his political opponents as something of a dilettante.

But as pressure mounts on him to resign, some of those same experts say he may need a new strategy.

When Trudeau first ran for prime minister, three words followed him: I'm just not ready.

The phrase was the motto of an attack ad that ran repeatedly across the country as he sought to oust incumbent Prime Minister Stephen Harper, a Conservative who had been in power since 2004.

He passes on the usual criticisms he faced at the time about his young age, his relative lack of experience and his tortuous path to politics.

Trudeau “kind of meandered” in his early life before he became a drama teacher in Vancouver, said Canadian historian Raymond Blake, seemingly isolated as the well-known and wealthy son of former prime minister Pierre Elliott Trudeau.

But shortly after entering politics, Trudeau took a combative stance.

It's a trait some say he learned from his father, who is known for his charismatic but combative leadership style and who is known for his catchphrase “just look at me,” which he quickly told a reporter in the midst of the political crisis.

“His father had the image of a really tough, very tough politician,” said Lawrence Martin, a longtime Canadian political columnist based in Washington.

The younger Trudeau continued to single-handedly defy the odds, scoring a historic victory for his Liberal Party, taking them from third place in parliament to a majority mandate in his first federal election.

“It kind of makes him feel like he can overcome big obstacles,” Mr. Martin said, adding that politically Trudeau operates with “a hyper dose of confidence.”

Trudeau's road to power has been bumpy since he took office after being embroiled in a number of political scandals.

During her first term, Justice Minister Jodi Wilson-Raybould – the first Indigenous woman to hold the post – quit over what she described as attempts to interfere and “veiled threats” by senior government officials seeking legal favors for a firm. facing a corruption trial.

While running for a second term in 2019, Trudeau's re-election campaign was rocked by published images showing him as a younger man with a swarthy face at least three times.

And a year later, in 2020, Trudeau faced another ethics scandal involving a potentially major government contract for a youth charity that had worked with Trudeau family members.

But despite each setback, Trudeau held on to power. He won re-election twice, making him the longest-serving leader of his G7 peers.

“Trudeau survived so much,” said Prof. Blake, noting that his political successes and leadership have won the loyalty of many in his party despite the scandals.

While Trudeau has weathered many storms, there are signs that his time may be up.

For one thing, history is not on his side. Only one Canadian prime minister, Sir John Macdonald – the country's first – has served four consecutive terms.

Trudeau is also working against falling popularity. An Ipsos poll from September showed that about two-thirds of Canadians disapprove. Just 26 percent of those polled said Trudeau was their top choice for prime minister, putting him 19 points behind Conservative leader Poilievre.

And then there's slowly eroding support within Trudeau's own party. So far, at least 18 Liberal MPs have called on their leader to step down.

“He's delusional if he thinks we can go on like this,” New Brunswick MP Wayne Long told reporters this week.

“It is unfair to us, the MPs, it is unfair to the ministers and most importantly it is unfair to the country. We have to continue in a new direction and we have to restart.”

According to Long, who is leading the push to remove Trudeau, as many as 50 of the 153 Liberal MPs want him out immediately. About the same number are Trudeau loyalists, he said, and the rest are on the fence.

“There are still some party loyalists who like him and, you know, still want to support him,” Mr. Martin said, the DC-based columnist. “But if there was a secret ballot of the Liberal caucus on whether he should stay or not, he would be defeated handily.”

The prime minister also appears to be driven to stay by his disdain for his political opponent Poilievre, Mr. Martin noted.

“He doesn't want to back down and he wants to face Pierre Poilievre, who he hates,” he said.

Trudeau's dogged persistence in the face of a bleak political forecast has drawn comparisons with outgoing US President Joe Biden, who abandoned his bid months before the November election only after mounting domestic pressure.

Prof. Blake said Trudeau's legacy, like Biden's, will depend on how it pans out. Fighting a losing battle, he said, could leave Trudeau with a “lasting scar.” But the prime minister has a remarkable ability to survive, he noted.

“He survived and he didn't do what is normal. Will normal—whatever that is—fall into place this time? Maybe, but I'm not convinced.”

Trudeau's dilemma is also similar to that faced by his father, who won three consecutive elections and won a fourth after leaving power less than a year ago.

But by 1984, more than 15 years after he first became prime minister, the elder Trudeau — as his son now is — was facing terrifying inquiries. It seemed clear that he would not win the next election if he stayed. He decided to retire, telling the public that he made the decision after a walk in a snowstorm in Ottawa.

Since then, the term “walk in the snow” has become synonymous with political resignation in Canada. This Christmas, it remains to be seen if Trudeau will make his own walk.