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Check out this post. This was Kemi Badenoch's goal new year message in the country. Although often wrong, these mistakes should give a sense of how the parties hope to shape the debate in the coming months. The Tory leader had nothing but “please stay on the line, your call is important to us”.
Politicians abhor a vacuum and while no one expects Badenoch to do his entire platform two months into the job, he doesn't have as much time as he thinks. Many people look at this place and not with tolerance. The Tories have been shocked by the power and focus of Nigel Farage's Reform UK and are already debating how long he has.
One prominent and well-connected observer recently confided that Boris Johnson was a bet to be the next prime minister. He is not alone in this argument and a look at the Tory leader's recent history leaves little doubt that the man himself has not ruled it out.
Perhaps such talk is driven by the impending (and then unlikely) return of Donald Trump or the crisis situation that brings a maverick spirit to western politics. Johnson fits that mold, although there are good reasons not to. His closest supporters have all left Westminster. He has no base in the country and whatever UK equivalent of the Maga crowd, looks to Farage. Above all, he reminds voters why the Tory brand can't be trusted.
What a conversation that illuminates though is the depth of Conservative funk. The theory of Boris is finally betting on the continuation of decline and despair. For once, the battered Tory party could rebuild slowly and wait for the pendulum to swing their way. But the rise of the Reformation denied Badenoch that time and place. Farage may train his fire on Labor but his first task is to position himself as a real opponent.
Badenoch's first weeks were uninspiring, unfocused and, at times, he had them he even played into the hands of the Reformation. While he's finding his feet, Farage has been dominating the headlines. Both GB News and the Telegraph, two of the world's most important news outlets, now appear to be little more than an extension of his marketing work. Membership is up and enjoying Elon Musk's blessing. Farage has a smart social media and eye for the news media. Even when he fails directly he influences and changes the debate, most notably about immigration.
Above all, there is a desire in his message that the two major parties are failing – and not being seen. At the last election Labor and the Tories together secured just 57 per cent of the vote. The space for success disruption seems to be expanding.
Already, known conservatives say the deal which must be done to him to regain strength. However, it is possible to see beyond some of the hype. Although it is likely to enjoy the benefits of local elections in the next 18 months, Reform still has a long way to go. A recently opinion poll electrified its allies by predicting that it could win 71 seats in the next election. Yet the same vote also shows that the Tories have almost doubled their current numbers. And as seriously as one might take that early vote, its key message was Labour's disappointment.
Another interpretation could be that Reform appears as a nationalistic facsimile of the Liberal Democrats (the same Farage admits) but on the right of politics, a piratical party with geographical and demographic support and power in areas where the Conservatives are fighting to challenge Labour. . Reform has appeal on both the left and the right, including poor and older voters. Disagreements are common but challenging groups are generally not penalized for this.
For all its talk of success, the real aim of Reform remains to do well enough to seize power and force change in the UK's electoral system, which could then permanently shape the political map.
None of this is to underestimate the power of the party, not least to force other parties to its agenda. Its momentum is a ghost of politics to come. Its growth depends on unpopular government and unpopular opposition; The election shows a continuation of electoral fragmentation that allows parties to win seats on low vote shares. But while Labor has little time to regain support, Badenoch does not. It's foolish to write him off now, but even those who are sympathetic suggest he has a year to 18 months to prove he can rebuild the team.
It's possible that by the next election some kind of agreement (or a neutral agreement) is necessary. But Badenoch need not panic now. Besides, any deal that leads to electoral reform is not in his party's interest. What he needs to do is change the narrative of Reform by bringing the Conservatives back into the national conversation as the leading voice of opposition on issues other than immigration. Thankfully, Labor has a gift for opportunities in the inclusive economy and its instinct for low tax cuts. The Tories, and Badenoch in particular, should prosecute Rachel Reeves' tax hike case. An active search here will buy him time to accomplish his agenda.
Badenoch was elected because the Tories felt the interest and certainty of winning the hearing. But the rewards of privilege are mounting around him and he doesn't have the luxury of leisure to see that while a grateful nation waits and watches.