Standing in front of several dozens of striptease parking supporters in Okala, Florida, Monday night, Josh Weil's democratic candidate made a forecast.
The Mathematics Mathematics Teacher said that in less than 24 hours he would make history by transferring a solid Republican seat of Congress – helping to combat control of the House of Republicans.
“Their agenda in 2025 stops here,” he promised, confronting the efforts of President Donald Trump and Elon Musk to reduce state services and staff.
Just an hour earlier, at a telephone hearing of the City Hall, Randy Fine, his republican opponent in the special elections on Tuesday, had a similar message – although he put him as a warning, not a promise.
“The Democrats are crazy,” he said. “They will do everything you need to stop Donald Trump's agenda.”
Voters in the eastern half of Central Florida, from Okala to the cities north of the Daton Beach, head to the ballot boxes to fill the place vacated by Michael Waltz, selected by Trump as a national security adviser. Waltz recently sparked a media rage after inadvertently added a prominent journalist to a high -level group chat for US strikes in Yemen.
The fact that Waltz's work may be in danger is just one of the reasons the Tuesday competition for one of 435 House Seats is already a national history.
The other is that Wail, although running in the Trump district, worn with more than 30 points last November, can simply win. And if he did, the Democrats would have made a big step closer to the majority in a closely divided house.
Earn or losses, the race can also serve as a barometer of voter motivation, as Trump begins his second term-he will offer hints for the political landscape before the medium-term congress elections next year.
This is one of the two special elections in Florida on Tuesday. The other, in the Panhandell region in Florida, will determine a substitute for Mat Garets, the Firebrand Congressment Congressman, initially chose to be a prosecutor before withdrawing under a cloud of sexual disorders and accusations in ethics. The Republican is expected to win there.
But this is not the case here. Weil raised about $ 10 million for campaign donations, downplaying $ 1 million brought by Fine, Senator of Florida.
According to a recent public opinion study, Weil closely tracks well. An internal poll is reported by a respected Republican company showed Weil forward with 3.
This is enough to cause more than a little anxiety in republican ranks.
“There is no excuse for a Republican not to win this race,” says Randy Ross, a conservative activist based in Florida, who was a campaign there for Trump in 2016 and 2024. “The only excuse that may have is that Republicans were not excited and did not go out.”
D -Ross added that Republican voters need to understand that the fine will support Trump's agenda in Congress – and there is no Weil.
To this end, some of the most serious attackers of the party intervened to help. Last Thursday, Trump joined the Republican candidate in two telephone events of the mayoralty. On Monday night, Florida Bayron Donalds Congressman and conservative commentator Ben Shapiro held their own event.
“The Donald Trump's program is hanging from a thread,” Shapiro said. “This is an area that just can't fall into democratic hands.”
Technology Musk Musk, a close ally of Trump, can campaign personally for a hotly contested Wisconsin Supreme Court race, but its political committee has directed more than $ 75,000 to support a fine in recent days. Other conservative groups followed the costume, helping the financial field of play.
Of particular importance to the party is that the special elections are held during a more political commitment and usually include only the race in question. They often tilt to the party with the most enthusiasm, according to G -n Ross. For Republicans, democratic display of force on Tuesday would be disturbing.
“You can't just go to recognition of a special election name,” he said. “You have to drive people to vote for you.”
Republican nervousness is the result of simple mathematics in the House of Representatives. By a majority of 218 to 213 in the House of 435 seats, the party cannot afford to lose the winning election – let alone those that must be immersed.
While Weil's victory in itself would not be enough to turn control of the House, two of the current seats are in safe democratic areas. If the results of these special elections go according to expectations, the Democrats will be on the verge of control.
This may explain why the president announced on Friday that he was Withdrawing his election of New York Congress Eliza Stephanik To be an American ambassador to the United Nations organization, although she did not free her office in her office. Weil's victory on Tuesday would mean that Republicans cannot afford to lose elections in New York to replace Stephanik.
Even before the vote on Tuesday, both the Democrats and the Republicans rejoice to put the results in the best light for their party.
Conservatives downplayed the national consequences of the race and made the blame to Fine, which was accused of conducting an uncomfortable campaign and accepting victory for granted.
“This is a reflection of the candidate who conducts the race,” said Florida Republican governor Ron Ron Ron Ron for the apparent insufficient FINE performance.
Meanwhile, Democrats announce victory – at least moral diversity.
“These are races that in ordinary circumstances should not be a political radar for anyone,” said Hakem Jeffris Democratic House minority leader last Monday. “The American people do not buy what the Republicans sells.”
This mood was voiced by many of Weil's supporters on Monday night in Okala, even if the candidate himself told the BBC that he would win with eight points.
“If we lose, but we get closer, the moderate Republicans can notice,” said Buddy Oswald, a lawyer and a teacher. If they were worried that their party could lose a safe place, he added, they might feel the heat and they would be more likely to be torn apart with the president.
Eight years ago, after the stunning victory of Trump President in 2016, Democrats sought solace in special election competitions all over the map. They withdrew some stunning, including Doug Jones' victory in a deeply conservative alabama. In other races, such as John Osof's offer in a suburban area in Atlanta, the Democrat only came out short.
These competitions envisaged a high level of democratic enthusiasm, which led to a wave in the average conditions of next year, when the party won 39 seats by returning the House of Representatives and setting a decisive end to Trump's legislative agenda.
Republicans, with convincing victories on Tuesday, want to get out every chance of the story to repeat.
Democrats engaged in sometimes a fierce debate about strategy and political priorities would like Florida to return them to the victory column – or at least give them hope for better days ahead.