Gaza Ceasefire: What Can We Expect?


Reuters Displaced Palestinians walk on a road in Gaza (file photo)Reuters

Almost the entire population of Gaza has been displaced by the war

Israel and Hamas are believed to be close to an agreement that could end the war in Gaza and lead to the release of Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners.

It would be the most dramatic breakthrough in 15 months of war that began when the Palestinian militant group Hamas attacked Israel in October 2023.

What could be in the Israel-Hamas ceasefire agreement?

We hope that the ceasefire agreement will mean an agreement to stop the war raging in Gaza.

An exchange of hostages and prisoners is also expected.

Hamas took 251 hostages when it attacked Israel in October 2023. It still holds 94 captives, although Israel believes only 60 are still alive.

Israel is expected to release about 1,000 Palestinian prisoners, some of whom have been imprisoned for years, in exchange for the hostages.

How would the truce work?

This ceasefire is expected to happen in three stages after an agreement is announced.

Details are still being worked out. Until the agreement is finalized, it is subject to change.

First stage

A Palestinian official told the BBC that in the first stage, 34 hostages – expected to be civilians – would be exchanged for Palestinian prisoners.

Three hostages will be released immediately, and the rest of the exchange will take place over six weeks.

During this stage, Israeli troops will also begin to withdraw from populated areas in Gaza.

The Palestinian official said detailed negotiations for the second and third stages would begin on the 16th day of the ceasefire.

Second stage

In the second stage, the remaining hostages – soldiers and reservists – will be released in exchange for a certain number of Palestinian prisoners.

Of the 1,000 Palestinian prisoners Israel is believed to have agreed to release, about 190 are serving sentences of 15 years or more. An Israeli official told the BBC that those convicted of murder would not be released in the occupied West Bank.

During this stage, Israel will also allow displaced people who are now in southern Gaza to return to the north.

Almost all of Gaza's 2.3 million people have had to flee their homes because of the fighting.

Third stage

The third and final stage will involve rebuilding Gaza, something that could take years.

The Israeli official said Israeli forces would remain in a buffer or security zone in Gaza during any ceasefire.

Reuters An Israeli woman holds a poster of Israeli hostages as she looks over the fence to Gaza (file photo)Reuters

Hamas still holds dozens of hostages captured in the October 2023 attack on Israel

What are the unanswered questions about the deal?

It took months of painstaking indirect negotiations to get to this point, not least because Israel and Hamas completely distrust each other.

Hamas wanted a complete end to the war before releasing the hostages, something that was unacceptable to Israel.

The ceasefire will effectively stop the war while its terms are met.

However, it is not clear whether this will mean that the war is over for good.

One of Israel's primary military objectives is to destroy the military and governance capacity of Hamas. Although Israel has inflicted severe damage on it, Hamas still has some capacity to act and regroup.

It is also unclear which hostages are alive or dead, or whether Hamas knows the whereabouts of all those who remain unaccounted for.

For its part, Hamas has demanded the release of some prisoners that Israel says it will not release. This is believed to include those involved in the October 7 attacks.

It is also not known whether Israel will agree to withdraw from the buffer zone by a certain date or whether its presence there will be indefinite.

Any ceasefire is likely to be fragile.

Truces between Israel and Hamas, which had halted previous wars, were rocked by clashes and eventually broken.

The schedule and complexity of this ceasefire means that even a small incident can become a major threat.

What Happened on October 7, 2023 and what happened in gaza?

Hundreds of gunmen led by Hamas launched an unprecedented attack on southern Israel, breaching the border fence and targeting communities, police stations and army bases.

About 1,200 people were killed and more than 250 hostages were taken back to Gaza. Hamas also fired thousands of rockets at Israel.

Israel responded with a massive military campaign, first by air and then a ground invasion. Since then, Israel has attacked targets in Gaza by land, sea and air, while Hamas has attacked Israel with rockets.

Israel's offensive has devastated Gaza and led to severe food shortages, making it difficult for aid to reach those most in need. More than 46,600 people – most of them civilians – have been killed by Israel's attacks, according to the Hamas-run Gaza Health Ministry.



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