Freight ships and containers in the port of Qingdao in Eastern China in Shandong Province on December 4, 2024.
Stringer AFP Getty images
The World Trade Organization (WTO) warned on Wednesday that the prospects of global trade “deteriorated violently” after the regime of the tariffs of the US President Donald Trump.
“The prospects of global trade have deteriorated rapidly due to the growth of tariffs and uncertainty of commercial policy,” said WTO in his latest report “Global Perpche and Statistics” on Wednesday.
Based on the currently existing tariffs, including a 90-day suspension of “mutual tariffs”, it is expected that world trade in goods will fall by 0.2% in 2025, before publishing the “modest” recovery of 2.5% in 2026.
It is expected that the decline will be particularly steep in North America, where it is expected that exports will fall by 12.6%this year.
The WTO also warned that there is a “serious inheritance risk”, including the use of “mutual” tariffs and a broader development of politics uncertainty “, which can lead to even a sharper decline by 1.5% in global trade in goods, and especially export -oriented wounds, the least developed countries.
Recent tariff disturbances occurred in a strong year for global trade in 2024, during which trade in goods increased by 2.9%, and trade in commercial services increased by 6.8%, said WTO.
The new estimation of the fall in world trade by 0.2% for 2025 is almost three percentage points lower than in the basic script of the “low tariff”, added WTO, and means a significant reversal from the beginning of the year, when economists of the sales authority expected that the continuous expansion of trade supported by improving macroeconomic conditions.
“The risk for the forecast includes the implementation of currently suspended mutual tariffs by the United States, as well as a wider overflow of commercial policy uncertainty outside trade relations related to the US,” said WTO.
“In the case of adopting the mutual tariff, it would reduce the global increase in goods trading by an additional 0.6 percentage point, constituting a special risk for the least developed countries (LDC), while the spread of uncertainty of commercial policy (TPU) would release another 0.8 percentage point.
US President Donald Trump provides comments on the Rose Garden tariffs in the White House in Washington, April 2, 2025.
Carlos Barria Reuters
Trump is stunned by trading partners and global markets at the beginning of April, when he announced a number of “mutual” tariffs for imports from over 180 countries. Beijing has been the most difficult of all, and the American duty for Chinese import is effectively 145%. China, in turn, hit in Washington with retaliatory tariffs up to 125% compared to US imports.
Universal market turbulence after the tariff was announced, Trump's temporary thinning, and the president announced it last week New obligations regarding imports from most trading partners would be reduced to 10% to 90 days To let commercial negotiations with the counterparts of Washington.
The WTO said in Wednesday's report that the impact of recent changes in commercial policy will probably change significantly depending on the region.
In the corrected forecast, North America currently subtracts 1.7 percentage points from the global increase in trade in goods in 2025, a general negative hare.
Meanwhile, Asia and Europe still contribute positively, but less than in the starting scenario, with the entry of Asia to decrease with a value of 0.6 percentage points.
It is expected that the disturbances in American trade “start a significant redirect of trade,” WTO added, increasing the concerns among the third markets with increased competition from China.
“It is anticipated that Chinese export of goods will increase by 4% to 9% in all regions except North America as the trade is redirected. At the same time, the US imports from China should drop violently in sectors such as textiles, clothing and electrical equipment, creating new export opportunities for other suppliers to fill the gap,” notes the trade organization, noting that it can be opened to increase their countries. Export for other suppliers.