Good news doesn't always have to be bad for markets


Job and Resource Fair hosted by the Mountain Area Workforce Development Council in partnership with NCWorks in Hendersonville, North Carolina, USA, on Tuesday, November 19, 2024.

Allison Joyce | Bloomberg | Getty Images

This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors the latest news wherever they are. Like what you see? You can subscribe Here.

What you need to know today

Job explosion in December
Data on employment in non-agricultural sectors in the USA
increased to 256,000 in December, up from 212,000 in November and above the 155,000 forecast from the Dow Jones consensus, US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Friday. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1% from 4.2% in November. Economists expected that the rate would remain unchanged in December.

US markets in the red in 2025
US markets fell on Friday following the release of an expectation-defying employment report for December. The main US indices are currently in negative territory in 2025. Pan-European Stoxx 600 the index lost 0.84%, with all major exchanges closing in the negative area. Euro zone government bond yields rose to new multi-month highs.

Why Meta Had to 'Bend the Knee to Trump'
Meta Tuesday's announcement that it would eliminate third-party fact-checking was seen as an attempt to appease US President-elect Donald Trump. Here's why Meta had to “bend the knee to Trump”: in the words of a former vice president of Facebook. Separately, CEO Mark Zuckerberg was interviewed on Friday “The Joe Rogan Experience” in which he slammed Apple for poor innovation efforts.

Apple is losing market share in China
Apple shares fell 2.4% after analyst Ming-Chi Kuo he wrote on Friday that the company in December iPhone shipments in China have fallen by approximately 10-12% year over year compared to overall flat smartphone shipments. Moreover, according to Kuo, there is “no evidence” that Apple Intelligence increases revenues from hardware or service upgrades.

TikTok could be banned in the US this week
On Friday, the Supreme Court of the United States heard oral arguments in the case regarding the so-called the future of TikTok in the United States. The the judges seemed generally unconvinced according to TikTok's main argument by banning TikTok violates the free speech rights of millions of US users, which means the app could disappear from app stores as soon as this week.

(PRO) Inflation report and bank results for the week
On Wednesday, the US consumer price index for December will be published. This will indicate whether inflation pressure continues to increase on the economy and markets, especially after surprisingly high non-farm payrolls data for December. Large banks, e.g JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs AND Morgan Stanley earnings report for the second half of the week.

The most important thing

Jobs rose 100,000 more in December than the Dow Jones consensus estimate.

Investors feared that the Fed might remain hawkish in response to the hot labor market situation. Market-implied probability of only one cut this year increased to 68.5% after the employment report, according to CME Group's FedWatch Indicator.

Bond yields, already elevated in recent weeks, surged following the release of the jobs report. The Yield of 10-year treasury bonds hit highest level since November 2023.

The market sell-off following the jobs report was quick and unexpected. The S&P500 decreased by 1.54%, i.e Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 1.63%, a Nasdaq Composite lost 1.63%. All major indices for 2025 are currently in negative territory.

Good news is bad news for investors, as the clichéd saying goes.

However, we should remember that circumstances are different now than during the peak of inflation.

This time around, the U.S. Federal Reserve may not be as worried about a solid labor market. On the contrary, strong job growth probably reassures her, given that concerns about the employment rate were one of the reasons the Fed decided to make a huge In September, interest rates were cut by 50 basis points.

'You'll never hear me complain that we have 250,000 jobs,' said Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee he said on CNBC's “Squawk on the Street.” Goolsbee also noted that inflation over the past six months has been running at about 1.9%, just below the Fed's target.

At a time when inflation is lower, high employment rates are a sign of a resilient economy.

And economic growth ultimately “means the potential for better earnings, lower risk of recession, and that's really going to dictate long-term returns versus the sell-off in today's market,” said Adam Turnquist, chief technical strategist at LPL Financial.

In other words, good news may just be good news if investors look beyond the immediate present.

— CNBC's Jeff Cox, Michael Santoli, Pia Singh and Sean Conlon contributed to this report.



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