Beirut, Lebanon – The new president. The new Prime Minister. And the perception that Hezbollah, arguably the most powerful group in the country, has been weakened.
It's been a changing few weeks in Lebanon, especially when it comes to politics that often seem frozen.
The move has been a cause for celebration among many Lebanese, but could also raise questions for the entire political establishment, including Hezbollah.
Hezbollah, a Shia political and military group, has ruled Lebanon for the past two decades. But in the last few months, it has faced many problems, including the loss of its leaders, including its leader, Hassan Nasrallah, during his war with Israel and later the fall of his staunch ally, the government of Bashar al-Assad in Syria. .
“Hezbollah still has legitimacy,” Ziad Majed, a Lebanese political analyst, told Al Jazeera. “It must accept being strong – and it will be strong – the Lebanese party like all the others but without the ownership of the decision of war and peace.”
Hezbollah's 'cut off hand'
Hezbollah helped Joseph Aoun to get the necessary votes to become the president by supporting him in the second round of the elections on January 9. But the group, which planned to support Najib Mikati in voting for the prime minister on January 13, did not deny it when it was announced. Nawaf Salamformer president of the International Court of Justice, will win.
Hezbollah's MP, Mohammad Raad, said the group had extended a hand to the country by voting for Aoun but the election of Salam saw “the hand cut off”.
The Iranian-backed group believes that many of those who oppose the government are taking advantage of the loss of Israel's war on Lebanon.
In his first speech as an elected minister, Mr. Salam promised to unite the Lebanese people and addressed the problems affecting the Shia community in the future. Israel's war on earth. Israel's offensive in Lebanon has focused on areas with large Shia populations, even in areas where Hezbollah's weapons or fighters have been widely reported to be free, including southern Lebanon, much of the Bekaa Valley and Beirut. known as Daiyeh.
Similar to what Aoun said a few days before, Mr. Salam said that he will try to ensure that the Israeli army withdraws “from the land of Lebanon” and that the areas affected by the Israeli attack will be rebuilt.
“Rebuilding is not just a promise but a commitment,” he said.
“He is smart enough to find the right ways to try to be inclusive,” Karim Emile Bitar, a professor of international relations at Saint Joseph University in Beirut, told Al Jazeera. “I don't think he will try to leave the Shia region to participate in the government and the government, but this is a decision that the Shia parties have to make.”
Hezbollah, however, is vulnerable. For years, Hezbollah and its allies had the political and military power to block elections they opposed, such as governments that did not meet their needs. In one of the most well-known examples of the group's power, Hezbollah sent fighters into the streets of Beirut in May 2008 after the Lebanese government ordered it to end public communications, forcing authorities to back down.
But a the fall of al-Assad's regime in Syria it has made receiving weapons more difficult and removed an important ally from the region.
Control over equipment
Under the terms of the cease-fire with Israel, Hezbollah is supposed to move north of the Litani river, which runs through southern Lebanon from northern Tire in the west to south of Marjayoun in the east, and the Lebanese army is supposed to be sent to the south. Lebanon after Israel withdraws from the region.
Hezbollah has said its weapons should be withdrawn only from the south, but Israel recently launched an attack on northern Litani where it said it was allied with Hezbollah. However, some officials in Israel and the United States – as well as in Lebanon – said that Hezbollah's weapons should be monitored everywhere in Lebanon. This leaves open the question of whether all sides have the same knowledge on the issue of ending the war.
Both Aoun and Salam have spoken of the government's arms control and deployment in southern Lebanon, a clear message to Hezbollah that its military supremacy will end.
Whether Hezbollah will accept that is another matter. On Saturday, Hezbollah Secretary General Naim Qassem warned that Hezbollah must be included in any incoming government.
“(No one can stop us) from participating in politics in Lebanon because we are an important part of the establishment of the country and its restoration,” Qassem said before adding that no one could “take advantage of the international situation. (Israeli) fight, because the political path is different from how they reject (Hezbollah)”.
Lebanon's new leaders have promised to ensure that Israel withdraws from southern Lebanon and rebuilds destroyed homes and villages, which experts believe is an effort to help the Shia movement.
Hezbollah is under pressure from its territories in the south, the Bekaa Valley and Dahiyeh to rebuild their homes and lives. For these reasons, experts said, Lebanon will need international support. This could lead Hezbollah to accept a new political strategy in Lebanon for the time being.
“Either (Hezbollah) allows the reconstruction to take place under the leadership of the government and with sufficient approval from donors in the (Arab) Gulf who are ready to invest their money, or it will not happen,” said Nadim Houry, the chief executive. of the Arab Reform Initiative, he said.
And there are indications that, despite the rhetoric of some, Hezbollah may be open to a reconciliation process, at least in the short term.
“What is important is to rebuild the government institutions, achieve political, economic and financial goals, establish a ceasefire agreement and follow the implementation of the Taif agreement,” Qassem Kassir, a political analyst close to Hezbollah, told Al Jazeera, referring to the 1989 Agreement that was designed to end the civil war. 15-year-old Lebanese. “The issue of fighting Israel's enemy is one of the most important issues.”
New hope in Salam
Aoun's alliance with Salam reflects a shift in Lebanon's political traditions and the prime ministerial record of some of Salam's predecessors, including Saad Hariri and Prime Minister Mikati.
Many Lebanese people say that Salam's appointment as prime minister is a help to the country and its hopes for change.
“I am optimistic,” said Dalal Mawad, a Lebanese journalist and writer who counts Salam as a mentor. “They embody the justice and accountability and rule of law that we want to see in Lebanon.”
“What we can say is that the appointment of Nawaf Salam bodes well for the future of Lebanon,” Bitar said. “Many Lebanese are optimistic for the first time in decades or for the first time since 2019.”
Mr. Salam's name began to be circulated as a health minister shortly after the mass protests that took place on October 17, 2019. He is known as a man who, although he comes from a prominent political family – his relatives include former Prime Minister Saeb Salam and Tammam. Salam – he is outside the culture of oligarchy.
In his first speech as an elected minister, Salam spoke of building a “modern, civil and just country”.
He also spoke about achieving “justice, security, progress and opportunity”.
He spoke in particular about justice for the victims of August 4, 2020, the Beirut port explosion and the 2019 banking crisis where depositors were robbed of their money and no authorities or banks were held accountable.
Lebanese media reported on Tuesday that the investigation into the blast, which was blamed on Lebanese political groups including Hezbollah, would resume soon.
Fight forward
While many have focused on Hezbollah, all of Lebanon's most powerful political parties have taken advantage of the system to avoid accountability or ban the politics they oppose.
The next challenge for Aoun and Salam will be to make their point as they face a political system built on sectarianism.
Lebanon's separatist system “requires new strategies”, Majed said, adding that Lebanon needs to contain violence and state institutions and weapons and “a way to protect Lebanon from real Israeli wars”.
Under the current sectarian system, Lebanon is governed by a number of political parties and leaders who have deep support and control over public institutions. These leaders, who travel through religious circles in Lebanon, are accused of using these resources and their political power to build their networks, holding people accountable to them and not the government.
These forces are fixed in their places and cannot change.
“We need to make the necessary changes in Lebanon politically, and I don't know if it will be possible,” Hilal Khashan, a political scientist at the American University of Beirut and a former colleague of Salam's, told Al Jazeera.
Electing strong or new leaders to office is not what is needed to eradicate entrenched corruption and clientelism. For example, Salam is not the first technocrat to take a major role in Lebanon.
“The difference is that, in the past, the technocrats took control while the political class wanted to procrastinate,” Houry said. “They weren't brought with any legitimacy, which depends on the political class, so they didn't have the power or the support to organize many changes.”
But today, the many problems in Lebanon mean that the political class understands that it must allow some change – even if it continues to oppose the change of the system.
Salam and Aoun will have to deal with questions related to economic stability, security and national dialogue without excluding any group and managing foreign relations, including Israeli violence. The stories behind it are long and complicated.
Analysts, however, said Salam and Aoun have a unique advantage. The fall of al-Assad's government, continued intervention in Lebanese affairs, the weakening of Iran and the willingness of foreign countries to provide foreign aid and support to Lebanon's new leaders means that there is unprecedented support for change. There.
Even so, dealing with Lebanon's deeply entrenched and resilient political class will remain a daunting task. Many analysts said that although they had positive feelings about Salam's appointment, they had doubts about whether anyone would be able to remove the Lebanese political system.
However, Khashan said, Salam “is the right person at this time”.