Hectic two weeks leave Russia confident

2:30 in the morning.

Inside the Kremlin's walls, I wander alone through the huge sites, trying – and I fail – to find my exit.

I notice a checkpoint, I approach and show my passport.

“Nyet vykhoda!” (“No way out!”) Responds to the security. He points in the opposite direction.

I go back and eventually come to another checkpoint.

“No way out!” Says Sentry.

I'm lost. Inside the Kremlin. On the night of the night.

It's like being in a John Le Care novel.

It was a lot of evening. I arrived at 5:00 pm. Together with a small group of journalists, I was invited to an event with President Putin. What event? For starters, the Kremlin would not say. In the end, we were told that Vladimir Putin would take questions.

Eight hours later, the president entered the Malachite hall of the Grand Kremlin Palace and sat down at a desk.

But there was a change in the plan. No press conference. No questions. Instead, live on Russian television, Putin made a statement in which he offered direct conversations between Russia and Ukraine in Istanbul.

The event ends, I leave the Kremlin Palace, but I'm leaving the wrong turn. Finally, I find the right way out and, blurred my eyes, take a taxi at home.

It was the beginning of what turned out to be a real two -week roller coaster. What started with the Kremlin's statement on a late night continued with peace talks in Turkey and then a two -hour phone call between Putin and Donald Trump.

But at the end of this are we closer to peace in Ukraine?

It doesn't feel that way.

Although there is talk of more conversations and a possible future “memorandum” of “possible future peace”, all this sounds quite unclear.

For now, the fighting continues.

Russia is still refusing to register in an unconditional comprehensive termination of fire. He has no intention of returning any of the Ukrainian lands she seized, occupied and claims to have been applied. On the contrary: he insists on more.

Currently, Ukraine's peaceful process looks like a loss in the Kremlin late at night.

It is difficult to see the way out.

Yet the last two weeks have revealed a lot.

First, how Russia neutralizes potential threats and points of pressure.

The Kremlin critics would say this in another way: how Russia plays for the weather.

On May 10 (a few hours before I was lost to the Kremlin), after a phone call with Donald Trump, European leaders issued an ultimatum to President Putin: agree to unconditionally long -term fire in Ukraine for two days or face new sanctions.

Since March, the Trump administration has called on Russia and Ukraine to accept a 30-day overall termination of fire. Kyiv agreed. Moscow is not so.

The Kremlin leader circumnavigates the European ultimatum with his proposal for direct talks in Turkey. The idea was met with skepticism in Ukraine and throughout Europe. But that was enough to put Trump and convince him that Russia seriously wanted peace. He was all about the conversations. “Strengthening” the new sanctions slowed down.

Prior to Istanbul's meeting on May 16, President Trump gave the impression that Vladimir Putin could be present. The Kremlin leader does not, by sending a low -level relatively delegation instead, once again rejected the idea of ​​long -term ceasefire. But again, the modest conversation results were enough to convince the President of the United States that progress was being made.

Then came Trump-Putin's phone call on May 19th.

At the end of this, Russia had not yet agreed to an immediate overall termination of hostilities. Instead, according to President Trump, “Russia and Ukraine will immediately start negotiations to end the fire and more importantly – the end of the war.”

But Moscow is already in doubt whether it will sign a future peace treaty with Ukrainian President Volodimir Zelenski. For one year, the Russian authorities have been trying to delegate the President of Ukraine after the expiration of his presidential term. However, Ukraine's constitution prohibits wartime elections.

And the reason for the martial law in Ukraine is the invasion of Russia.

“Will Russia sit and sign a peace agreement with President Zelenski?” I asked Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on Friday.

“You put the cart in front of the horse,” replied d -Lavrov. “We must first achieve a deal. When it is agreed, then we will decide. But as President Putin says many times, President Zelenski has no legitimacy … Probably the best option would be the new election …”

The Russian media came to the conclusion that after two weeks diplomacy Moscow strengthened its hand.

“Russia won the last round of the global poker,” said Izvestiya newspaper last week.

“Donald Trump's position cannot be more advantageous for Moscow,” Kommersant writes. “In fact, he supported Russia's position for” conversations first, ending the fire later “and refused to strengthen sanctions against Russia.”

A social scientist told Kmerssant: “Donald Trump, at least for now, is our ideological partner on certain issues. His views are much closer to those of Russia than for Europe.”

And Ultra Pro-Kremlin Komsomolskaya Pravda had this message for European leaders:

“You were warned.

“Just sit in the lobby and breathe in the smell of the new world order.”

Moscow's confidence is also fueled by the belief that in Ukraine it leads the battlefield initiative.

Already in 2023, Donald Trump promised that if he won the presidency, “we will have a terrible war between Russia and Ukraine, settled … I will take them both. I know that Zelenski, I know Putin. It will happen within 24 hours.”

Trump has been in the oval office for more than four months, but the “horrible war” continues.

In rare cases, he publicly reprimanded the Kremlin and threatens more sanctions. Last month he said, “… There was no reason for Putin to shoot rockets in civilian areas, cities in the last few days. It makes me think that he may not want to stop the war, he just eavesdrop on me and should be considered differently through” banking “or” secondary sanctions? “

But there are no subsequent follow -up. The US President seems to be undesirable to increase the pressure on the Kremlin, instead signaled to Moscow that he wants to restart US-Russia relations.

Following the telephone conversation of Presidents, Putin's foreign policy adviser Yuri Ushakov, who sat down in the conversation, told reporters: “Trump speaks quite emotionally about the prospects for (bilateral) relationships. Trump sees Russia as one of the most important partners in America on commercial and economic issues.”

President Trump seems to be determined to continue his rapprochement with Russia, whatever happened to Ukraine.

And Moscow feels that.

“President Trump does not associate US-Russia-Russia dialogue with the peaceful process of Ukraine,” was a title in Russian government paper Rossiya Gazeta this week.

This does not mean that the Kremlin has gone completely from the danger of additional restrictions. The US Senate has threatened difficult new sanctions against Russia if Moscow does not take diplomacy seriously.

Until now, the Kremlin has managed to divert or circumvent any pressure, subjected to compromise and discounts on his war against Ukraine.

It seems confident that he will continue to do so.