Hopes for a cease-fire in Gaza are rising as pressure mounts on Hamas and Israel

The outlines of a Gaza ceasefire and hostage release deal currently being discussed by Israel and Hamas in indirect talks in Doha have been on the table since May. So why are there new expectations that it can work after being frozen for eight months of war?

There are several things that have shifted – both politically and on the ground.

The first is the election of Donald Trump as the next president of the United States.

He has threatened that “all hell” would break loose if the hostages are not released before his inauguration on January 20.

Hamas may read this as a sign that even the fragile brakes used by the Biden administration to try to rein in the Israeli government will be removed, although it is hard to imagine what that might mean for a territory that is already so broken by 15 months of war.

Israel is also under pressure from the incoming president to end the conflict in Gaza, which threatens to derail Trump's hopes of securing a broader regional deal and his desired image of a president who ends wars.

On the other hand, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces continued pressure from his far-right coalition allies to continue the war.

But Trump could also be an asset for him to convince his allies to swallow the deal and stay in government; the new US president and his pick for Israeli ambassador are seen as supportive of Israel's settlers in the occupied West Bank, which Israeli far-right Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich said he wanted to annex.

But after a meeting with the prime minister last night, Smotrich appeared unconvinced, writing on social media that the current deal was a “disaster” for Israel's national security and that he would not support it.

However, some in Israel believe that both Smotrich and his far-right ally, National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, see their current role in Israel's government as their best chance to consolidate control over the West Bank, especially with the return of Trump in the White House and that they are unlikely to follow through on their threats to leave.

The second thing that has changed is the increasing pressure on Netanyahu from his own military department.

It has been widely reported that key figures have repeatedly challenged him about the declining military objectives in continuing the war since the assassination of senior Hamas leadership and the destruction of Gaza.

Last week, 10 Israeli soldiers were killed in Gaza, shedding new light on the cost of the war to Israel and on the perennial question of whether the “total victory” over Hamas that Netanyahu has promised is achievable.

Some analysts now suggest that Hamas is recovering faster than Israel is defeating it, and therefore Israel needs to rethink its strategy.

There is a third – regional – change that plays a role in shifting expectations here: the weakening and erosion of Hamas' allies in Iran's “Axis of Resistance”from Hezbollah in Lebanon to Bashar al-Assad in Syria, along with the assassination of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar in Gaza.

For all these reasons, it is now seen as the best chance in months to bridge the gap between Israel and Hamas and end the war.

What hasn't changed in the eight months since their last talks are the gaps between them.

Key among them is a direct conflict between the primary concern of Hamas, which wants to end the war, and that of Israel, which wants to keep the door open to renewed conflict, whether for political or military reasons.

the deal as outlined by President Joe Biden in Mayis divided into three phases, with a permanent ceasefire only coming into effect in the second phase.

Success is now likely to depend on whether guarantees can be found to allay Hamas fears that Israel will withdraw from the deal after the first phase of hostage releases.

Questions about how to govern the territory from which Israel is withdrawing are also unclear at this stage.

But the web of diplomacy criss-crossing the region over the past week and the fact that Netanyahu sent Israel's security chiefs to the Doha talks, along with a key political adviser, are encouraging signs.

So is the departure for Doha of the Palestinian detainee coordinator, Kadura Fares.

The deal is still not done – and talks have broken down before.

That old deal is fueling new hopes in part because the talks are taking place in a new regional context, with pressure mounting both domestically and from key allies abroad.