For the second time in less than a decade, Mexico is preparing for talks with President-elect Donald J. Trump, who has threatened the neighboring country with high tariffs, mass deportations and a military crackdown on cartels.
For Mexico's 130 million people, the risk is huge. Among major economies, Mexico is exceptionally dependent on the United States, sending about 80 percent of its exports to the American market.
This time, Mexico's top negotiators are taking an ambitious stance to negotiate with Mr. Trump. Some of them can draw on the experience of the first Trump administration: Mexico's then-populist president Andrés Manuel López Obrador, established a warm relationship with Mr. Trump and Mexico avoided steep tariffs while accepting demands to curb migration.
“We will find a solution because we have structural advantages,” Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard said this month, citing factors such as greater economic interdependence between the two countries and a reduction in fentanyl deaths and migration.
The tone of this approach was set by Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum. While the Mexican government has failed to meet with the incoming Trump administration, it has mixed conciliatory words for Mr. Trump. rhetorical thrust and promises that Mexico can respond response rates own
“We coordinate, we cooperate, but we will never obey,” Ms. Sheinbaum said in a speech this month.
Meanwhile, Ms. Sheinbaum's administration has already mobilized to address some of Mr. Trump's concerns. migration prevention efforts and increases seizures from illicit opioids.
A cornerstone of that strategy is a bet that the new administration in Washington needs Mexico and its rapidly expanding, low-cost industrial base if it hopes to stand up to its biggest rival, China.
Here are four factors informing Mexico's willingness to work with the new Trump administration.
Mexico is increasingly important to the US economy.
Mexico's economic relationship with the United States has changed significantly since Mr. Trump was last in the White House, particularly as the coronavirus pandemic disrupted global supply chains.
Mexico overtook China as the top U.S. trading partner for goods in 2023 as manufacturers moved operations to Mexico to be closer to the American market.
Trade ties deepened last year with Mexico's conversion to China is the main source of imports The best destination for United States and America food export.
“This is an unprecedented level of interdependence,” said Diego Marrogin Bitar, a scholar specializing in North American trade at the Wilson Center, a research group in Washington.
The Mexican government is exhibiting these trade ties because imposing US tariffs on Mexico could increase inflation and hurt American consumers.
But these deepening ties also leave Mexico with growing vulnerabilities.
One could be money transfers. Mexicans working in the U.S. sent $63 billion home in 2023, more than double what they did when Mr. Trump took office eight years ago, and mass deportations could push that figure down.
Tax transfer proposals, including a bill sponsored by Vice President-elect JD Vance gains momentum.
Migration flows and fentanyl deaths decrease.
Although Mr. Trump has repeatedly sounded the alarm about migration from Mexico, illegal crossings along the US-Mexico border are at an all-time high. the lowest level Since the summer of 2020. Only about 46,000 people crossed the border illegally in November, the lowest number under President Biden.
of the Biden administration restrictions granting asylum to migrants contributed to this decline. But so did policies in Mexico, which sought to prevent migrants from reaching the U.S. border, mostly from other Latin American countries.
Mexico fell apart migrant caravans and extended the shadow bus program This has moved thousands of migrants from the northern border of the country to areas in the south.
Exactly in the last quarter of 2024, Mexico intensified Authorities said the crackdown was more than double the number apprehended in the first nine months of the year, arresting nearly 475,000 migrants. These are the majority of migrants released quicklyallowing them to stay in Mexico; only a small proportion are deported to their home countries.
Another issue that Mr. Trump often cites is the impact of illegal drugs flowing across the border, particularly fentanyl. After rising to alarming levels, overdose deaths from illegal drugs are also declining. In the 12 months ending June 2024, they fell by about 14.5 percent year-on-year.
Experts say treatment, prevention and education are expanding in the United States played a role in this decrease. Although more evidence is needed, the US is trying to squeeze chemical precursors from China and Mexican cartels. using these chemicals fentanyl can also limit supply.
Ms. Scheinbaum has also begun targeting the fentanyl trade. Mexican security forces last month caught The country's largest synthetic opioid seizure 20 million doses of the drug.
Cartel violence is still on the rise in large areas.
A reduction in border crossings or fentanyl overdoses won't make much of a difference if Mr. Trump chooses to focus on cartel bloodshed spanning large parts of Mexico as the basis for imposing tariffs on his exports.
Clashes between rival cartel groups have recently turned the northwestern state of Sinaloa into one war zone. Cruel political conspiracies Hated Guerrero, located in southwestern Mexico.
Turf battles in Guanajuato, the auto manufacturing hub northwest of Mexico City, have been marked by one man. carnage after else in recent weeks.
During his time previous periodand again campaigning for a new term, Mr. Trump has raised the possibility of military action against cartels to curb illegal drug smuggling into the United States. The designation of these groups as potentially “terrorist organizations” may pave the way for such actions.
The Mexican government has long viewed such a possibility as an unthinkable violation of its sovereignty. But some former officials with experience negotiating with Mr. Trump warn that Mexico should take such threats seriously.
Ms. Sheinbaum stressed her readiness last week Marco RubioCooperating with Mr. Trump's pick for Secretary of State to prevent cartel activity.
Ms. Scheinbaum said of Mr. Rubio: “We take him at his word.
“Trump 2.0 will be a different Trump,” said former economy minister Ildefonso Guajardo, who negotiated with the Trump administration in 2017 and 2018. about some decisions”.
Although fentanyl-related deaths have declined in the U.S., the drug still kills tens of thousands of people each year. The explosion of violence in Sinaloa highlights how the gangs responsible for the fentanyl trade remain active and well-armed.
So is China's economic profile in Mexico.
Recently a flood of imported Chinese cars The entry into Mexico has heightened tensions over the ways in which China is turning to key industries in North America.
Mexico, which has a $105 billion trade deficit with China, has moved quickly in recent weeks to allay concerns that China could use its foothold in Mexico to gain greater access to U.S. markets.
Seen as tariffs applied by Mexico targeting Online Chinese retailers such as Temu and Shein then announced new industry policies last week reduction Imports from China while strengthening supply chains to the US.
With such measures, the Mexican government is trying to drive home the claim that the United States needs Mexico to face the greater economic threat of China. But will it be enough for Mr. Trump?
Otherwise, and if relations with Washington deteriorate significantly, Mexico still has a sort of “nuclear option” of strengthening economic ties with China. according to To Scott Morgenstern, professor of political science at the University of Pittsburgh.
“As Beijing seeks greater influence in Latin America, Mexico could become Washington's biggest economic rival,” Mr. Morgenstern said.