Islamic State has lost thousands of fighters to death or imprisonment and suffered the collapse of its self-proclaimed caliphate in Iraq and Syria. But the group, also known as ISIS, still has a large global reach, thanks in part to its sophisticated media presence and the people around the world who consume it.
A man carrying an Islamic State flag drove a car into a crowd in New Orleans on New Year's Day, killing at least 14 people. The authorities said that there is no evidence that the person named Shamsud-Din Bahar Jabbar has an active connection with the terrorist group. But the FBI said “he was 100 percent inspired by ISIS.”
It is not yet clear what specific online content Mr. Jabbar saw or how he became more radicalized. Experts noted that the placement of the flag on the truck was similar to the one depicted in 2012 by ISIS. media campaign urging his followers to “overcome them without mercy.” And authorities say he posted several videos on his Facebook account before the attack in which he pledged allegiance to ISIS.
From online videos to social media platforms — even a weekly Islamic State newsletter — the group, which seeks to compel all Muslims to strictly adhere to the religion's basic teachings, has a very modern media strategy.
“Terrorism is essentially communication,” said Hans-Jakob Schindler, a former United Nations diplomat and CEO of the Counter-Extremism Project, a think tank with offices in New York and Berlin. “It's not a war because it's clear that ISIS cannot defeat the West militarily, right? They tried and it didn't end well.”
Terrorist newsletter
How did the Islamic State maintain its influence? Partly by turning it into a global franchise outside the Middle East, with active units in Afghanistan, Somalia, Mali, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the Caucasus and Turkey, among other places.
But it is the sophisticated Islamic State media operation that binds the disparate branches together and helps inspire “lone wolf” terrorists like Mr Jabbar who carry out their own attacks. Experts say that while the media operation has a physical headquarters, it is highly centralized and managed by a media office. Most of its output comes from branches in Africa, which seem to be the most active in terms of attacks lately.
The group also publishes a weekly online newsletter called Al Naba, or The News, which details the group's recent exploits and incites followers to commit acts of violence.
“Al Naba's newsletter comes out every Thursday like clockwork, which is one of the most effective things a group can do,” said Cole Bunzel, a scholar of Islam who studies Middle East warfare at Stanford University's Hoover Institution.
“They have an editorial; they cover the various provinces, as they are called; they cover that week's attacks. They count the number of attacks and casualties they claim. And it's a key way for them to connect with their global support base,” he said.
The latest edition of the newsletter, published on January 2, did not mention the New Orleans attack and did not claim responsibility for it.
Aaron Zelin, a fellow at the Washington Institute, who has tracked the activities and propaganda of Islamist groups for more than 15 years, said Al Naba was initially broadcast through the Telegram messaging app and other platforms, and is constantly adapting as different channels are closed.
According to the researchers, supporters of the group also spread messages on Twitter, Facebook pages and other social media platforms. When user profiles are blocked, they often create new ones. Islamic State has used decentralized internet tools that are harder to block and moved some of its messaging to the dark web, Mr. Zelin said.
Terrorism analysts say it has been easy for extremists to connect with potential supporters on social media because there has been little effort by some of the companies that run the platforms, as well as by governments, to force the crackdown.
Mr. Schindler said that in the wake of the New Orleans attack, both political parties should ask: “Why does this industry with its huge profits not help our security services prevent such attacks? Why don't we get information about the presence of a terrorist or the process of radicalization here, like we do from banks and every financial institution in North America and around the world?”
Terrorism experts say the Islamic State's ownership of the media and message is key to its success. Al Qaeda, from which the Islamic State split in 2013, laid the groundwork by publishing both online and print magazines, producing videos as well as social media.
'Kill them wherever you find them'
In January 2024, the extremist group revived a campaign aimed at its global supporters: “kill wherever you find it,” a reference to the Quranic verse.
The idea, first floated in 2015, was to encourage would-be followers to wage jihad at home rather than travel to Iraq and Syria. After the defeat of the Caliphate, this concept became even more relevant.
He was famous for posting gruesome images of violence, such as the beheading of photojournalist James Wright Foley, as Islamic State gained ground in Syria and then Iraq (2013-2017) and sought to gain followers in the West.
Now, experts say social media platforms are doing much of the work of spreading the Islamic State's message, as algorithms that try to boost engagement push some users deeper into the extremist worldview.
“Terrorist groups no longer have to work hard to radicalize people; the algorithm does it for them,” Mr. Schindler said. “The goal of the algorithm is to keep the user on the platform, give them what they like, and if it's Islamic extremism or you're in the process of radicalization, your outlook changes.”
In Syria, where Islamic State took advantage of a protracted civil war to seize large swathes of territory, only to eventually lose it to US-backed fighters, the group has begun to rally, ramping up its attacks. That trend may continue, as President Bashar al-Assad's regime was abruptly ousted in December by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, another extremist group once linked to Islamic State and al-Qaeda.
The situation is still fluid, though some analysts fear He said the Islamic State could regain its footing in the chaos. The group's newsletter Hayat Tahrir spoke dismissively of al-Sham as “jihadists turned politicians” but did not call for attacks against them.
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and other rebel groups, meanwhile, say they should take over the role of guarding Islamic State prisoners in eastern Syria and run camps that hold about 40,000 Islamic State fighters and their families. The US-backed Kurdish-led Syrian Defense Forces. Many terrorism experts question how Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, once linked to the Islamic State but later acrimoniously split, can fulfill its mission of suppressing it.
The Islamic State recently renewed its “Break the Walls” media campaign, which encourages imprisoned fighters to break out of prisons in eastern Syria and free their families.
If it succeeds, Mr. Zelin said, it will be a “disaster.”