When Hamas militants led a deadly cross-border raid on October 7, 2023, they triggered a war with Israel that devastated Gaza. They also created shock waves that reshaped the Middle East in unexpected ways.
Strong alliances fell apart. The long-established “red lines” have been crossed. The decades-long dictatorship in the center of the region was swept away.
Fifteen months after the October attacks, a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas will begin on Sunday, here's a look at how the region has changed dramatically.
Israel
Israel has regained military superiority, but may face heavy diplomatic and domestic costs.
The country's leaders view the attacks led by Hamas as an existential threat and are determined to defeat Hamas and weaken its main backer, Iran. In addition to weakening Hamas in Gaza, Israel has also destroyed Lebanon's Shiite group Hezbollah, dealing a heavy blow to Iran's network of allies in the Middle East.
Closer to home and in the sphere of global public opinion, Israel's successes have been more unequivocal. Although the attack on Gaza seriously weakened Hamas, it did not destroy it, as the government promised.
Israel's economy has been devastated by the war, and the country's polarized politics (briefly overlooked when the war began) appear to have returned to their shambles. The country's international status is in shambles, threatening its diplomatic goals of normalizing relations with Saudi Arabia.
Those dynamics could change once again with the inauguration on Monday of President-elect Donald J. Trump, who has tried to normalize relations between Arab states and Israel during his first term, and may try to revive those efforts.
In the long term, it is difficult to predict what threats Israel will face from a generation of young Lebanese and Palestinians traumatized by the death and destruction that Israeli bombing has brought to their families and homes.
Hamas
On October 7, Hamas and its leader Yahya Sinwar asked them to start a wider regional war between Israel and Hamas allies. But the group could not predict how the conflict would end.
For Palestinian civilians, the future looks bleaker than ever.
Israeli bombing and occupation have forced nearly all Gazans from their homes and killed more than 45,000 people, according to Gaza's health authorities, which do not distinguish between civilians and fighters. Israel has destroyed large areas of the enclave.
Israel killed Mr. Sinwar and other senior Hamas military and political figures, and the group's popularity among Gazans has waned, although US officials have. to guess Hamas has gained as many fighters as it has lost in more than 15 months of fighting.
However, his remaining leaders can claim his survival as a victory.
Israel insists that Hamas cannot rule the enclave after the war, but has resisted calls for a plan for a post-war Gaza. Gulf countries such as Saudi Arabia now say they will not normalize relations with Israel unless they commit to the creation of a Palestinian state.
Lebanon
Once the crown jewel of Iran's so-called axis of resistance, the splintered Hezbollah has weakened its grip on Lebanon. But Israel's occupation and bombing has left Lebanon facing billions of dollars in reconstruction costs amid the economic crisis that preceded the war.
Hezbollah, formerly Lebanon's dominant political and military force, has experienced a dramatic change in fortunes since the 2023 attacks. Israel has killed most of its top leaders, including Hassan Nasrullah. Iran, its patron, weakened. And its supply lines through Syria are under threat. More broadly, the group's key promise to Lebanon — that it could single-handedly protect the country from Israel — has failed.
Years of political gridlock, largely blamed on the militant group, eased enough this month for Lebanon's parliament to elect a new president and appoint a prime minister backed by the United States and Saudi Arabia.
Despite the strikes, Hezbollah is still able to field thousands of fighters and enjoys support from Lebanon's large Shiite Muslim community. He may yet find a way to rebuild in Lebanon's crooked political system.
Syria
Last month's overthrow of Bashar al-Assad—one of the most dramatic and unexpected outcomes of October 7—toppled a brutal authoritarian regime. But the inevitable confusion that followed created conditions for new power struggles.
For nearly 13 years, Mr. Al-Assad largely contained his family's rebellion against 50 years of rule with the help of Russia, Hezbollah and Iran.
But as Moscow focused on the war in Ukraine and Iran and Hezbollah dodged Israeli attacks, rebels led by the Turkish-backed Hayat Tahrir al-Sham Islamists sensed an opportunity. They passed through Syria and overthrew the government in a few days.
Backed by Iran and Russia, Turkey is now in a prime position to play a key role in Syria. Moscow hopes to retain some of its naval and air bases, but the fate of its negotiations with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham is uncertain.
Meanwhile, the United States maintains a small military presence in Syria to fight the Islamic State terrorist group and is allied with Kurdish-led forces that Turkey considers its enemy. Israel has seized the Syrian territory near the Golan Heights as a buffer zone and is conducting extensive airstrikes on the Syrian army and weapons facilities.
Syria's neighbors and European nations, which host millions of Syrian refugees, are watching closely to see if the country achieves stability or descends back into violent chaos.
Iran
Iran's network of powerful regional alliances has crumbled, leaving the country vulnerable and potentially motivated to develop nuclear weapons.
Iran, long seen as one of the Middle East's most influential powers, has been seriously weakened over the past 15 months after being re-aligned. It has effectively lost much of its once-powerful “axis of resistance,” the network of allies it used to counter the influence of the United States and Israel.
Its closest partner, Hezbollah, is now too weak to pose a serious threat to Israel. And with Mr. al-Assad ousted from Syria, Iran has lost its influence over a country that provides arms and a critical supply line for militants.
Previous red lines that kept the region from all-out war have been erased: since Israel He killed the political leader of Hamas While Ismail Haniyeh was a guest in Tehran, Iran and Israel organized direct air attacks on each other.
It is unclear exactly where this will leave Tehran. Feeling increasingly vulnerable, a weakened Iranian government may be forced to weaponize its decades-long nuclear program. US officials have warned Iran that it could take only a few weeks to enrich uranium to bomb-grade levels.