How Trump's threats revived the Liberal Party in Canada

If you had asked the Canadians a few months ago who would win the next general election in the country, most would have predicted a decisive victory for the Conservative Party.

This result doesn't look so sure now.

As a result of the threats of US President Donald Trump's President Donald Trump against Canada, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's Liberal Party appeared in the ballot box, shrinking the two -digit conducting of their conservative rivals ever since mid -2023.

The dramatic change in the country's political landscape reflects how Trump's tariffs and its repeated calls to make Canada 51 State to change the priorities of Canadian voters.

Trump's rhetoric “repelled all other issues”, which were first for the Canadians before taking office on January 20, notes Luke Turge, a professor of political science at the University of Ottawa.

He even managed to revive the deeply unpopular Trudeau, whose percentage of approval has risen 12 points since December. The prime minister, of course, will not be much longer in power by announcing his resignation at the beginning of the year.

On Sunday, his liberals will announce the results of the leadership competition to determine who is taking over a party governing an uncertain minority government. The new leader will have two immediate decisions to make: how to respond to Trump's threats and when to call the common elections. The answer to the first dilemma will surely affect the second.

Who runs to replace Trudeau as the leader of the Liberal Party?

The federal elections should be held on or before October 20, but can be called this week.

The polls show that many Canadians still want a change in the top. But what would this change look like – a liberal government under a new leadership or a full transition to the Conservatives – now is someone's assumption, says Greg Lyle, president of the innovative research group based in Toronto, which explores Canadians for their displacement attitudes.

“So far, it was a blow out of the Conservatives,” he told the BBC.

This is because the right of the centers, led by Pierre Polyver, has been effective in its messages on issues that have occupied the Canadian psyche over the last few years: increasing costs of life, housing inaccessibility, crime and a tense health system.

Poiliev has successfully tied these social problems to what he has indicated by Trudeau's “catastrophic” policies, and promised to return to the “common sense”.

But with Trudo's resignation and Trump's threats to Canada's economic security and even her sovereignty, this message was stagnant, says G -N Lyle. His survey suggests that the greater part of the country is now afraid of the most of the Trump Presidency and the impact it will have on Canada.

25% Trump's tariffs for all Canadian US Canadians, some of which have been stopped by April 2, may be detrimental to the Canada economy, which sends three -quarters of all its products to the United States. Officials have provided up to a million job losses as a result and Canada can be directed to a recession if the tax on the goods continues.

Trudeau did not doubt how seriously he took the threat when he told reporters this week that Trump had told the cause of the US tariffs – the flow of fentanyl across the border – was false and unjustified.

“What he wants is to see a complete breakdown of the Canadian economy because it will facilitate our annexation,” the prime minister warned.

“In many ways, this is everything covering, a major issue of the country's survival,” Prof. Turgeon told the BBC. Therefore, which is best to defend Canada against Trump, has become the main question in the upcoming elections.

Conservatives are still to be in the ballot box, with the smallest average values ​​suggesting that 40% of the voters support them. Meanwhile, the wealth of the liberals were revived, with their support climbing just over 30% – over 10 points since January.

The liberals tried to emphasize the similarities between the conservative leader and the Republican president. In the debate on the leadership of last week, candidates cited poilievre as “our small version of Trump here at home” and said he was seeking to “imitate” the US president. Advertisement to attack a liberal party compared clips of both using similar phrases as “fake news” and “radical left”.

However, there are clear differences between the two politicians in terms of style and nature. And Trump himself downplayed all kinds of parallels, telling the British magazine of the viewer in a recent interview that Poiliev “is not enough Mag.”

However, polls suggest the slipping of conservative support. A recent poll of the National Expatience Angus Reed shows that Canadians believe that the front liberal leadership competitor Mark Carney is better prepared to deal with Trump on tariffs and commerce than poiliev.

The former central banker for both Canada and England, expressed his attempt to deal with economic crises, including the 2008 financial disaster and Brexit.

And the change in the political mood forced the Conservatives to recalculate their messages.

If the election is called soon, the campaign will take place at a time when Trump's threats have inspired fierce patriotism among the Canadians. Are many Boycotting American goods in their local grocery stores or even canceling trips to the United States.

Prof. Targian says this “rally around the flag” has become a key topic of Canadian politics.

The conservatives have deviated from their slogan “Canada is broken”, which Mr Lyle says he risks encountering “anti-patriotic” to Canada First.

Conservatives also diverted their attacks on Carney. Before Trump's tariffs, they released ads, saying he was “just like Justin” in an attempt to tie him with a Trudeau. But in recent weeks, the Conservatives have begun to dig into the loyalty of Carney to Canada.

Moreover, they have asked whether he plays a role in moving the Broookfield Asset Management headquarters – a Canadian investment company – from Toronto to New York when he was its chairman.

Carney replied that he had left the company until the decision was made, but the company's documents reported by the public television operator CBC show that the board approved this move in October 2024, when Karni was still in Brookfield.

This move and the attraction of Carney for his participation with him were criticized by the editorial board of the National Globe and Postation National newspaper, which he wrote on Thursday that Carney should be transparent to the Canadians.

In a broader terms, the document writes: “Every party leader must understand that Canada is entering a long-standing period of uncertainty. The next Prime Minister will have to summon the Canadians' confidence to lead the country he has to go to, but may not want to go.”

Given the anxiety reflecting among the Canadians, G -Lil says that any ambiguity about Carney's loyalty to the country can still be harmful to him and the liberals.

Every time the election comes and whoever wins, one thing is for sure: Trump will continue to influence and reshape Canadian politics, just as he has in the United States.