After President Donald Trump's prices and the uncertainty he has created, the United States and the global economies will be significantly slowed down. International Monetary Fund Said Tuesday.
The IMF said that this year the global economy will only increase 2.8 %, which is less than 3.3 percent forecast in January, according to its latest global economic approach. And in 2026, the fund is predicted that the global growth will be three percent, less than the previous 3.3 percent estimate.
And this fund is the world's two largest economies, weakening, weakening to China and the United States: US economic growth will only come at 1.8 percent this year, which will be 2.7 percent from its previous forecast and a full percentage of its extension of 2024. IMF US does not expect a recessionAlthough it has increased one difficulty this year from 25 % to 40 %.
China is now likely to expand this year and its next prediction below the HALF half point, this year and its next part.
“We are entering a new era,” said Perry Oliver Gorenchas, the IMF chief economist. “This global economic system, which has worked for the past years, is being resolved.”
The forecast has clarified the widespread impact of both their rates and uncertainty. The IMF said that every country in the world is affected, through US import tax hikes, which have now increased the average US duties to about 25 %, the highest in a century.
Petition is largely in accordance with the expectations of private sector economists, though some fear that recession is more likely. JP Morgan economists say the chances of US recession are now 60 %. The Federal Reserve has also predicted that growth will weaken by 1.7 % this year.
The IMF is a 191 -lending organization that works to promote economic growth and financial stability and reduce global poverty.
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Gurinchas said that due to the uncertainty of import taxes, the IMF took extraordinary steps to prepare several different scenario for future development in the future. Its prediction was finalized on April 4, when the Trump administration announced the cleansing of prices with about 60 %, along with about 60 %, with about 60 %.
The duties stopped on April 9 for 90 days. Gorenchas said the break did not change the IMF's prediction enough because since then the United States and China have imposed such steep taxes on each other.
The Trump administration has eliminated 25 % import tax on most of Canada and Mexico, along with duties on cars, steel and aluminum. The White House has also imposed 10 % tax on all imports, and is a huge duty of 145 % on goods from China, though smartphones and computers have been exempt. China has retaliated with 125 % foot on US goods.
The IMF said the uncertainty of the Trump administration's next tricks would also be likely to weigh a lot on the United States and the global economies. In a blog post, Gurinchas warned that most of the traded goods are parts that eat in the finished products, and the tax chains may be disrupted, as happened during pandemic diseases.
He wrote, “Companies facing uncertain market access will potentially keep in the near term, reduce investment and reduce costs.”
It is expected that lower -developed countries will be targeted less than US prices, Mexico's economy is now expected to decline 0.3 percent this year, which is less than the previous project of 1.4 percent. South Africa is predicted this year that is less than 1.5 percent of the project in January.
Although the US economy will face supply tremors, Gurinchas said, with China's purchase in China's exports, China's demand will be reduced.
Inflation will probably increase in the United States, which will increase by about three percent by the end of this year, while the IMF's forecast will change in China.
In his blog post, Gorinchas admitted that there was a “severe impression that globalization had unfairly displaced many domestic manufacturing jobs” and added that “these complaints have something good.”
But he added, “The deep strength behind this fall is technological development and automation, not globalization.” Gurinchas noted that both Germany, which has extra money in the goods trade, and the United States, which has a deficit, has been relatively at the level of factory in recent decades, even due to automation, manufacturing has decreased employment.
The IMF is expected to withdraw a large part of China's economy, but it has also been predicted that additional costs by the Chinese government will eliminate most of the hit.
The European Union is predicted to grow slowly, but the remittance of revenue is not so large, part of it is that it faces less US duties than China. In addition, some of the tariffs will be offered through the German government's strong expenses.
The economies of 27 countries using the euro are predicted that this year will be an extension of 0.8 percent this year and 1.2 percent next year, which is only 0.2 percent in the two years since the IMF's January forecast.
Japan's growth prediction is 0.6 percent this year and next, 0.5 percent and 0.2 percent respectively compared to January.
In a separate report on Tuesday, the IMF warned that “the risks of global financial stability have increased significantly,” with a deteriorating economic approach. The fund said that the recent market route from Trump's prices has led to some stock and bond prices.
The IMF also warned that “some financial institutions may be under pressure in the volatile markets,” especially pointing to heavy debtor funds and assets management companies, and the danger is that they will already be forced to sell cash by selling investment in the Fergel Market.
B (b (b (AP Economics author Paul Viceman participated in the report.