Since the election of Donald Trump as President of the United States, there has been growing discussion about what his next administration in Afghanistan might look like.
Many are hoping for a bolder stance against the Taliban, but a closer look at Trump's record and statements on the issue suggests that he will not significantly change the anti-interventionist policies he pursued during his first term in office.
In his first term as president, Trump has made it clear that he is opposed to long-term foreign affairs and in particular the US presence in Afghanistan for many years. He was the architect of 2020 Doha Agreement between the US and the Taliban, which led to the US withdrawal from the country and ultimately allowed the Taliban to return to power.
The Doha agreement was a major change in America's approach to Afghanistan. Dissatisfied with the situation in the north of the Assyrians in South Asia, frustrated by the lack of advisers who lead America after having the biggest and most serious war, Trump began to quickly look for a way out of Afghanistan. And when all traditional methods failed to create a way out, they negotiated directly with the Taliban to end the conflict.
If re-elected, Trump is expected to stick to this pro-business approach to foreign policy, which remains popular with his base, and favors success in costly conflicts and military strikes in Afghanistan and elsewhere.
The Taliban also seem to believe that a Trump administration would be beneficial for their future. For example, the government of Afghanistan hopes that the future administration of Trump “will take steps to build cooperation between the two countries and the two countries can open a new chapter of relations”, the spokesman of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Abdul Qahar Balkhi said. post on X in November shortly after Trump's victory in the US election.
The Taliban's hope for a future relationship is based on their initial association with the Trump administration. After all, the Trump administration first negotiated directly with the Taliban, began the US withdrawal from Afghanistan and prepared to return to Kabul.
However, although he has been more open to support the Taliban than President Joe Biden and against direct war, Mr. Trump will not allow the Taliban to do what they like with the country or give it everything they want without a release. cost. If the Taliban fail to make progress on fulfilling their commitments as part of the Doha Agreement, for example, Trump could reduce US aid or redirect it to other areas.
Trump has always argued to reduce foreign aid as part of “America First”, and he may reduce US aid to Afghanistan significantly without giving a reason or condition. Nor would he be averse to imposing severe economic sanctions on the Taliban government if he felt it was harming American interests in some way.
US humanitarian aid is adequate about $40 a week since taking over the Taliban is the most important way to save the poor people in Afghanistan. Any cuts or reductions in US aid would have far-reaching consequences for its health and Afghanistan's fragile economy. Such a decision will exacerbate Afghanistan's economic crisis and undermine progress in education, health and food security.
Since Trump's last term as President, international attention has shifted away from Afghanistan. After the withdrawal of the US and the outbreak of serious international conflicts in Ukraine and Palestine, the country became out of touch with Washington's foreign policy. As an “America First” president who will have to spend a lot of time dealing with problems in the Middle East and Europe, Trump is highly unlikely to treat Afghanistan as anything other than a problem he has already solved.
However, Trump's isolationist tendencies in foreign policy combined with aid cuts and economic sanctions he may impose on the Taliban could lead to the collapse of Afghanistan's economy and make Afghanistan an urgent problem for the US and its allies.
Afghanistan's economic collapse could lead to a new migration crisis, greater regional instability and create a breeding ground for extremist groups, such as ISIS (ISIS) affiliated with Khorasan Provincegrowth.
While Trump's neutrality has appealed to Americans wary of foreign intervention, the challenges of a weak and impoverished Afghanistan could pose long-term security challenges.
Such situations can also have negative consequences for the people of Afghanistan – worsening economic problems and leading to the collapse of medical services, renewed conflicts and isolation from the rest of the world.
When Trump returns to the White House and tries to achieve his “America First” goals, Afghanistan may not be top of his mind. Regardless, the decisions he makes regarding Afghanistan will have important consequences not only for the long-suffering Afghan people but also for the rest of the world.
In short, in his second term, Trump will need to find the right balance between pragmatic disagreements and international leadership positions to succeed in his Afghanistan policy and ensure that his efforts to resolve one conflict do not make another one worse.
The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not reflect Al Jazeera's influence.