NATO allies will try to ensure that this week's meeting has not been off track as a result of US military attacks IranExperts say, but the controversy can still be “elephant in the room”.
US President Donald Trump at the end of Monday Announced that a ceasefire between Israel and Iran It will be phased in a 24 -hour period. However, the possibility of lasting peace between Iran, the United States and the Middle East was uncertain on Tuesday, with it Iran and Israel continue to trade the strike, and Trump has openly expressed his disappointment.
The two -day gathering in the Hague is ready to focus on promoting defense spending of allies and confirming support for Ukraine, but Iran has launched a day after launching revenge missile attacks at the US airport in Qatar.
These attacks are unlikely to be a stimulus NATO However, experts say the collective is committed to Article 5 to defend itself. The reason for this is that any NATO response to the conflict could pose a risk of inciting alliance.
“NATO has no mandate to really join the Middle East conflict,” said Andrea Charon, a professor of political science at the University of Monitoba, and is just struggling to hang NATO together. “
“I don't think the Trump administration wants to negotiate a consensus on the protection of the United States”.
All NATO allies should agree to respond to Article 5 requests with military measures to help a member under the attack. Article 5 is the principle of collective defense: Attack against a member of the military alliance attacks all and will promote a joint response.
To date, on September 11, 2001, after the terrorist attacks on the United States, Article 5 has been summoned only once, which led to a limited NATO -assisted NATO operation in the Middle East. These operations were finally shared by the coalition mission against al -Qaeda and the Taliban in Afghanistan.
However, the current situation in the Middle East is much different.
What is different this time?
The Trump administration has been standing in the fact that it is not fighting with Iran, and that its strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities were in support of Israel's mission.
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“This is not a NATO territory,” said Andrew Rasalese, a former Canadian Defense Department official and a Canadian World Affairs Institute.
“The United States has not been invaded. This is an Israeli problem.”
Qatar's government said on Monday that it successfully stopped most of the short and medium -sized ballistic missiles launched at Alded Air Base by Iran, with both US and Qatari troops. US and Qatari officials said no casualties were reported.
Iran said the attack resembles the number of US bombs falling on its nuclear facilities, and that the targeted base was outside the population areas, which shows that Iran wants to do de -skate.
Although a complete -scale attack on a US military base or embassy in a non -NATO country could be considered a “extremely provocative” attack on US soil, others suspected that it would be enough to mobilize Article 5's request.
“The bases are primarily like a rental property,” said Christian Leopicht, a senior fellow at the McDonald Laurier Institute. In the event of an attack on the Qatari base, he said that it would be against Qatar to retaliate against its sovereignty violations.
He compared the current Iranian reaction in 2020 even after the United States killed Qasim Sulaimani, the commander of the Iranian revolutionary guard, who did not even increase the conflict.
However, he noted-which has long been tense with Iran-it also has a military base in Qatar, and “this is not a completely left-wing question” if the base was attacked, he could request Article 5 itself.
According to a statement from NATO governments and a prepared text summit seen by Reuters: “We confirm our lining commitment to collective defense in Article 5 of the Washington Treaty – that an attack on someone is an attack on all.”
How can Iran affect the summit?
Experts agreed that the big question is whether the summit can be kept together with the evolution of the Middle East conflict.
Talking to reporters on Monday, NATO Secretary General Mark Rod looked at questions about Iran, saying the dispute was outside the NATO area and was not included in the main topics of the summit.
However, he said the US strikes were not violating international law – which contradicts the statements of NATO leaders' French and Norwegian leaders – and Iran should never prepare nuclear weapons.
“The allies have repeatedly called on Iran to fulfill their responsibilities under the non -proliferation agreement,” he said.
“This summit is about the Euro Atlantic region, ensuring that we can defend ourselves against the Russians-really fast to the Russians.”
According to Reuters, the Summit's brief statement will include only one reference to Russia as a threat to Euro Atlantic Security and the other to support Ukraine's allies to support Ukraine.
NATO has called on Iran to support the Russian war in Ukraine, including the supply of drones to the Russian army.
The Iranian Foreign Minister on Monday met with Russian President Vladimir Putin, who offered to hold talks for a ceasefire between Iran and Israel.
It is expected that the fundamental success of the NATO summit will be a formal agreement between all allies to bound the new target of defense spending.
Under the new plan, countries will spend 3.5 % of GDP on “primary defense”-such as weapons, soldiers and security-related investments, such as the use of military vehicles, the adoption of roads, ports and bridges, safety of pipelines and preventing cyberrtex.
This increase, step -by -step, will mean that hundreds of billion dollars will be spent on defense.
Prime Minister Mark Carney has said that Canada will meet the former Alliance's former, decade -old GDP by the end of this financial year, which will have a new investment of $ 9 billion.
The new speeding between the ongoing security and trade talks with the United States was announced
Trump has called on NATO allies to increase defense spending by five percent and criticize members who did not meet the old target. He called Canada “low pay -makers” and “just the lowest” in the comments on Friday.
This week's summit is being seen as a victory for Trump, and experts say he wants to attend Brussels to remind the spending high commitment.
Leoparthat said the US attacks on Iran have sent a strong message to NATO as much as they did to Russia, China and the Middle East.
“Israel (in Iran) had to do dirty work … so that Americans could fly, drop bombs and leave,” he said. “This is the message that is for the Europeans: you have to do (and) and do dirty work in relation to development.
“This is also a message for Putin and Xi Jinping, though, when American interests are at stake and the United States draws red lines, trust Americans to engage.”
– with files of Reuters and Associated Press