Even the crowds of Perma-Buvu of analysts covering Tesla It has been warned of frustrating results in Q1, a view signed by poor shipping to the quarter reported in early April.
But the numbers released after the market around April 22 were numerous, worse than expected.
Vehicle sale decreased 20% in the same period last year to $ 14 billion. Despite the maximum profit of 12 months in its battery and housing storage shop, total revenue rose 9%. The fallen sale made a profit, sending total revenue around 40% to $ 409 million, under a forecast of over $ 600,000,000 by Wall Street, and one sixth of what Tesla earned recently as Q2 of 2023.
When the results are reduced to the problem of “consensus,” it is true that the stock stock in the next days. But Musk made another show victory to save the day. At the meeting he announced that, from May, he will be returning from his role as President Trump using Hawk in Doge, and he will be “dividing the Tesla time more.” The richest man in the world also succeeded in changing the eyes of investors from a new bad number to the rich promise of the future, announcing that the long -awaited version of the Model Y sports car would come later this year, and that Tesla Robotaxis would draw passengers near its Austin town from 2026.
So when the NYSE closing alarm was heard on Thursday, April 24, Tesla's shares jumped 9% from the rate before the Q1 report to $ 260. During the same day and a half, Tesla added $ 67 billion to the market market, increasing its inventory to $ 836 billion.
Surbling: Tesla's shares already seemed to be overwhelmed a lot before this impossible game. Here's the reason.
In the last quarter, Tesla lost money in her 'hard' business
Tesla products are now producing in Austin, Berlin, and Shanghai describing only a small portion of its inventory. And their wealth falls quickly. The remaining – which were more powerful in rejecting the Q1 debate – could be called “Musk Hope Premium.”
Following a bad report, but not close-like-as-Q4, this author introduced a new idea of testing Tesla's recurring revenue, from its current businesses-close to cars and batteries, as well as a small service unit. Arriving there, I removed the one -time benefits as a huge tariff profit in the last quarter of 2023, with a non -profit gain over the $ 600,000,000 writing of his Bitcoin possession in Q4. I also removed revenue from the sale of legal loans to competing car developers, the advantage that Musk himself says will prove the ephemeral, though how it goes quickly to be unpredictable.
What we will call these “hard” benefits show how much Tesla's biggest market is justified by what is doing now, and how much “musk Hope Premium,” promises of celebrities for a full driving program and cars for Tesla buyers, and robotaxis business. So far, that guarantee has confirmed the scope of decreased constantly.
To get a “hardcore” number, I started with a total revenue of $ 409 million, and provided post -tariff benefits from the sale of legal loans. The result is $ 433 million, with an account of more than 100% of Tesla's total profit. And my inventory, Tesla Lost $ 13 million to repair and sell cars and batteries in Q1. It is the first time that has happened since 2020.
For the last four -quarters, Tesla has written a “hard,” renewed “renewed” of $ 3.5 billion. As such, it now sells in a revised p/e of 240 (a count of $ 836 billion divided by my $ 3.5 billion profits). By the way, at its peak in 2022, “Tesla's hard number” per year was about $ 12 billion, more than three times what was successful in the last 12 months.
Let's give them a car business p/e for 20, twice the average of the world industry, just to be generous. That sets the value of its current and running operations for $ 70 billion. The entire difference of $ 766 billion is essentially a blind vote that Musk will produce revenue growth from here is rarely witnessed in capital records and has never been successful with Tesla's age and size player.
If you want to return 10% from here, Tesla's stock price will need to double from $ 260 to $ 520 in seven years. In fact, the musk machine almost arrived there a few months back. But the future seems to be much more now than it was in the title days following Trump's election. Marking means that the Tesla market market should also double, up to $ 1.6 trillion. In A, once again, a generous prediction of 30 p/e, the total revenue required is more than $ 50 billion. Vehicles will not do so. Tesla would need to get half of what Apple It produces now on products that have not continued from drawing boards and prototypes to the display.
Looks like musk once again is the mind of fog investors
The release of the Tesla Q1 media blamed the poor performance on “uncertainty in the automotive and energy markets (which) continues to increase as an emerging business policy quickly affects the world's distribution chain and the cost structure of Tesla and his colleagues.” In other words, Tesla blames the Musk boss in the White White House.
In the music of the movies A music man, The clever businessman Harold Hill attracted the beautiful people of the city in the city of the mythical river to pay for the loads of trombones and the definitions that were always about to arrive. The Hill word emphasized the vision of the accompanying band that harassed its viewers. The music man has nothing on Elon Musk.
This story was previously shown Bahati.com
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