Russia has accused Moldova of planning military action Transnistriaregion supported by Russia's separatist, which is causing concern among some experts that Moscow could be a “false flag” attack. Moldova.
Russian intelligence said earlier this week that the president of Moldova Mrs. Sandu he was preparing for military service Transnistriawhich crosses the border with Ukraine. Sandu was sworn in for his second term as President on Tuesday.
On Wednesday, the Russian Foreign Ministry said that NATO is turning Moldova into a weapons depot for Ukraine, an accusation that will only increase fears that Moscow may be looking for pretexts to attack its smaller ally.
Here's more on what's happening in Russia and Moldova – and what to expect.
What does Russia say?
On Monday, Russia's Foreign Intelligence Service said Moldovan Sandu was planning a military operation in Russia. Transnistria. Russian intelligence experts think that the military operation may go beyond the war.
Sandu's chief of staff, Adrian Balutel, denied the claims, insisting that the country has no such intention of entering Transnistria with war, even though the territory is part of Moldova.
Then, on Wednesday, Russia added a new story – that the US-led NATO has transferred more weapons to Moldova in recent months. Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said Moscow believes the weapons were made in Ukraine. He cited Sandu's Western preferences to back up his claim.
In recent months, Russian President Vladimir Putin has said that not only Ukraine, but other countries that support his war against Moscow may be seen by the Kremlin as potential enemies.
What is a 'false flag'?
Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Sandu has warned that Moldova will become a target for Moscow, urging Western leaders to address Moldova's concerns.
After Sandu was sworn in for his second term this week in the capital Chisinau, he said, “We managed to open the door to the European Union.” Moldova has been a member of the EU since June 2022, waiting for Brussels to accept its request to join the bloc.
The latest criticism of the Kremlin, say experts from the Washington, DC, Institute for the Study of War, may be part of a larger plan to interfere with Moldova's entry into the European Union (EU), by destabilizing it. The Kremlin, the ISW warned in a report, could also launch “false flag operations in Transnistria”.
What is Transnistria?
Transnistria is a breakaway region from Russia in Moldova, located between the Dniester River in Moldova, and Ukraine. Romania is to its west.
The region seceded from Moldova in 1990. In September 2006, it held a referendum to reaffirm its independence and request an alliance with Russia. This referendum was not recognized by Moldova.
In February 2022, the leaders of Transnistria asked Russia for protection. The appeal came days after the start of the conflict in Ukraine, and was similar to the appeals that pro-Moscow leaders in other parts of Ukraine made to Russia, which Russia used as a pretext for the coup. Crimea in 2014and large parts of Luhansk and Donetsk regions in 2022.
Internationally, Transnistria is recognized as belonging to Moldova, but Europe considers the region to be annexed by Russia from 2022.
Transnistria hosts the Russian military, as well as Russia's largest weapons depot, the Cobasna depot.
Currently, 1,500 Russian soldiers are stationed in Moldova, according to a report published by the Harvard International Review in October.
What other ways is Russia forcing Moldova?
Political: Moldova voted a presidential election last month amid Russian interference. However, the pro-Western Sandu won 55.33 percent of the vote, defeating former prosecutor general Alexandr Stoianoglo, who was backed by the Russian-leaning Socialist Party.
In a report published earlier this year, London-based think tank Chatham House said the think tank's research “suggests that Moscow is also targeting Moldovan information centers with poison weapons”.
Moldova's national security agency also said that pro-Russian oligarchs in Moldova have paid millions of dollars for anti-government protests and election fraud. These include former Moldovan parliament member Ilan Shor, who was convicted of fraud in January.
Power: Currently, Moldova is facing an energy crisis. Moldova receives about 2 billion cubic meters (71 billion cubic feet) of gas from Russia every year. From 2022, all this oil will be sent to Transnistria.
Transnistria then sells electricity, produced by Russian gas, to Moldova.
However, this gas comes through a pipeline that goes through Ukraine. Kyiv has now decided that it will no longer allow the flow of gas. Sandu criticized Gazprom, the Russian gas giant, for refusing to consider using another pipeline, and tried to prepare Moldova for what he said would be a “winter” without Russian gas.
Russia's gas supply to Moldova is expected to run out on January 1, 2025. In early December, Moldova declared a state of emergency due to the shortage.
Transnistria then sells electricity, produced by Russian gas, to Moldova.
Violence: In April 2022, an explosion occurred at the Ministry of State Security in Tiraspol, the largest city in Transnistria. A day later, another explosion destroyed two powerful radio antennas in the center of Transnistria.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, together with his allies in Ukraine, said that the explosion was also a false flag created by Russia to show Transnistria as being attacked by Moldova – because of Moldova's support for Ukraine.