Justin Trudeau's resignation announcement on Monday was the last card played by Canada's deeply unpopular prime minister, who has set his party on course for defeat in the national election.
The political levers he is pulling will give Mr. Trudeau's Liberal Party a chance to reinvent itself. But they will also leave Canada weakened as it prepares for President-elect Donald J. Trump, who has threatened the country with tariffs that could collapse its economy.
It appears to be a gamble Mr. Trudeau is willing to take.
Mr. Trudeau suspended parliament until March 24 to allow thousands of members of his party to choose his successor, a lengthy process that will involve campaigning. A general election is expected to be held after that.
Holding party leadership elections before a general election is par for the course in countries with parliamentary systems like Canada. Suspending Parliament to hold such an election is rare. In doing so, Mr. Trudeau averts the likely collapse of a minority government and gives the Liberals time to choose a leader unencumbered by his dismal poll numbers.
But it means that in two weeks, when Mr. Trump returns to the Oval Office, Mr. Trudeau will lead Canada like a lame duck, weakening the country's hand in crucial negotiations with his closest ally.
“The prime minister's resignation means it will be difficult for him to carry any meaningful mandate in negotiations with the United States, and it does not indicate any unity within Canada,” said Xavier Delgado, senior program fellow at the Canada Institute. Wilson Center, a foreign policy research institute in Washington, DC. “It's not a good time for Canada to be in this situation.”
Mr. Trudeau's opponents wanted a snap general election that would allow a new government with a new mandate (likely to be led by Pierre Poilievre, whose Conservative Party is leading in the polls) — leading Canada's response to Mr. Trump as soon as possible.
Mr. Trump has threatened to impose punitive tariffs on Canadian goods that could plunge the country's economy into recession and upend the decades-old North American trade pact. (It could also hurt the U.S. economy; the two countries are each other's largest trading partner.)
The president-elect insisted that Canada be part of the United States, calling it the “51st state.” He repeated his threatening joke on social media on Monday after Mr Trudeau's resignation: “A lot of people in Canada love being the 51st state,” Mr Trump said on the Truth Social page, promising Canada “no tariffs if it joins”. USA”
First the party
When Mr. Trudeau became leader of the Liberals, the party was in shambles. In the national elections of 2011, for the first time in its history, it took the third place. Mr. Trudeau, who took office in 2013, is widely credited with resurrecting it from the dead and leading the government again two years later.
“The Liberal Party, for example, has been the party of Justin Trudeau for over a decade,” said Shachi Kurl, president of the Angus Reid Institute, a think tank. Ms. Kurl said that made it harder for the party to let her go and for Mr. Trudeau to relinquish control.
But finally on Monday morning, after weeks of pressure from within the party to resign, Mr. Trudeau admitted his time was up.
“I really feel that removing the controversy surrounding my continued leadership is an opportunity to turn the temperature down,” he told reporters gathered in the freezing cold outside his Ottawa residence.
“It became clear to me in the infighting that I would not be able to carry the Liberal standard into the next election,” he said. Until the Liberals elect a new leader, Mr. Trudeau said he will remain in that position and as prime minister.
The internal election process of the party will last for several weeks a handful of hopefuls Re-presenting themselves to the public as individuals no longer associated with Trudeau, but fighting for the leadership of the party and the country.
“I think the Liberals are now clinging to the idea that there is no longer a way forward for him, but there is absolutely a way forward for someone else,” Ms Kurl said.
Still, with the Conservatives leading the Liberals by 25 percentage points in recent polls, the path Mr. Trudeau bequeaths to his successor is likely to be treacherous.
Ms Kurl said: “Sixty or 90 days is not a long time to reinvent a party after 10 years in power. “How many more rabbits are there in the hat? How many more turns are there?”
Short relief
For many Canadians, Mr. Trudeau's departure was a necessary condition if they were to consider voting for the Liberals.
David Coletto, who heads polling company Abacus Data, said Monday that an initial survey showed Canadians were relieved by the news of Mr. Trudeau's resignation, and that his departure has the potential to distract from his unpopularity.
“People are saying they feel relieved and optimistic about the prime minister's resignation,” he said. “This is a signal to me that the Liberals have a chance to restore relations with Canadians.” But it is not certain that this will happen, he warned.
While Mr. Trudeau's departure can only improve the situation for liberals, analysts say he will not benefit from the country being virtually leaderless with Mr. Trump in office.
Canada will try to determine who is in charge as Mr. Trump begins to push his agenda on border security, Canada's military spending and a new president who has complained about Canada's trade imbalance.
Mr. Delgado of the Wilson Center's Canada Institute said: “If Canada could unite around its leader's message in relation to the United States, it could be applied to any country.”
Others were less concerned, thinking Canada's relationship with the Trump administration would be a long game.
Gerald Butts, Mr. Trudeau's former top adviser and now vice president of the Eurasia Group consulting firm, said no leader would be able to cut a deal with Mr. Trump on day one.
“Nothing irreparably bad will happen in the next three months,” Mr Butts said. “We will have Trump for four years; the next three months won't be the whole story.”