Leaders designed for Munich Security Conference as a worldwide order of harassment

Vice President of the United States, JD Vance, the President of Ukraine Zelenski and up to 60 other world leaders and leaders, must shrink in Munich over the next three days for the Munich Annual Security Conference (MSC).

For nearly two decades, I have been present and reflected this event for the BBC and I cannot think of a year when there was so much bet on global security. A senior and experienced Western officer said that this week, “this is the most dangerous and contested time I have ever known in my career.”

Why?

To put it simply, the current World Security Order-the called international order, based on the rules-is in danger of disintegration. Some would argue that this is already happening.

When President Putin launched his full-scale invasion of Ukraine three years ago, he was widely condemned by many men and not all of the world. NATO, the EU and the West as a whole have reached an exceptional level of unity to gather to help Ukraine defend itself without being attracted to direct conflict with Russia.

By preventing some decontamination from Slovakia and Hungary, there was a common consensus that Putin's invasion should be seen that he failed or NATO himself would be critically weakened, while in the end Russia would be tempted to invade another neighboring country, like Estonia. It was often said that Ukraine should be given everything that is needed and as long as it is necessary to ensure lasting peace from a position of power.

No more.

President Trump effectively removed the carpet from Ukraine's negotiations by retreating through his Defense Minister Pete Heget that the restoration of Ukraine's territory to where it was before the first Russian invasion was simply “not realistic”.

The United States also hoped for Kiev's hopes to join NATO, a key ambition of President Zelenski, and excluded the sending of US troops to help protect its borders from the next time Russia decides to invade.

An even greater shock came with the news that President Trump had an apparently cordial 90-minute phone call with President Putin, thus abruptly terminating the three-year freezing of the West in conversation with the Russian leader, which has existed since the invasion.

Over the next 72 hours, we will hear in Munich from President Trump's team here in Munich what the details of their plan for Ukraine will be. Some of them still need to be developed after his envoy, retired by the US Army General Keith Kellog, traveling to Kiev next week.

But for now, NATO's unity is poorly suffocated, as there is a big difference in the opinions about Ukraine between Washington and Europe. One wants the war to end as quickly as possible, even if it means to admit to many of Moscow's demands.

The other still believed, at least this week that with Russia he was losing about a thousand battlefields a day and his economy faced heavy long-term problems the best way to win lasting peace would be to keep pressure on Moscow until it was the case His army was exhausted and she agreed with the peaceful conditions, more favorable to Ukraine.

This will not happen now.

For NATO Alliance, now at the age of 76, other alarming cracks are beginning to appear, which will also enter the Munich Security Conference here.

Last month, President Trump announced that he wanted to “buy” Greenland, an autonomous part of the Kingdom of Denmark. When Denmark Prime Minister Frederixon assured his population that Greenland is not selling, followed by what is called a “horrible” phone call from Donald Trump, who has not excluded the use of Greenland's take.

The idea of ​​a NATO country threatening to seize part of NATO's territory, it would be unthinkable so far. In the case of Greenland, there is no excuse for security territories, as there are more US troops in Greenland than Danish and Copenhagen is happy to agree to ways to strengthen the mutual defense of the island.

But even if nothing is obtained from this idea, and the greater part of Scandinavia is dearly hoping that this is the case, in some respects the damage has already been inflicted. The message came out of the free world leader that it is good to threaten its neighbors by force if you want their territory.

“It may be,” says Lord Kim Daroch, the former UK national security adviser and the British Ambassador to Washington, “that Trump's threat of economic measures against NATO ally Denmark and his refusal to rule out hostilities against them, just negotiate tactics.

Washington's European allies will seek some reassurance here in Munich that this is not the case. But President Trump is already about to redeside the role of America in the world and the indications are that it is unlikely to listen to any complaints coming from Europe.