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The author is an assistant editor of the FT, chair of the Center for Liberal Strategies, Sofia, and fellow at the IWM Vienna.
In an old joke, two fortune tellers meet and after the obligatory few minutes of respectful silence one says to the other, “When I look into the future, I see that you will be fine.” But what about me?”
I was reminded of this story when, at a recent public speech in Vienna, a member of the audience asked me if, at this point, a free-minded European could be optimistic about the future of Europe.
The questioner had a point. After the victory of Donald Trump in the US presidential elections, and the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, the fight against the stagnant economy and the disruption due to the fear of immigration, Europeans have begun to resemble Chance, the character of the film by Hal Ashby. Being There.
In a role played by the late Peter Sellers, Chance lives in a safe haven, overlooking the mansion's garden and watching television.
When he is finally banished and forced to face the real world, he is soon attacked by a knife-wielding thug. The only response he can make is to take the television remote control out of his pocket and try to change the channel. The opportunity survives. The future of the EU, however, should not be taken for granted.
In recent years, Europe he has been busy trying to protect the status quo that actually ended a long time ago, speaking a language that is no longer understood. It has wasted energy and money in efforts to restore a world that will never return.
European democracies are now on the verge of a mental breakdown. They are threatened simultaneously by voter anger and heightened fear. The electorate dreams of punishing those at the top, while the establishment wishes to appease the electorate.
The recent decision of Romania's Constitutional Court to nullify the results of the first round of the presidential election due to alleged foreign interference – but perhaps because the ruling parties did not like the results – shows that elite terror can be more dangerous than that. voter anger. Meanwhile, governments' efforts to consolidate national unity despite external threats are failing to persuade people to rally around the flag.
The only way for Europeans with a free mind to overcome their despair is to try to understand how and why they were betrayed by their high hopes at the end of the cold war. Until they realize how lost this “history” of victory was, they will continue to suffer from the deterioration of things.
In retrospect, 1989 no longer seems like a great day for freedom. It was a year of great promise for radical Islam. That year, the Islamic insurgency (Afghanistan) defeated a superpower (USSR) for the first time. The withdrawal of Soviet troops from Afghanistan turned out to be a revolution – not only for Muslims but also for ordinary Russians.
When, in 2019, the independent Levada Center asked Russians what defined 1989 for them, most pointed to the slow Soviet withdrawal rather than, say, the first free elections in Poland in more than 40 years or the fall of the Berlin Wall. It is not the end of communism but Moscow's loss of its great power mystique that has shaped Russian memories of 1989.
In today's context, the strength of the Communist regime in China is a more important historical landmark than the failure of communism in Europe. Moreover, the rise of so-called middle powers such as India, Turkey and Brazil are increasingly important forces in shaping the new. politically landscape than the oft-cited rivalry between the US and China.
Likewise, technology and demography – our relationship with artificial intelligence and the fear of decline and aging of the population – will then become the decisive factors shaping national politics rather than the struggle of ideas between democracies and autocracies.
It may appear that the most important thing that happened in 1989 was the departure of 17-year-old Elon Musk to his native South Africa. His experiences as a young white man during the last years of apartheid clearly helped shape his political outlook. Musk's promotion of the violence of everyday life in South Africa in the 1980s is echoed by Trump's vision of a dystopian modern America. What other way is there but to find a way to Mars?
Dancing to dynamic music may tire a free-spirited European, but it can also be liberating. When, decades from now, people look back to 2024, it's entirely possible that a Trump victory or the rise of authoritarianism around the world will appear to have the same effect as they do now. The lesson Europeans should take is that history never marries anyone – it never marries and takes many lovers. So there is no need to be afraid.