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Your guide to what the 2024 US election means for Washington and the world
Even the anti-Donald Trump graffiti on the streets of West Hollywood is rare and half-hearted now. Eight years ago, California was a place of “resistance”. It is a different situation that the visitor encounters in 2025: resignation from work, boredom with the issue, the attitude that we had among the thinking Democrats and, at times, something that comes close to curiosity about the economic viability of America under a president who quits.
The great freedom movement continues. It's been happening all over the world since Trump won his victory in November, and it's natural. You can't be angry all the time. In the autocracies of 20th century Europe, people with conflicting consciences often engaged in what was known as “internal migration”. That is, rather than fleeing or fighting, they retreated into private life as the political landscape darkened around them. Breaking like this is wisdom, not weakness.
Just don't overdo it, that's all. I understand that liberals have allowed a healthy acceptance of the reality of the election to fall into the hope that Trump's second term will not be so bad. Please.
Three factors softened Trump's impact last time out. None of them are currently active. First, he wanted re-election. This made him agree to upset the middle voter to some degree, but not far. (The speed with which he repudiated the tepid Project 2025 last summer showed how much this so-called hotshot wants to avoid unwanted unpopularity.) Unless something happens to the 22nd Amendment, Trump is now freed from the inherent discipline of electoral politics. Even the intermediate time means little, as the race to win will begin after that. Second-term presidents have two-year terms.
What else? His first administration had enough old Republicans — Gary Cohn, Rex Tillerson — to prevent his excesses. He is spoiled now for officials and cabinet secretaries in the Maga mold. Tulsi Gabbard may soon be at the helm of US intelligence. There is nothing Stoic or urbane about removing that.
Above all, the world in 2017 was stable enough to absorb a certain amount of chaos. Inflation was low and Europe was at peace. The last major epidemic in the west was a century ago. It is in a very fragile web that Trump will throw his prices and run to other countries this time.
We can go on like this, citing valid and possible reasons for concern. We can mention the federal judiciary, which is more focused on Trump now than it was when he first took office. Will it force him? We can also mention that he will be 82 years old when he dies. For the last time, he had to think about the legal exposure, power and social prestige he would have in his post-presidential life. Will that be the case now?
In the end, however, my argument – and much of the political commentary – comes down to instinct. There's a hubris in the Maga-world now that wasn't there in 2017, in part because Trump didn't win the popular vote. The talk of high economic growth, the conquest of the earth, placing the US flag on Mars: if this does not show pride to you before the fall, further reach, then we have different antennas. (And I hope mine is wrong.) In all democracies, a party can never be more dangerous than when it is riding high on new electoral success. The difference with the US is the size of the foreign countries. Think of George W Bush after his historic best in 2002, or Lyndon Johnson's rise in Vietnam after 1964, when his vote pile could be seen from space.
Yes, the war of choice is impossible under Trump. (Though events may drive leaders to invisible actions. Remember, Bush's view before September 11 was passive isolationist.) Most likely, the tariff spree will set off an uncontrolled global response, or the economy will be driven. too hot, or the constitution will creak to the point of breaking as Trump wants to reward friends and hound enemies. At the very least, there will be internal criticism when it becomes clear that public debt, urban squalor and other American issues cannot be fixed by a techno-libertarian fix.
Whatever the exact nature of the coming chaos, not worrying about it is different from eight years ago. The line for freedom in 2025 seems to go like this: we passed the fear about Trump last time, let's not repeat the mistake. Not one half of this proposition survives a little intellectual audit. Fear it was except that two charges – that of seeking to overturn the election result – are somehow not counted. Also, even if the first quarter wasn't that bad, why do you think the second will be the same? Trump and his movement are very important things right now. His inaugural speech this week was powerful in perspective and expression.
None of this means that people who don't like Trump should take this man's advice to “fight, fight, fight”. Protests and activism have become the ends of democracy. But if pride was bad, so is self-doubt. The lesson of the 2024 election for liberals, or should be, is small: stop choosing useless candidates. This somehow grew into a broader crisis of confidence about whether their basic assessment of Trump as a threat was always correct. Forgiveness in the coming years will not be pleasant at all.