Devastating wildfires continued to burn across the Los Angeles metropolitan area on Friday, prompting mandatory evacuations and school closures across the region. Next week promises little chance of relief; Conditions will remain favorable for both the growth of existing wildfires and new outbreaks, as gusty winds persist amid unusually dry conditions.
Officials reported five major fires throughout the Los Angeles area on Friday morning. the Palisades fire in Pacific Palisades and Malibu consumed more than 20,000 acres, while Eaton Fire in Altadena has grown to more than 10,000 acres. At least 10,000 structures are said to have been destroyed across Los Angeles and 10 people have died.
Favorable fire weather requires dry vegetation, low humidity and strong winds. The combination of these ingredients makes fires easy to break out and spread quickly; It was this dangerous combination that allowed the Palisades Fire and the Eaton Fire to expand beyond any crew's ability to control earlier in the week.
The fire department then found a way begin fire controlBacked by reinforcements from out of state, the water in the hydrants is running additionaland wind speed decreases. (In addition to helping the fire spread quickly, Seasonally high Santa Ana winds early in the week have at times prevented firefighting aircraft from working to control fires with water and fire-retardant chemicals.) The bad news is that those winds may now be about to pick up again — and on all other fronts. , conditions are unlikely to favor firefighters any time soon.
What happens next with the weather?
the Storm forecast centeragency of the National Weather Service tasked with issuing fire weather forecasts, says fire danger will remain elevated across Los Angeles through this weekend.
We could see two rounds of milder Santa Ana winds in the coming days—one early Sunday and another possible Tuesday. These wind gusts could encourage the spread of existing fires and spark additional fires.
A Santa Ana wind event occurs when there is a pressure differential between the Great Basin — the vast expanse of land in Nevada and Utah — and the coastal communities surrounding Los Angeles.
Meteorologists often use the air pressure difference between Las Vegas and Los Angeles to predict these winds. Stronger pressure differentials create stronger winds that blow toward the coast, creating conditions for existing wildfires. Here's what they predict we may see again in the coming days.
Vegetation will also continue to be exceptionally dry across the region. It's the middle of the rainy season in southern California—but there's no rain anywhere. After seeing the third wettest February on record last year, Los Angeles International Airport reported just 0.03 inches of rain since the beginning of last summer.
Although mid-January is the peak for rainy season in Los Angeles, there is little hope of any meaningful rain in the next week and a half. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center announced Thursday that we have officially entered La Niña, a pattern of colder-than-normal water temperatures in the Pacific Ocean around the equator. Changes in the atmosphere in response to La Niña could force the jet stream northward over the Eastern Pacific, redirecting storms onto Canada's West Coast instead of the western United States, causing states to lack of rain like California.
As expected, the Pacific-dominant storm track will remain near the Gulf of Alaska through mid-January, creating little opportunity for rain to move as far south as Southern California.
Forecasters expect a weak La Niña to last through winter, with a fair chance that the pattern will fade by spring. Unfortunately, this may coincide with the start of the dry season in Southern California.
That doesn't mean we might not see a chance of rain in the coming months. However, little or no rain lasting at least until mid-January will leave vegetation across the region especially dry. The continued risk of new fires and fire growth will depend on periods of low humidity accompanied by gusty winds—and any additional Santa Ana winds could be dangerous during these periods. next week.