Crossings from Mexico to the US have dropped sharply since last year. But countries south of the US border are nervously waiting to see if President-elect Donald J. Trump will order mass deportations.
The prospect of deporting millions of undocumented immigrants — in what would be the largest deportation program in American history — has sent shock waves across Latin America and created confusion among migrants and asylum seekers.
“We see dark times coming for the migrant community,” said Irineo Mujica, Mexico director of People Without Borders, a transnational advocacy group. “Anyone captured by the Trump administration will now be eaten, chewed up and spat out.”
What is the situation at the US-Mexico border?
Mr Trump said Mexico was allowing migrants to “invade” the US. But the current situation on the ground tells a different story.
Illegal crossings at the US-Mexico border it has started to decrease since JuneWhen President Biden signed the order essentially blocking undocumented migrants from seeking asylum at the border.
That month, US Border Patrol officials recorded 130,415 apprehensions of migrants, a sharp drop from the 170,710 recorded the previous month. These were the numbers in November further down: US officials listed 94,190 people.
This is a drastic change from a year ago. For November 2023, the number of illegal crossings exceeded 242,300, a record at the time.
How did the US and Mexico reduce crossings?
Critics, who argue that asylum is a legal and basic human right, say Mr. Biden's move is a short-term solution to a complex problem.
As part of Mr Biden's order, the restrictions are to be lifted when the number of people trying to cross illegally every day falls below 1,500 in a week. This did not happen. But there is drastically reduced border crossings and allowed officials to deport those who could not prove they would be in danger if they returned to their home countries.
Mexico has also cracked down on people going to the US border.
There is this placed National Guard troops to immigration checkpoints from north to south. Recently, the authorities transported migrants by bus further south To Mexico – what officials and scientists call a migration party. They were prevented takes trains heading north and broke up the convoys that had already reached the US border.
Mexico in 2023 stopped issuing humanitarian cards This allowed asylum seekers to study, work and access basic services in Mexico. Underneath by law, they must remain in the country where they applied for asylum. But many use the cards to get north without being stopped, officials say.
Mexican security forces between October 1 and December 26, 2024 as a result of the shutdown he saidthey detained more than 475,000 migrants, which is about 68 percent more than during the same period in 2023. government data to show
What is the status of migrants waiting in Mexico?
As Mexico's strategy has changed, many migrants have been stranded.
“By not giving them a card, they will no longer be able to access public services or enter the legal market,” said Andrés Ramirez Silva, who until September headed the country's Refugee Assistance Commission.
The situation is unstable. advocacy groups warn. More migrants have become easy prey for organized crime groups who extort them.
“Many people continue to come to Mexico,” said Mauro Pérez Bravo, former president of the citizens' council of the National Migration Institute. But they live in “vulnerable conditions,” he added, working low-wage jobs or sleeping in shelters, dumps, construction sites or on the street.
How is Mexico preparing for mass deportations?
Mexico's border states are working in coordination with the federal government to establish shelters to provide food and health services.
They make transportation arrangements for Mexicans who want to return to their state. In Tijuana, a border city south of San Diego, city officials are coordinating with churches, bus companies and humanitarian groups to prepare for the arrivals, said Jose Luis Perez Canchola, director of the city's office of migration services.
He worries that mass deportations from the United States could further strain Tijuana's resources for migrants, noting that many are unaccompanied minors or in need of medical care.
Maria Eugenia Campos, the governor of Chihuahua state, which shares a wide border with Texas and New Mexico, said making sure people don't stay too long in Mexican border cities like Ciudad Juarez is a top priority.
“The state of Chihuahua cannot become a sanctuary state for migrants and deportees,” he said.
Until this month, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said the country would not accept foreign deportees. On Friday, he indicated otherwise.
“We will ask the United States that as many non-Mexico migrants as possible can be sent to their countries of origin, or we can cooperate with different mechanisms,” he said. his government had a “plan” without providing details.
Have the factors causing migration changed?
Not really.
About 392,000 Mexicans were displaced by conflict and violence in 2023, according to the Internal Displacement Monitoring Center, which collects federal government data. That was it the highest since the beginning of the record In 2009.
The situation in Central America is somewhat similar. In some countries, criminal gangs and drug cartels have caused many to flee.
By the end of 2022, more than 240,000 people are internally displaced by security in Honduras. final report by the International Organization for Migration.
The factors that oppress people in Guatemala – inequality, poverty, climate change, economic instability and violence – have not improved much despite the election of a new president, Bernardo Arévalo. an anti-corruption crusadersaid Aracely Martínez, a migration researcher at the Universidad del Valle in Guatemala City.
“We have a new government whose campaign is proposing fundamental changes, but we are still not seeing immediate results,” he said.
Still, the number of Guatemalans registered at the US-Mexico border fell from more than 20,000 in January 2024, when Mr. Arévalo took office, to about 8,000 in November, US Border Patrol data show.
What is the situation elsewhere?
Faced with tough US sanctions, Venezuela and Cuba are likely to refuse deportation flights.
Honduras, Guatemala and El Salvador signed asylum deals with the first Trump administration to allow asylum seekers, mostly from Latin America, to the three countries before applying to the United States, but the policy has not been implemented in Honduras. and El Salvador.
The the most concrete impulse Mr Trump's mass deportation pledge was countered by Honduran President Xiomara Castro, who said this month that US military bases would “lose all reason to exist” in the country if he follows through on his pledge.
Government in Guatemala he denied as are the officials' “fake” news is open to receiving deported aliens.
In December, Panama reported that 4,849 people had crossed into the dangerous Darien Gate – a jungle area. a popular migrant route — the lowest numbers in more than two years. Some experts see This as a probable sign of migrants delays his plans since Mr. Trump's election, as well as Panama's containment efforts undocumented migration takes effect.
“We can't claim victory, but this is what the numbers say right now – we're stopping the flow of migrants,” Panamanian Foreign Minister Xavier Martínez Acha said in an interview.
In El Salvador, Mr. Trump may find an ally in President Nayib Bukele, who is close to members of the president-elect's inner circle.
The Bukele administration has not publicly announced the mass deportations. “We can't get ahead of ourselves,” said an operator at one of the call centers El Salvador has set up to inform Salvadorans in the United States, when asked about special preparations for the mass deportation.
Jody Garcia Contributed to the report from Guatemala City, Gabriel Labrador from San Salvador and Mary Trini Zea From Panama City.