modern (MRNA) cut its 2025 forecast by $1 billion on Monday, indicating weak demand about its newest vaccine as well as slow sales for its COVID-19 vaccine.
The company now expects between $1.5 and $2 billion in revenue for 2025. Moderna's stock slid more than 20% in early trading Monday on the news, at $33.05 a share — a fraction of its COVID highs of nearly $450 per share in 2021.
CEO Stéphane Bancel revealed the forecast at JPMorgan's annual healthcare conference in San Francisco and noted that the company will engage in further cost-cutting strategies as it did in 2024.
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“In 2024, we achieved $3 billion to 3.1 billion in product sales, approved our RSV vaccine and continued to adapt our COVID-19 business for the endemic setting. At the same time, we reduced our cash operating cost by over 25% compared to 2023 and aim to reduce 2025 cash costs by $1 billion with a plan for additional cost savings of $500 million in 2026,” Bancel said in a statement.
The 2024 winter virus season has seen slower demand for respiratory vaccine, including for COVID and RSV (respiratory syncytial virus) – which mainly affects children and elderly adults. Moderna launched its RSV vaccine last year, following earlier vaccines approved by Pfizer (PFE) and GSK (GSK).
Bluegreen' (WBA) earnings results for the 2024 financial year last week as well a sign of a slowdown in vaccine demand that could also hit other vaccine makers during the upcoming earnings cycle. The retail pharmacy giant reported fewer than 1 million sales of COVID vaccines in fiscal 2024, compared to 4.7 million in the previous year.
Analysts warn that there could be more pain ahead for the once-prosperous biotech.
Leerink Partners analyst, Mani Foroohar, noted that in addition to the sales guidance, two other products in the pipeline by the company do not look strong for the near term.
“We are not surprised to see the stock down over 20% given (1) reduced FY24 sales guidance, (2) lack of clarity on the COVID/flu combo, and (3) lack of interim CMV effectiveness. All represent headwinds to growth prospects in 2025 – with CMV the single most at-risk line item of the three – putting the risk of future diluted equity issuance on the table as a return to profitability looks increasingly remote, and MRNA's position in the S&P500 is increasingly thin,” Foroohar wrote to clients on Monday.
Anjalee Khemlani is the senior health reporter at Yahoo Finance, covering all things pharma, insurance, care services, digital health, PBMs, and health policy and politics. That includes GLP-1s, of course. Follow Anjalee on social media platforms X (Twitter), LinkedIn Bluesky @AnjKhem.