Moldova is facing an energy crisis as the flow of Russian gas stops

On New Year's Day, Russian gas stopped flowing through Ukraine.

Kiev calls it a “historic” day as its refusal to extend a transit agreement with Russia's Gazprom halted the reverse flow of money to finance the full-scale invasion of Ukraine

But in neighboring Moldova, the move threatens to spark a crisis.

In Transnistria, a separatist region of eastern Moldova loyal to Moscow, the year began with heating only for hospitals and critical infrastructure, but not for homes.

“The hot water was on until about 2am, I checked. Now it's off and the radiators are barely warm,” Dmitry told the BBC by phone from his flat in the enclave.

“We still have gas, but the pressure is very low – just what's left in the pipes.”

“It's the same everywhere.”

Transnistria broke away from the rest of Moldova in a brief war when the Soviet Union collapsed. It still has Russian troops on its territory and an economy that depends entirely on Russian gas, for which the authorities in Tiraspol pay nothing.

“They just have a file where it says how much the debt is each month,” explains Jakub Pienkowski of the Polish Institute of International Affairs, PSIM. “But Russia has no interest in asking for this money.

Suddenly, this lifeline through Ukraine was cut off.

In some cities of Transnistria, the authorities set up “heating points” and there are hotlines to help find firewood. Families were advised to huddle in a warm room and seal cracks in windows and doors with blankets.

New Year brought sunshine to the enclave, but overnight temperatures are expected to drop below 0C.

“It's cool in the apartment now,” says local resident Dmitry. “And we don't know what kind of frost January will bring.

The electricity is still flowing, for now.

But Transnistria's main power plant in Kurchugan is now powered by coal instead of Russian gas, and authorities say that amount is only enough for 50 days.

This spells trouble for the rest of Moldova, which gets 80% of its electricity from Curcugan.

The government in Chisinau says it has enough gas to heat the country until spring and will switch to buying electricity from Europe, but that means a huge increase in costs.

A state of emergency was imposed last month and businesses and citizens were told to reduce consumption while the country prepared for blackouts.

The sudden stoppage of gas through Ukraine also affects Slovakia and Hungary.

Both have pro-Moscow governments that have been much slower than others in the EU to divest themselves of Russian fuel and stop funding Russia's war. Paying more for alternative supplies will reduce their budgets.

But Moldova is poorer and less stable – a prolonged crisis could have serious economic and political consequences.

That may be what Moscow wants.

Russia can supply its allies in Transnistria via Turkey, albeit at a higher price, which would mean electricity for all of Moldova.

Instead, Gazprom claims it has stopped supplies because Chisinau is almost $700 million in debt. The Moldovan government says an international audit puts the true amount at about $9 million, which has mostly been paid out.

“We treat this not as an energy crisis, but as a security crisis provoked by Russia to destabilize Moldova both economically and socially,” Olga Roska, a foreign policy adviser to Moldova's president, told the BBC.

“This is clearly a shaping operation ahead of the 2025 parliamentary elections to create demand to return pro-Russian forces to power.”

Relations between Moldova and Moscow are strained.

Once part of the USSR, the country began negotiations to join the EU and turned even harder on Russia after its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

President Maya Sandu was re-elected last year despite evidence of a massive campaign against her led by Moscow.

It hasn't stopped.

Prior to her inauguration, Russia's foreign intelligence agency SVR issued a bizarre statement falsely claiming it planned to retake Transnistria by force to restore energy supplies. It described the president as “crazy” and “emotionally unstable.”

Analyst Jakub Pienkovsky agrees that the Kremlin is using Kiev's decision to ban the transit of Russian gas.

“This is a reason to pose some political and social problems in Moldova,” he claimed. “Electricity prices have already gone up about six times in three years and people are angry.

As the humanitarian situation in Transnistria worsens, pressure on Chisinau will increase. But Tiraspol refuses any help, even generators.

“They will create a narrative that Chisinau is freezing Transnistria into submission,” believes Olga Roska.

And even if Tiraspol decides to buy gas from elsewhere, the blow to its economy could be catastrophic.

“The prices here would go up, including for heating and food. But pensions here are small and there are no jobs,” Dmitry from Bendery in the buffer zone at the edge of Transnistria told me.

He says people there are barely “hanging on” to this situation. Now life elsewhere in Moldova will also become more difficult.

“Russia can wait for the elections, and then the parties that are not pro-European will probably win,” predicts Jakub Pienkovski.

“Because Maya Sandu can talk about joining the EU. But what good is that if people don't have money for electricity or gas?'

This is Russia's goal.