An increasing number of passengers are bypassing congested airports and flying direct, as airlines take advantage of new jets to redraw their networks.
Since the dawn of the Jet Age airlines have flown large, fuel-hungry aircraft on the busiest intercontinental routes. These connect to major airports, before passengers transfer to smaller planes to connect across the region.
But advances in aviation technology have put this “hub and spoke” model under pressure.
Airlines can now use small and efficient single-aisle jets, associated with short-haul flights, for long-haul flights, opening up direct routes that would otherwise be uneconomical with larger aircraft.
Passengers flying United Airlines across the Atlantic next summer will be able to take direct flights from the US East Coast to destinations including Bilbao in Spain, Palermo in Italy and Greenland.
“A small, fuel-efficient aircraft like the Boeing 737 Max 8 has enabled new non-stop service to accessible destinations from the US East Coast,” said Patrick Quayle, senior vice president of global network planning and alliances at United Airlines.
“Our portfolio of access to space includes growing interest in various parts of Europe,” he said.
Some senior airline executives said that, while the airport was not yet dead, passengers were eager to pass through major airports, partly because of the disruption that has gripped many congested areas since the pandemic.
“We hear that some passengers avoid the big centers. . . where there have been delays,” said Bogi Nils Bogason, CEO of Icelandair.
Changes have led to changes in the way passengers use major airports over the past decade.
Among people who flew on the world's 10 busiest airlines last year, 55 percent flew direct to their destination, rather than connecting between flights. This was from a close 50-50 in 2015, according to an FT analysis of data from OAG, an aviation analysis company.
The trend is set to get bigger with the arrival of an additional member – the long-range Airbus single-aisle A320 family, which offers a leap in performance. The plane took its first commercial flight in November.
The A321XLR can carry up to 244 passengers and has a maximum range of 4,700 nautical miles (8,700km) or 11 hours of flying time, thanks to the addition of an additional fuel tank in the area that can carry about 12,900 liters of kerosene. This compares to the older A320, which has a maximum range of 3,400 nautical miles.
European low-cost airline Wizz Air plans to use the XLR to connect the UK to Saudi Arabia on all economy flights, while Aer Lingus and Iberia will fly the plane across the Atlantic.
Christian Scherer, head of Airbus' commercial aircraft division, said the arrival of the XLR is “the first time in a long time that a new, innovative aircraft has come to market”.
“So even though it comes out of the 321, the fact that it opens up a whole new (range) of opportunities for that size class of aircraft, that's a big thing,” he told the Financial Times.
The arrival of the XLR “will create new opportunities,” Icelandair's Bogason said. “We can fly to North America on a very fuel efficient plane”.
The airline is considering flights to Texas, California and Dubai from its Reykjavik hub when flights arrive.
“When costs are low, there is no risk to start something new,” he said.
Aviation and airport managers agree that airports will continue to play an important role in the aviation network, as the most efficient way to connect large volumes of people and to place high frequencies of flights on popular routes.
“Our locations will continue to play an important role in our network,” United's Quayle said.
London's Heathrow Airport said in December it was expecting it the busiest holiday seasonand a record number of passengers to pass through during the month.
But even airport managers agree that the world is changing.
“You could say the business model has always been at risk,” said Thomas Woldbye, chief executive of Heathrow, one of the world's busiest airports.
“Are we going to see places that will be less dependent on hubs, not less because of XLR? We certainly will. But there are a large number of people who want to travel, many from areas without major airports. So I don't think the hub is disappearing,” he told an industry conference in November.