Oil's oil increased by more than 2% at the beginning of the first trading session since the US began direct attacks on Iran, casting a shadow on power perspectives in a region rich in oil on oil.
Petroleum On Sunday evening, it increased by USD 1.76, i.e. 2.38%, to USD 75.60 per barrel, while the global reference point Brent It increased by USD 1.80, i.e. 2.34%, to USD 78.81 per barrel. Brent jumped by 5.7%to break 81 USD before softening.
On Saturday, President Donald Trump surprised the markets with the announcement that Washington directly entered the Iran-Israel conflict, starting attacks on three Iranian nuclear places in Ford, Natanz and Isfahan.
Investors now want to see how Iran will react to unprecedented strikes in the USA. The Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran said on Sunday that the Islamic Republic reserves “all options” to defend its sovereignty. According to S&P Global Platts, the initial increase in oil prices can be facilitated if Iran does not react.
Hormuz Strait
According to energy analysts, the worst scenario of the oil market would be an attempt to close the Hormuz Strait. About 20 million barrels a day, or 20% of global consumption, sailed through the strait in 2024, according to Energy information administration.
Iranian state media reported that Iran's parliament supported the closure Straits, citing a senior legislator. However, according to the report, the final decision to close the strait lies in Iran in the National Security Council.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned Iran about trying Close the strait. Rubio said it would be “economic suicide” for the Islamic Republic, because their exports pass through the waterway.
“We keep options to deal with it,” said Rubio Fox News in an interview on Sunday. “This would hurt the economies of other countries much worse than ours. I think it would be a huge escalation that deserves a response not only by us, but from others.”
Iran produced 3.3 million BPD in May, in accordance with the monthly OPEC oil market report published in June, which quotes independent sources of analytics. Last month he exported 1.84 million BPD, and the vast majority sold China, according to the data from kpler.
Rubio called China to use his influence to prevent Tehran from closing the strait. About half of Chinese oil imports come from the Persian Gulf, to Kpler.
“I encourage the Chinese government in Beijing to call them about it, because they largely depend on the Hormuz strait for their oil,” said Rubio.
Investors also observe the chances of further destabilization of the Iranian regime as a result of US-Israeli warfare, taking into account the long-term impact that had on NATO in 2011. Muammara Gaddafi on Libya's deliveries.
Regional tensions
Tensions also increased in the neighboring Iraq, the second largest producer of OPEC, where the pro-tehran militias previously threatened Washington if he directed to the highest leader of Iran, Ayatollah Ali Chamenei.
On Sunday, the Revolutionary Guardian of Iran warned that “American bases in the region are not their strength, but rather their greatest sensitivity” without specifying specific places, in accordance with Comments sent by Google Transferred by the Iranian Fars news agency.
Meanwhile, new Zani, but lively diplomatic ties between former rivals Iran and Saudi Arabia can disperse the possibility of disturbances in the supply of the world's largest raw exporter.
“The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia goes deeply for the development in the Islamic Republic of Iran, in particular the targeting of Iranian nuclear facilities by the United States,” the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Saudi he said on Sunday. Riyadh, a close ally in the Middle East, limited his commitment in Iran-Israel's offensive.
In 2019 – four years before the resumption of diplomatic relations with Iran – the installation of oil installation of oil Saudi Arabia in Abqaiq and Khurais maintained the damage during the attacks that were reported by Houthi, but for which Riyad and the US said Iran had liable. Tehran denied his commitment.
During the resumption of the Israeli-Iranian fire last week, the main Fatih Birol of Energy Agency said that the institution monitors events and that “markets are well delivered today, but we are ready to act if necessary” from 1.2 billion barrels of emergency action in the reserve.