Grandhog's Day arrived on Sunday, February 2 and the Panxsutical Phil, Groundhog's most famous prognostist, saw his shadow, predicting six more weeks of winter. Buo, tell those of us already sick of the cold. But there are several questions about Phil's accuracy. Actually conducting the opposite Sand Mount Sam In Boaz, Alabama predicted early spring this year, when he did not see his shadow. No matter how accurate these animal prognosis is, however?
National Administration for Oceans and Atmosphere Check Record on Punxsutawney Phil's track Last year, she found the predictions of the vague ambassador. This year, NOAA took a deeper diving in the results of the day of Groundhog and Rated work on 19 landscapes and surrogates from groundhog to determine the accuracy of their predictions. Spoiler: Phil came to the 17th.
The underground nibbles on a vegetation in Virginia.
Noaa ranked buttons
NOAA set several basic rules. Groundhogs and “alternative landscapes” must be forecast at least 20 years and must also be active since February 2, 2024. The competitors included 13 groundhogs, three taxiDrmeden ground, one You never saw a creature It is assumed to be a ground floor, a statue of prairies and turtles.
NOAA used data from its national environmental information centers, which maintains an archive of data on the ocean, time and climate. The agency compared the records of the groundhogs paths with the average temperature in the United States from 2005 to 2024.
All the greeting island of Staten, Chuck, a wooden hook at the Staten Island Zoo in Newoufor. Chuck, also known as Charles G. Hogg, at the top of the rank with 85% accuracy. He celebrated the mayor in 2009, when Michael Bloomberg tried to annoy him at the Groundhog Day ceremony.
The next best terrain was General Beuregard Lee of DAZETS POINTS NATURE CENTER In Acksexone, Georgiador with 80% accuracy. Third place belongs to Lander Lil, a bronze statue of a dog from prairies in Lander, Wyoming. Lander Lil entered with an accuracy of 75%. Groundhogs do not live in Wyoming, but prairies dogs do. The principles of forecasting are the same. If Lander Lil “sees” a shade on the day of groundhog, then more winter is expected.
How did Punxsutawney Phil manage
My Max is a desert turtle like the one in the picture here in a picture of national park services.
Overall, 14 on the ground floor had 50% accuracy or better. Poor Punxsutawney Phil managed only 35% accuracy, landing near the bottom of the rankings. At least he is more accurate than Mojave MaxA desert turtle of conserving sources in Nevada, which took the last place with 25% accuracy.
The ranking may not be fair to my Max, though. Toreclation does not parade on the day of groundhog. His predictions are based on when it comes from brumatia (as reptile hibernation). Max becomes somewhere between February and April each year.
“The warmer temperatures, the longer daylight and its inner clock are factors that are known to contribute to its appearance every year”, ” The Clark County Desert Program said. Its appearance marks the unofficial start of spring for South Nevada.
Groundhog's day has been a tradition of Gobler button in Panxsutna, Pennsylvania since the late 1800s and still goes strong. NOAA's debate on Woodchak's weather forecasts does not deter the celebration party. What Phil lacks the accuracy that complements in pure fame, complexity and charisma. So go ahead and cheer for Phil, but you may be based on your spring rodent plans from the island of Staten, rather than Punxsutawney.