President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin shake their hands when they organize a joint press conference after a meeting in Helsinki in Finland, July 16, 2018.
Leonhard Foeger Reuters
Russia escaped unscathed from the commercial tariffs of President Donald Trump unveiled at the beginning of this month, but the Kremlin claims that Moscow is not resistant to economic secondary shocks that could occur in a potential global trading war.
“Of course, instability in the global economy cannot only affect Russia,” said Kremlin press secretary Dmitry Peskov on CNBC on Wednesday on Wednesday.
“At the same time, we manage to maintain macroeconomic stability even in the face of numerous sanctions,” Peskov added in the E -Mail comments.
Unlike many American allies who became trading tariffs in Trump's announcement from early April, Russia was saved new import tariffs, when Trump announced its broadly extensive list of new obligations that should be imposed on imports from over 180 countries, allegedly directed to increasing the global commercial game.
Russia was omitted, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said Axios Media OutletBecause American sanctions against the country for the invasion of Ukraine in 2022 have already excluded “any significant trade” between the two nations. CNBC asked for further comments from the White House and is waiting for an answer.
Analysts ask about this claim, saying that Russia still had more trade with the US than many other countries that were on the list of tariffs such as Brunei and Mauritius. By the way, Ukraine was affected by a 10%tariff.
Global market Turbulence prompted Trump to temporarily reduce the tariff rates In the case of imports from most countries – with the exception of China – up to 10% for 90 days. Whether negotiations with various trade partners in the meantime can lead to compromise, and ultimately commercial agreements are highly uncertain.
Russia's reaction to Trump's commercial duties was mixed, and the state media observed funds and market rainfall with a mixture of a cool unit, some fears for global economic variability and a bit of Schadenfreude in turbulence hitting the West.
Analysts say that the destabilization of the Trump of the existing “global world order”, which Moscow would like to undress-is also seen as a potential benefit of the Kremlin tariff, the analysts say. They warn that Russia is not resistant to the influence of any trade war.
“On the surface you see many giggers and a real relief (in Russia) that for the first time Russia is not in the center of attention,” Anton Barbashin, a Russian political analyst and director of the editorial office of the Riddle magazine, said CNBC on Wednesday, noting that “Russia is perceived better in the world of bipolarity.”
“Russia wants a less global USA, which is involved in a constant conflict with China (though not war), so that Washington does not have enough time for Europe,” he said in the comments E -Mail.
Russian President Vladimir Putin takes part in the Congress of the Russian Association of Industrs and Entrepreneurs in Moscow in Russia on March 18, 2025.
Maxim Shemetov | Reuters
Barbashin said that two schools of thinking appeared in Russia – one recognizing the damage that the trade war could do to the country, and the other admits that weakened economic rivals bring Russia geopolitically.
“Russia is still dependent on the global economy and high demand for its export. If the global recession is to take place, it can seriously harm Russia's pockets. However, there is a different level of analysis in Russia, which suggests that the more (Trump) it makes a transatlantic relationship harm, the easier it would be for Moscow to part Europe in matters related to Ukraine.”
Why is there no tariffs?
Russian analysts wondered why Russia was not subjected to any tariffs and whether its exclusion could be part of the White House plan to try to get a lever over Moscow in every peace conversation in Ukraine.
“The White House said that Russia was not hit by tariffs, because there was no trade between two countries because of Western sanctions … This is not entirely true,” noted Alexander KOLYANDR, a senior member of the Center for European Policy Analysis.
He noted that the export of Russian goods to the US was 30-year-old levels of about $ 3 billion, and in this period exported goods worth $ 526 million to Russia.
“These are small numbers when it comes to general trade in the US, but for example Lesotho, an African kingdom with a population of 2 million, sells even less for the USA – about $ 2 billion dollars a year – but a 50% tariff was affected,” noted KOLYANDR.
According to the formula used to determine the tariffs for trading partners, Russia should have faced a 40% tariff based on the numbers 2024. KOLYANDR noted, however, that in recent pre -war years Russia and the USA enjoyed relatively sustainable tradeWhich would mean that Russia hit a 10% tariff rate instead.
President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin arrive at a joint press conference after a meeting in Helsinki, July 16, 2018.
Grigory Dukor Reuters
KOLYANDR said CNBC on Thursday that if in the White House there is a desire to use tariffs as a way to introduce Moscow for peace negotiations in Ukraine, “this is an illusion.”
“The size (trade) is very small, and even before the war the United States was not a significant commercial partner of Russia compared to places such as the European Union, Türkiye, China or India.”
“Russia needs, for example, some technological items from the United States, such as spare parts for Boeing (aircraft). In addition to Tungsten and Titanium, Russia has little to offer the United States, which is not elastic, in other words, which cannot be purchased elsewhere. So I don't think that trading tariffs are something that can be seduced.”
Russia is not resistant
The World Trade Organization warned on Wednesday that the prospects of global trade “deteriorated violently” as a result of the Trump tariff regime.
Based on the current duties, including the 90-day suspension of “mutual tariffs”, it is expected that the world trade in goods will fall by 0.2% in 2025. He added that global economic growth takes a direct blow from the decline of global trade volumes.
Even if Russia is not a direct goal, it will certainly bear side damage resulting from tariffs and a potential trade war, analysts agree with a decrease in prices and demand for the main export principles of Russia for oil, which have a serious economic risk.
Russia is already working under significant national inflation – which reached 10.3% in March – and the country's central bank has recently maintained high interest rates of 21% in order to try to try Deal with the price of war led by the war.
Customers buy dairy and dairy products at Auchan Retail International Hypermarket in Moscow, Russia.
Bloomberg Bloomberg Getty images
“If the trade war pushes the global economy in recession, and especially if the overall trade drops, which means less goods crossing the globe, this would mean that the demand for oil also drops if a recession occurs, and this is painful for Russia,” said KOLYANDR CNBC.
“But Russian problems do not end with oil. In the case of global instability and inflation growth and, probably, a decrease in oil income, the Russian central bank will be difficult to start alleviating its basic rate. This does not have more economic number.