Russian President Vladimir Putin visits the exhibition at the Central Museum of the Great Patriotic War from Poklonnaya Gora in Moscow, Russia, April 30, 2025.
Alexander Kazakov By Reuters
Russia's response to Iran's call for help is carefully observed on Monday After the US bombed Tehran's nuclear facilities at the weekend – But Moscow may not offer his ally.
Attacks on Iranian nuclear places, which President Donald Trump described as “blur“He left the Islamic Republic applying for support from several friends on the global stage. Foreign Minister Iran Abbas Araghchi went to Moscow on Monday In the case of “serious consultations” with Russian President Vladimir Putin How to answer the assaults.
Iran helped Russia with military drones throughout the war in Ukraine, but analysts say that there may be very little Moscow or prefers to reciprocate.
“Iran massively supported Putin's war with Ukraine with weapons and technology. During his trip to Moscow, the Minister of Foreign Affairs Iran Abbas Araghchi may now ask Moscow to reverse favor,” said Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg Bank on Monday.
“However, Putin probably does not have to offer except for some words. He needs his weapon for constant aggression against Ukraine,” he noted.
Russia must also walk on a thin line between calming and helping the ally Iran and the maintenance of American sweet, because it aims to restore the bond with Russia's administration of Russia Donald Trump.
“If Putin irritated Trump over Iran in any significant way, Trump could change his hands and impose new heavy sanctions to Russia and/or weaken Putin's position in other ways,” said Schmieding.
Yet, Moscow's reaction to the escalating crisis has been mutedWhen Russia calls Iran and Israel to negotiate a quiet ending of the crisis.
Winning, losing a bit
Analysts say that the Iranian conflict can strengthen Russia's position in Ukraine, because it distracts the attention of the West – and potentially resources – from Ukraine. Higher oil prices can also mean higher export revenues for the oil manufacturer of Russian war boxes.
At the same time, Russia observes how another ally in the Middle East is weakened, eroding its own abutment in the region. Russia has already seen how he had recently crumbled from last year's overthrow of the Bashara Al Assad regime in Syria, which doubts the future of Moscow air bases and the Navy.
Russia may lose even more on potentially lucrative investment and infrastructure projects if Iran is seriously destabilized. The problem for Moscow is to now assess how much she has to win or lose, helping or abandoning Iran.
“Moscow herself seems to be undecided, what to do from the New War in the Middle East,” Nikita Smagin, an expert on Iranian foreign and national policy in Carnegie Rossia Eurasia Center, he said in the analysis.
“On the one hand, Russia has invested large in various projects in Iran over the past three years, all of which could now be wasted. At the same time, Moscow hopes to use the Middle East instability through rising oil prices and decreasing interest in Ukraine.”
Russian President Vladimir Putin (R) turns his hands with President Iran Masoud Pezeshkian (L) during their meeting, on October 11, 2024 at Ashgabat, Turkmenistan.
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Excluding the possibility of granting Iran of all military assistance, Smagin said that a greater problem for Moscow is a threat to all Iranian projects in which he recently invested, including oil and gas projects, infrastructure and transit routes.
“A few days before the start of the Israeli surgery, Iran Ambassador in Moscow he said that Russia was the largest foreign investor in the country in 2024. The ambassador did not specify any amounts of investments, but the Russian investments were estimated In the previous year at $ 2.76 billion. Moscow planned to invest around $ 8 billion in oil and gas projects themselves, “said Smagin.
“Now the future of these projects has doubts.”