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Russian troops are moving towards the Ukrainian region of Dnipro, bypassing the expected heavy battle east of Donetsk.
Ukraine has been preparing for urban warfare in Pokrovsk, the main logistics and transport hub for the rest of Ukraine's controlled Donetsk region, since the summer.
But Russian forces pushing from the south are now heading west of Pokrovsk and are less than 7km from capturing the highway leading to the Dnipropetrovsk region, according to the Deep State mapping group, which has ties to Ukraine's defense ministry.
“They realized that they would lose a lot of their forces trying to take Pokrovsk so they decided to follow a different strategy and move south and surround,” Andriy Cherniak, a senior Ukrainian military intelligence officer, told the Financial Times. on Sunday. “They're going to try to cut off all access to Pokrovsk so that our troops can leave there.”
Russia's defense ministry announced on Sunday the seizure of the Yantarnoye settlement in the Donetsk region, about 50 kilometers south of Pokrovsk, following “offensive operations”.
“The border of Dnipropetrovsk region is now about 6.5km away,” Russian military blogger Voenkor Kotenok posted on his Telegram channel on Sunday.
The next largest city within Dnipropetrovsk is Pavlograd, a major Ukrainian military base. The region also includes Dnipro, the fourth largest city in Ukraine.
How quickly Russian troops can take the highway to Dnipropetrovsk, depends on the size of castles in the area and Ukrainian workers, who were increasing short supply.
One Ukrainian soldier with a brigade fighting in the Pokrovsk area, who spoke to the FT on condition of anonymity, said the area would be a disaster, describing it as “deep, muddy and impassable”.
Russian forces gained thousands of square kilometers of Donetsk region in 2024. The Center for the Study of War, a think tank based in Washington, said that Russia took about 4,200 sq km of Ukrainian territory last year, most of it in the Donetsk region. .
This momentum enabled them to take the highway to the Dnipropetrovsk region, which would cut off the Ukrainian forces in Pokrovsk and force the Ukrainian forces to defend from two sides at the same time.
“They're trying to get the biggest territory so that when their forces are gone, they have something to negotiate with,” Cherniak said.
Ukraine announced on Saturday that it had taken its first North Korean prisoner of war from Russia's southern Kursk region, providing further evidence of Pyongyang's involvement.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the kidnapped men were receiving medical attention, adding that “the world needs to know the truth about what happened”.
Ukraine launched a to push again in Russia's Kursk region last week, after losing half of the territory taken from its invasion in August. Staying on Russian territory is still seen by Ukraine and its allies as the key to any potential negotiations.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken told reporters in Seoul on Monday that Kursk is important to Ukraine. “It's certainly something that can contribute to any negotiations that may take place next year,” he added.
Animation by Steven Bernard