By Elena Fabrichnaya and Gleb Bryanski
MOSCOW (Reuters) – The Russian ruble is expected to continue changing hands at around 100 per U.S. dollar in early 2025 and gradually decline to 108 by the end of the year, a Reuters poll of 10 economists showed on Friday.
The ruble fell to its lowest level in nearly 2-1/2 years in November as the US imposed new financial sanctions on Russia, but has since recovered some ground after the central bank stepped in to support it.
Many analysts believe that the 100 mark against the dollar is a new level of balance as the situation with foreign trade transactions, disrupted due to sanctions, stability, while other factors will support the ruble.
Analysts noted that the first quarter of the year is generally good for the ruble as imports, travel abroad and foreign debt payments decrease.
The ruble fell to 103.7 against the US dollar on Friday after the central bank announced that it would withdraw some monetary support in the first working week of 2025 after the New Year break.
Analysts predicted that the central bank will hold its benchmark interest rate at 21% in the first half of 2025 after surprising the markets in Dec. 20 by keeping rates unchanged.
“We expect the central bank to keep the key rate at 21% at the meeting on February 14. We believe that lending will continue to slow down, aligning with the governor's forecast for 2025,” said Mikhail Vasilyev of Sovcombank.
Russia's central bank raised its key rate to the highest level in more than 20 years as it tries to curb inflation, which analysts expect to reach 9.8% this year, and counter an economic overhang due to excessive government spending.
Analysts forecast GDP growth of 3.9% in 2024, up from their previous call of 3.8%. By 2025, economic growth is projected to slow sharply to 1.6% due to central bank monetary tightening.
Analysts foresee inflation falling to 6.6%, close to the regulator's target of 4%, by the end of next year, creating room for the central bank to reduce its rate to 18% in the fourth quarter of 2025.