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The warnings about empty store shelves were in the headers, because many press reports indicate Directors General of the best retail stores in America told President Trump that the prolonged trade war would lead to deficiencies.
When can this become a reality and what product categories will be affected first?
Treasury secretary Scott Bessent recently described Half war with China as “unbalanced”.
Already a decrease in production orders from China and a decrease in reservations and registers of Chinese freight ships to the USA, the outskirts of the national supply chain closer to the turning point. But when the supply chain reaches a point without a phrase, when currently detained orders require re -replenishing the retail chain?
Clothes and footwear is one key area of a consumer product to watch. In 2024, imports from China accounted for about 37% of all imports of clothing in the USA and about 58% of the import of footwear in the USA.
“These too high high tariff rates act as an import ban,” said Steve Lamar, president of American Apparel and Footwear Association.
According to Aafa, in 2024, the average tariff foot for the import of clothing and footwear from China was about 18.5%, but for many it is much higher due to additional responsibilities. “When you add 145%, you will receive an average number exceeding 160%, but in some cases the actual tariff exceeds 200%,” said Lamar.
Because such a large part of clothing and footwear comes from China, the date of entry into force of the tariffs gave companies a small opportunity to change the acquisition. “Soon they will translate into product shortages, because the orders will be canceled or the goods are stored in warehouses until a trade agreement can be determined,” said Lamar.
Companies expect many influence Price increase to consumer cautionand orders of large tickets increased About waiting for a sticker's shock. Recent parcel data in the US illustrate the remedies of the tariff that companies implement to manage the delicate balance of supply and demand. According to Sonar data, Chinese imports were seen in the last orders of Walmart, Ikea and Target.
Falling visits Chinese freight ship
But the risk of retail deficiencies will largely depend on how long the “unbalanced” tariff levels last, and how companies Wrestling on the front In the early months of 2025 based on Trump's threats. AND The Minister of the Chinese government said recently“Currently, there is absolutely no negotiations on the economy and trade between China and the USA”
If the tariffs actually fall and are considered easier to manage to absorb, production orders can resume and the parcels may start again. But if high tariffs persist, the expectations are that the American consumer will have to face more persistent shortcomings, especially when Chinese suppliers focus on other markets. If this happens, the American supply chain would have to compete for production capacity.
The next few months will provide key information on the health of the supply chain, said Michael Salerno, Vice President for International Banking at FNBO (First National Bank of Omaha), whose customer base is small and medium -sized companies.
“We look at the volumes of port containers in mid-May, June and July,” said Salerno. “We will look at the volume of containers and how long it will be. It is too early to say.”
New data from the maritime intelligentsia show a further increase in canceled cruises as a result of screeching of an ocean freight order.
“Many of these empty cruises were announced with a very limited earlier warning for forwarders,” said Alan Murphy, general director of Sea -intelligence.
The canceled sails that have happened for the first time on the trade route in Asia and North West Coast are now raised on routes from Asia to ports on the east coast.
“In the case of the east coast in Asia and north-north-north, there is now a large increase in empty cruises for a week starting on May 5, which is quite extreme,” said Murphy.
In recent weeks covering at the end of April and May carriers have planned empty ships equal to 35% -42% of the planned capacity.
Low margin, rapidly moving goods disappear first
Experts from the supply chain say that lower -class stores will be strongly hit by tariffs on cheap imports, and if they are based on wrestling, it will be visible much faster.
“The US retail system is built on speed and scale,” said Casey Armstrong, CMO Shipbob, a global implementation platform and a supply chain. “When this engine falls over-whether it is from tariffs, customs delays or with restrictions-it is the lowest margin, the fastest moving goods that disappear first.”
Armstrong warned that the first signs of empty shelves will appear, in which imports sensitive to the price dominates on the shelf-as toys, games and budget household goods, in addition to clothing. “These are canaries in a coal mine of disturbed supply chain,” he said.
Armstrong believes that toys and seasonal goods for children, including items back to school, will disappear first due to the shortened times of implementation and the term tariffs.
Fast fashion and clothing will appear – basics, t -shirts, leggings, socks and clothes for children. “There is often a quick rotation on clothing, and thin margins mean low buffer supplies,” said Armstrong.
According to Armstrong, cheap household goods and supply of consumer electronics will be limited, because although many products in these categories are not “installed in China”, their elements are often, according to Armstrong. “In addition, many products are often refreshed (telephones, earphones, etc.). Some Amazon sellers and shops with large boxes can have gaps in cheaper electronics and accessories,” he said.
But even when general orders and cruises from China are falling, this is not a simple line for a rapid decline in every seller. Home Depot recently increased orders for the USA from Chinese suppliers, according to the imported Genius import.
The supplies of large box retailers are not the only shop windows that can experience wrestling pain depending on the heaviness and length of the trade war, and Armstrong expects Dropshippers (companies or people who run online stores without storing stocks) and those who rely on De minimis tax exemption from China It also affects on May 2, when the trade gap is closed.
Jonathan Gold, Vice President of the Network and Customs Policy at the National Retail Federation, said according to the latest Global Port Tracker The report, soothing agents, such as loading loads, led to higher levels of imports, so more reserves were ahead of the tariffs, but warned that the report also indicated that the volume of loads would fall significantly due to canceled or delayed orders due to tariffs.
Gold warned that consumers should be prepared for less wrestling and fewer choices as well as increased prices, especially at small retail sellers.
“The effects will probably become tangible in the coming months, because shipments subject to higher tariffs begin to arrive and go through retail reserves,” said Gold. “Uncertainty around tariffs is difficult for companies, especially for small companies that are currently preparing for critical winter orders.”