South Africa-Trump Land can move from help to trade

South Africa seems to be at a crossroads in its wax and decreasing connection with the United States following the controversial decision of President Donald Trump last week to reduce the country's financial assistance.

Trump said South Africa was pursuing what he called “unfair and immoral practices” against the White Minority African Community and by bringing a genocide case against Israel in the International Court of Justice (ICJ) in December 2023.

His move sent shock waves to South Africa, with experts fearing that he could continue to use this opportunity to end preferential access to the US market through his special US and Africa trade program known as the Law of Growth and Opportunities of the Law Africa (Agoa).

The two countries generally had a friendly relations since the end of the rule of the White Minority in 1994, when the antipartheid icon and the Nobel Prize winner Nelson Mandela was selected as the first black president of South Africa.

Although it took another 14 years to eliminate the Mandela from his “list of terrorist observations” for his role in the fight against Apartheid's racist system, which was introduced by the then -African rulers in South Africa in 1948.

The last tension erupted a few days after Trump's office last month when South Africa President Cyril Ramafosa Signed by law the Alienation Billwhich allows the government to confiscate the land without compensation in certain circumstances.

Trump's response came last week When it threatens to reduce future funding Above what he called “terrible things, terrible things” that does the country's leadership.

The US President has also accused of South Africa, without any foundation, in “confiscation of land” and “doing things that are perhaps much more in this way.”

He doubled in the face of the denial of the rage of the South African government and signed an executive order last Friday for freezing.

This adds to nearly $ 440 million (353 million British pounds) – the amount of aid allocated in 2023 – although the US Embassy in South Africa subsequently stated that the funding from PEPFAR, an American program that counteract the global distribution of HIV ., will not be affectedAdding the warning that “not all Pepfar activities will resume.”

South Africa is one of the largest beneficiaries of PEPFAR, which contributes about 17% to its HIV/AIDS program, in which about 5.5 million people receive antiretroviral.

In his executive order, Trump also accused of South Africa for “shocking neglect of the rights of his citizens” and occupies “aggressive positions” against the United States and his ally Israel in his work of MNG.

In addition to freezing the aid, Trump suggested that the African Community refugees help, who are the most descendants of early Dutch and French settlers, to settle in the United States.

His position has played in the hands of the conservative African lobbying groups, including Afriforum and Solidarity, who want the government to cancel what he calls “competition -based laws”, such as affirmative actions and black economic empowerment.

This is ringing with the views of the nearby Trump Elon Musk adviser, the technological billionaire who was born in South Africa. He questioned X why Ramafosa has “open racist ownership laws”.

This is not the first time the land reform policy in South Africa has attracted Trump's rage.

In 2018, during his first Presidency, He accused the South African authorities of Farmers' Large -Square Murders “ And he asked his then Secretary of State to look at the government's question “seizure of land from white farmers”.

While Trump's remarks at that time sparked a reaction, Dr. Oscar van Herden, a political analyst at the University of Johannesburg, told the BBC that “there was never this kind of radical actions taken to the extent of the execution order “.

With their relationship now in an uncertain country – both sides weigh their next move.

At the Commercial Front Donald Makei, executive director of Johannesburg-based trading consulting firm XA Global Trade Advisors, said while the United States is one of the largest partners in South Africa, this is not its “closest trading partner”.

South Africa exports various minerals to the United States, including platinum, iron and manganese.

It is also one of the largest exporters under AGOA, generating about $ 2.7 billion in revenue in 2023, most of all the sale of vehicles, jewelry and metals.

“Over the years, this relationship has gathered and reduced. It has never been terribly strong (since the rule of the white minority ended in South Afric Years and I don't think it's South Africa's fault, “Maque told the BBC.

But he admitted that South Africa has done “many” in recent years to annoy the United States.

“These irritations are also accumulated with President Trump … This is seen as an opportunity to put South Africa in his place.”

Dr. Herden has put the change in dynamics partly to “global shifts” and “new competition that is moving against the United States” by the likes of China, India and Brazil.

While experts talked about the benefits of Agoa, which appeared for the latest review this year, they agreed that the impact may not be as significant as a known fear.

Agoa was introduced in 2000 And it provides permissible Sshahari African countries duty -free access to the United States for more than 1,800 products.

Majeya said he would be surprised if South Africa continued to take advantage of this preferential agreement after the review.

“My instinct is whatever the reason Trump is upset by South Africa, AGOA would be the easiest mechanism to be used for punishment South Africa at the moment.”

Dr. Van Herden added that even if the agreement is not renewed or South Africa is ultimately excluded, those businesses that are currently benefiting from it will bear short-term losses but will be able to bounce in a few years.

He said that the government of President Ramafosa was currently chosen a diplomatic route – although the apparent lack of interest of the Trump administration in diplomacy drastically reduced the chances of success.

This was probably not aided on the outside of South Africa Ronald Lamola Blunt on Wednesday of Trump's relocation, saying that “there was no chance” South Africa would withdraw its case against Israel in ICJ.

“Standing our principles sometimes has consequences, but we remain claiming that this is important to the world and the rule of law.” Lamol told Financial TimesS

South Africa has accused Israel of committing a genocide against Palestinians living in Gaza, denies that Israel denies.

In the meantime, Ramafosa, as president of the G -20, has announced that he will send a delegation around the world to clarify South Africa's internal and foreign policy – as Washington is a key stop.

South Africa took over the Presidency of G -20, a group of countries that meet to discuss global economic and political issues, in December last year, considering it as an opportunity to strengthen their international situation.

But in Snub for South Africa, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has announced that he will not attend the G -20 meeting of Foreign Ministers, which takes place next week in Johannesburg.

“My job is to progress the national interests of America, not to lose taxpayer money, or to code anti -Americanism,” he said.

South Africa is part of the BRICS and the Union of major developing countries, including Brazil, Russia, India and China, which is trying to challenge the political and economic power of the more common nations of North America and Western Europe.

G -n Maque believes it will be difficult for South Africa and other nations to navigate relations with the United States under the “most unprofitable politician in the world”, which suggests that they will have to see BRICS as an alternative partner as an alternative partner S

But significantly for South Africa, the European Union (EU), one of its largest trading partners, confirmed its support for the country.

Antonio Costa, President of the European Council – which defines the general political direction and EU priorities – Posted on X on Monday that he spoke with Ramafosa on the phone to emphasize “the EU's commitment to deepen his ties to South Africa.”

If the offensive offensive of South Africa fails, Van Herden, suggests that the government can choose to “negotiate” and use the minerals it provides to the United States as a “chip market”.

But he expresses a warning: “South Africa will have to think very carefully about how they play this chess game (where) that the initial gambit is already made by President Trump and Elon Musk.”