Constitution orders the 119th Congress to begin at noon on Friday.
And the first order of business in the House is to elect a Constitutional officer for the legislative branch of government: the Speaker of the House.
Only the House elects the Speaker. And the House will not do anything – I will repeat that – until it elects a Speaker.
It cannot swear in Members until the House tap Speaker and you have sworn. Then the Speaker swears—with the whole body, in abundance. Then the House must approve a package of laws to regulate day-to-day operations. That is when the House can debate bills, vote and construct committees for hearings.
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If the House fails to elect a Speaker in the first round, it must proceed to the second round.
And forward.
Consider for a moment that the House had never held a second election for Speaker in a century before the donnybrook two years ago. It took four votes to re-elect former House Speaker Frederick Gillett, R-Mass., in 1923.
What is the past? introduction for the House. Consider how the House spent 15 rounds in five days before electing former Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., in January, 2023. The speaker remained absent — and so, the House freeze – 22 days after the Republicans rejected McCarthy nine. months later. House Republicans tapped House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, R-La., for Speaker. Scalise withdrew his nomination before there was a floor vote. House GOPers tapped Rep. Jim Jordan, R-Ohio, for Speaker. But Jordan lost three consecutive elections for Speaker on the floor of the House, bleeding support in each election. House Republicans are now nominating House Majority Whip Tom Emmer, R-Minn., for Speaker. Emmer withdrew hours later.
Fox News Digital spoke briefly with former Speaker Kevin McCarthy during a rare appearance on Capitol Hill.
House Republicans ultimately nominated House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., for the job. The Louisiana Republican won the floor. But some conservatives have been disappointed in Johnson ever since. They noted how he had worked on multiple, short-term loans from last November onward. They did not like that he allowed the debt down to help Ukraine. They challenged him to spend another temporary amount in September. They really didn't like the way he worked with Democrats on big, must-do laws. And there was a mistake in the 1,500-page temporary application package that Mr. Trump and Elon Musk drilled from afar in December. Johnson asked President Trump for another spending package – one that included an increase in the debt ceiling. But 38 House Republicans approved the bill.
So Johnson's tenure was troubled. And that's why he's on the hook come Friday afternoon during the election for Speaker. Everyone on Capitol Hill is on tenterhooks when it comes to wrapping this up quickly.
Here's what will happen Friday afternoon:
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House Speaker Kevin McCumber will preside until the House elects a Speaker. The first order of business is the “call of the House.” That's where the House establishes where its elected Members are, just vote “present.” The house should enter of 434 members: 219 Republicans and 215 Democrats. There was one gap. Former Rep. Matt Gaetz, R-Fla., resigned in the fall — and said he wasn't “committed” to serving in the new Congress, even if he won re-election.
Watch to see if there are any absentees from that House call. Fox is told that Democrats who have struggled with health problems recently – including Reps. Raul Grijalva, D-Ariz., Dwight Evans, D-Penn., and former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., may attend. But the Speaker's choice is about numbers. How many lawmakers report to the House will dictate votes in the Speaker election.
Then there is the choice of languages. Incoming House Republican Conference Chairwoman Lisa McClain, R-Mich., will nominate Johnson for Speaker. House Democratic Caucus Chairman Pete Aguilar, D-Calif., will nominate House Majority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, DN.Y. Then anyone else can put someone else's name in the voting position.
Then, the House calls the list of elected Members alphabetically. Each member stands and answers verbally, calling their choice by name. Rep. Alma Adams, DN.C., Robert Aderholt, R-Ala., and the aforementioned Aguilar are the first names off the block.
(Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)
But lawmakers can vote for whoever they want. Including people who are not Members of the House. That is why there were elections that were held during the years of the late Gen. Colin Powell, Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., Sen. Former Jeff Sessions, R-Ala., and former US Secretary of State David Walker.
Here's what Johnson — or anyone else — has to do to win Speaker:
The winning candidate must obtain a clear majority of all Members voting for the candidate by name.
So let's say there are 434 members and they all vote for someone by name. The magic number is 218. If Johnson can get the votes of all 219 Republicans, he will win. If Johnson gets 218 votes, he will win as well. But 217? No dice. Under those circumstances Johnson would have outscored Jeffries, 217-215 – with two votes going to other voters. But “multiple votes” don't win. 217 is not a clear majority of House Members voting for a person by name. The House must hold another election to elect the Speaker.
Fox is told there are 12 to 17 Republicans who would vote for someone other than Johnson. And some Republicans are still worried about their choices.
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Here's what to watch for: Members who vote “now.”
Instead of voting for someone other than Johnson, some Republicans may protest by voting “now.” The “current” vote does not count for Johnson.
So let's do some hypothetical math here:
Let's say 434 Members voted. Jeffries receives support from all 215 Democrats. Three Republicans vote “now.” In other words, not to vote for any candidate by name. Johnson got 216 votes. He has the most votes. But more importantly, only 431 Members voted for someone by name. 216 is the absolute majority of 431. 434 does not matter under these circumstances. So Johnson becomes Speaker.
But there is a big risk for many Republicans who vote “now.”
Consider this situation:
A total of 215 Democrats voted for Jeffries. But five Republicans vote “now.” Johnson reports 214 votes. 429 members vote for someone else by name. The magic number here is 215. Guess who the Speaker is? Jeffreys. He organized the majority of all Members who nominate a candidate by name.
(Joe Raedle/Getty Images)
As they say in the movies, “You are playing a very dangerous game, Mr. Bond.”
With such a thin margin in the House, Republicans they are completely worried with fire if they are too beautiful by half. Yes. Others may not want to re-elect Johnson as Speaker. But they certainly don't want Jeffries.
So it's hard to say what happens on Friday afternoon. If the House procrastinates for too long, this could delay the certification of Electoral College votes on Monday. The House and Senate must meet in a Joint Session of Congress on January 6 to confirm the results of the election. No House Speaker? No Joint Meeting.
But something will happen if this continues. Johnson's loyalists and leading Republicans included right-wing ideologues, the Freedom Caucus and other independents. Expect an all-out showdown between the two parties if Republicans struggle to pick a Speaker.
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And as we've written before, what's past is prologue.
The long battle over the House of Representatives serves as a prelude to looming battles between Republicans when it comes to governing. That's to say nothing of implementing one plank of President-elect Trump's plans.